7 July,2024 NIICE Commentary 9326
Princess Nicole Nasol

The recent naval encounter between the Philippine Navy’s Naval Special Operations Group (NAVSOG) and the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) on June 17th in the South China Sea served as a stark reminder of the volatility and high stakes involved in the ongoing territorial disputes in the region. This direct incident, which resulted in a severe injury to a Filipino navy, is considered the most violent encounter between the two parties to date. Understandably, it has evoked strong emotions among the Filipino people, stirring sentiments of patriotism and deep concerns over the nation’s sovereignty.

To ensure long-term stability and prevent further escalation of tensions in the South China Sea, a calm, prudent, and diplomatic approach is essential. As the insightful author Robert Greene notes in his work “The Law of Human Nature,” emotional reactions can often narrow perspectives and lead to decisions that may backfire. In this context, maintaining composure and pursuing constructive dialogue is vital for effectively managing such complex and delicate geopolitical disputes.

In response to past crises like the Scarborough Shoal standoff in 2012, the Philippines has consistently shown the effectiveness of diplomatic solutions over military confrontations. During the administration of former Philippine President Benigno Aquino III, the country chose to pursue a diplomatic solution by engaging lawyers, rather than deploying naval and marine forces to confront China. This approach remains steadfast today, as the Philippines continues to respond assertively to actions while avoiding violence, aiming to uphold its sovereignty and rights without causing harm to any involved parties.

Diplomacy at work

Engaging legal avenues, particularly through the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), serves to strengthen the Philippines’ commitment to upholding international law and peacefully asserting its maritime rights. However, it is important to note that UNCLOS lacks enforcement mechanisms to regulate and punish those who violate international law. Consequently, the only way to encourage compliance is through the collective pressure exerted by the international community. The Philippines has actively pursued this approach, seeking reinforcement through the visits of President Bongbong Marcos to various countries worldwide. These visits aim to garner support for the arbitral ruling of UNCLOS against China’s illegitimate territorial sea claim known as the “ten dash line.” Additionally, the Philippines hopes to attract foreign investors to diversify its capital outlays, boost economic gains, enhance security, and allocate funds for the defense sector, particularly in the context of the ongoing military modernization plan known as Re-horizon 3.

To further demonstrate its proactive approach, Manila recently submitted an extended continental shelf claim to the United Nations on June 15th. This submission underscores the Philippines’ commitment to garner support and cooperation from other Southeast Asian nations. It is expected to elicit reactions from neighboring countries in the region. Furthermore, Manila has employed a diligent and strategic approach to resolving boundary disputes, particularly with Vietnam. In this regard, it is highly encouraged for the Philippine President to collaborate with Vietnam, Brunei, and Malaysia to propose a joint UN resolution advocating for the “complete demilitarization” of the South China Sea. These diplomatic efforts not only seek resolution but also foster regional solidarity in addressing shared security concerns.

Defense Alliances

The utilization of the Assertive Transparency Strategy has proven to be a valuable tool in addressing the challenges posed by the CCP’s imperialist ambitions and illegal activities in the South China Sea. However, this strategy has not effectively deterred China from its actions. In light of this, the Philippines must now explore alternative approaches or revisit previous recommendations to foster consensus among all stakeholders in the region.

It is important to recognize that any deviation from conventional practices in handling the situation in the West Philippine Sea (WPS) may elicit an unfavorable reaction from China. Thus, if the Philippines chooses to adopt a different military strategic approach than the established Rotation and Reprovision missions (RORE), the government must be prepared to proactively manage the potential consequences of responsive actions from the Chinese Coast Guard. China’s continued pressure on the Philippines serves as a deterrent to other nations, signalling the repercussions they may face if they impede China’s interests.

Nevertheless, the Philippines can rely on its allies for support in times of defense challenges. Beyond legal and diplomatic maneuvers, defense alliances with like-minded nations strengthen the Philippines’ strategic position in the region. Notably, quadrilateral military drills involving the Philippines, the United States, Japan, and Australia have been conducted in the disputed South China Sea. Additionally, the Philippines and the US recently commenced the largest-ever Balikatan Exercise focused on defense, with the participation of over 17,000 American, Filipino, Australian, and French military. These allied nations have expressed concerns regarding the current situation in the Philippines and have affirmed their readiness to assist if needed.

The United States, in particular, has a Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines, underscoring their commitment to each other’s defense. However, it is important to acknowledge that the US is currently heavily engaged in the conflict in Ukraine and faces challenges in the Red Sea with the Houthis. Given these circumstances, it is unlikely that the US will engage in a major conflict , raising concerns about its ability to fulfill its commitments as a reliable ally.

The recent confrontation between the Philippine Navy and the Chinese Coast Guard in the West Philippine Sea highlights that this event was not accidental or misunderstood, but rather a deliberate and orchestrated incident. Despite the serious injury sustained by a sailor, it is crucial to emphasize that the activation of Mutual Defense protocols remains within the discretion of the Philippines.

Towards a New Approach

As we look to the future, the Philippines must explore innovative approaches that can complement traditional strategies. One potential strategy worth considering is the adoption of a demilitarized and civilian-focused approach, an idea that has been suggested over the years. During the recent committee hearing on foreign affairs in the senate, many recommendations were raised. Given the long-standing military-oriented RORE strategy of the Philippine Navy, revitalizing interactions between the Philippine Coast Guard (PCC) and the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) holds promise. Dialogue and discussions between the Philippine and Chinese military could also serve as constructive steps forward. Additionally, engaging with international humanitarian organizations as intermediaries may offer viable solutions.

However, it is crucial to approach each option with meticulous assessment and strategic planning. The paramount objective should be to prioritize peaceful resolutions, recognizing the exorbitant costs that conflict entails. Addressing this issue requires collaborative efforts and the involvement of diverse agencies, acknowledging its global significance that extends beyond the borders of the Philippines.

Princess Nicole Nasol is a Research Intern at NIICE who is currently pursuing a BA in Global Affairs and Diplomacy at Miriam College, Philippines.