Rise of China and its Influence Over the Indo-Pacific

17th June 2024 NIICE Commentary 9248
Harini Gopinath 

In the past century, oil was considered as the determining source of the rise and decline of a state, as one can witness from World War II and many other conflicts, where it was used in submarines, warplanes, tanks, and so on. Remarkably, in the 21st century, water has been a dominant fuel, especially in Asia, and has been an inevitable influencing asset in the international forum. There are about 20 islands in the Indo-Pacific region. Historically, these islands were overshadowed by the major powers. To be fair, islands also share extensive common interests starting from climate change to maintaining the economic output.

Indo-Pacific: A Surging Geopolitical Build-Up

Excluding water from being an economic issue, it has become a source of security issues as well. It is often associated with the concept of “Indo-Pacific” characterizes Asia’s evolving strategic geography – a region that extends from the Pacific coastline of the US to the Indian Ocean and surrounds Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Oceania. Transboundary water resource competition and conflict present a unique challenge, in particular to the Indo-Pacific region. This is where the US has been continuously trying to be a steady and enduring partner as it shares one entire side of the region mainly to counterbalance China’s influence. Apart from China and the U.S., countries like Australia, Japan, India and South Korea rely on the Indo-Pacific region both for commercial purposes and to counter global security challenges.  For instance, the South China Sea facilitates over one-third of global shipping trade making the Indo-Pacific water lanes vital not only for the region’s surrounding countries but for the entire world.

Global Demand for the Indo-Pacific

In the last few years, the Indo-Pacific region has become the heart of global power. Australian Defence White Paper of 2013 officially terms ‘Indo-Pacific’ as a new region: a strategic arc connecting the Indian and the Pacific Oceans through Southeast Asia and water politics in this region has begun to shape contemporary world affairs and possesses multifaceted importance in the global platform. This region is considered as vital for many countries like India, Japan, Australia, the Philippines, the U.S, and South Korea, especially to counterbalance geopolitical competition created by China in this region, through some ironclad treaty alliances like QUAD, AUKUS, SQUAD, and so on.

The United States of America, the superpower, is an influencing power in the Indo-Pacific region. For India, this region is vital for economic growth, and security and also to counterbalance China’s influence. Australia, too, has been seeking to protect its commercial interests in Asia through various treaty alliances in the international system. Japan has initiated a significant military buildup to counter global security challenges. Therefore, it is certain that there is a global demand for the Indo-Pacific region because it is a life-sustaining reservoir of natural resources like fisheries, underwater reserves, and more importantly, the world’s busiest trade lanes.

China’s Geopolitical Competition in the South China Sea

According to George Modelski, a renowned professor of political science at the University of Washington, the strength of the world leader rises and falls, which can be seen in Colin Flint’s writing “Introduction to Geopolitics”. In a series of cycles of global leadership, the mantle of leadership has been passed down over centuries from one nation to another, where each cycle of world leadership lasts approximately 100 years. According to Global Times published on March 2024, a report from a think tank made up of scholars from five countries – the US, Russia, Canada, India, and China – predicts that China will overtake the US in terms of GDP, making it the world’s largest economy around 2035. The report stated that China’s strong growth will drive the global economy forward.

Water politics in the Indo-Pacific region is no exception in gaining attention from China, like other nations, especially its aim to control the South China Sea apart from China’s String of Pearls strategy. The Fiery Cross Island, which is home to a Chinese military base, has an about 10,000-foot airstrip, an advanced radar station, a missile defence system, and about 200 troops. However, it didn’t exist until 2014 and neither did the six other Chinese military bases that have been built on the man-made islands in the South China Sea.

According to the UN Law of the Seas, a country’s territorial waters extend 200 miles off its shore and are referred as an “Exclusive Economic Zone” whereas the remaining are called international waters, meaning that every country shares them. In May 2024, the new commander of the U.S Indo-Pacific Command accused China of intrusive and expansionist claims as illegal, coercive, aggressive, and deceptive and has vowed to preserve the free and open Indo-Pacific region for world peace.  However, China refuses this international claim as the country’s interests in this region deepen and argues that the country has a historical claim to this South China Sea, for instance, the country’s claim on the “Nine-Dash line”.

Recently, Manila has made a claim that China has been building an artificial island at the disputed Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea, for which China has rejected the former’s claim and called it a groundless and pure fabrication. Manila has warned China that it would continue patrolling the disputed area despite China’s fears. China is meant to be the biggest military spender in East Asia, which is about 296 billion dollars in 2023 and has risen continuously for 29 years, say reports. On the other hand, Japan has boosted defenses on two remote islands near Taiwan, despite China’s threat, that is, on Miyako Island in 2019 and on Ishigaki Island in 2023, both of which accommodate missile units.

According to a report published by South China Morning Post in June 2024, officials from the Philippine military have charged Chinese vessels with taking away food and medical supplies dropped from the air to Filipino soldiers on the vessel at Second Thomas Shoal. Beijing asserts ownership of almost the whole South China Sea, which encompasses the Second Thomas Shoal. Another report has stated that the Philippines’ entrance into logistics assistance with New Zealand might trigger a response from Beijing, possibly leading to an increase in military hostility and strain in diplomatic relations in the area, according to some analysts.

Conclusion

The South China Sea is very significant because one-third of the world’s maritime shipping trade takes place in this region, so security here is also essential not just for the region’s surrounding countries, but for the world. China is a country that has taken a stable stand on one particular ideology, that is, communism. At the same time, it has been emerging economically through its strong military might. Though China rejects the international claims on the Indo-Pacific region, the world countries hold more maritime military exercises in order to ensure a “free and open Indo-Pacific”, according to an Australian news report. In truth, China’s attempt to own the whole South China Sea has created a complex situation that will continue to gain international attention for better or worse.

Harini Gopinath is a Research Intern at NIICE and is currently pursuing her Master’s Degree in International Relations from Loyola College, Chennai, India.