21 June 2024, NIICE Commentary 9282
Rekha J
Over the years, the bilateral relations between the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and Russia have experienced a dynamic trajectory characterised by several highs and lows in diplomatic engagement and strategic cooperation. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the newly established Russian government showed a diminished interest in North Korea, simultaneously formalising diplomatic relations with South Korea. However, the ascension of Vladimir Putin to power in 2000 marked a significant shift in Russian foreign policy towards North Korea. Putin proactively sought to restore and strengthen ties with Pyongyang, as evidenced by his meeting with Kim Jong il, the second-generation leader of North Korea.
When it comes to his recent visit to Pyongyang on June 18 to engage with Kim Jong-un, the current North Korean leader, represents the first such visit in 24 years. This meeting is indicative of a strategic recalibration of Moscow’s foreign policy. Observing this bilateral relationship contend that Russia’s primary motivation is to enhance cooperation with North Korea as a strategy to avoid the restrictions imposed by US-led sanctions amidst escalating tensions.
Particularly in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia has found itself increasingly isolated on the international stage, principally by Western nations. Therefore, fostering healthy relations with Asian nations, including North Korea, has become imperative for Russia as it seeks to secure support and bolster its geopolitical standing against the backdrop of widespread international censure and economic sanctions.
During the meeting, Putin and Kim Jong-un signed a mutual defence treaty that guaranteed each country to provide military assistance to each other with all necessary means in case of any armed aggression against either party. In a way, this agreement echoes the 1961 treaty that provided similar protective measures before it lapsed following the collapse of the USSR. Additionally, the treaty encompasses provisions for advancing cooperation and exchange in the fields of science and technology, including space exploration, biology, and peaceful atomic energy. Overall, the visit has elevated their relationship to a new level of “comprehensive strategic partnership.”
For North Korea, the new treaty, which formalises the bilateral relationship on a strategic, long-term basis, holds significant implications. Given North Korea’s prolonged isolation, recognition and support from a major power such as Russia are substantial in the international arena. Even though the nation is under several UN Security Council sanctions, explicit support from Russia is very crucial as it navigates its isolated status on the world stage. Conversely, Moscow also benefits from North Korea’s full support in the Ukraine conflict, which, after all, created allegations from US and South Korean officials suggesting that North Korea has been supplying artillery, missiles, and other military equipment for use in Ukraine.
From the Chinese perspective, they made the statement that the meeting between Putin and Kim Jong-un is viewed as a routine bilateral exchange between the two sovereign states, and the aim of their senior leader’s meeting is for more bilateral cooperation and exchanges. However, the recent strengthening of North Korea-Russia relations led to implicit provocations in the East Asia as the North continues its belligerence towards the South. Should these multifaceted relations extend further, China could find itself in a difficult position, given its interest in maintaining regional stability and avoiding conflicts in the region.
This burgeoning Russia-North Korea alliance has caused significant concern for the United States and South Korea, which view this relationship as a grave threat to the Western liberal order. The newly formalised military alliance between Russia and North Korea is expected to have direct implications for the Korean Peninsula and could indirectly impact the US homeland, too. While considering Russia-South Korea relations, it has already strained due to Seoul’s participation in sanctions against Russia for its war in Ukraine, may face further deterioration. Thus, the upgrade in Moscow-Pyongyang relations might prompt South Korea to reassess its diplomatic stance towards Russia. The US and South Korea may need to strengthen their bilateral ties and trilateral security cooperation with Japan in response to these developments. Additionally, South Korea should continue to build ties with NATO for better security. Overall, the so-called deepening alignment between these two sovereigns will likely to elevate tensions on the Korean peninsula to unprecedented levels, potentially creating Cold war model groupings in East Asia.
In conclusion, the visit of Vladimir Putin to North Korea and the subsequent agreements reflect a significant shift in the geopolitical scene. As Russia and North Korea actively advance their multifaceted partnership, they aim to challenge the global order dominated by the West. This strategic realignment underscores the complexities of contemporary international relations and the evolving dynamics in East Asian security. The implications of this deepening alliance will undoubtedly shape the geopolitical and security landscape in the region and beyond, necessitating careful navigation by all affected parties.
Rekha J is a Project Fellow at the Korea Center at Mahatma Gandhi University, India.
