04 June 2024, NIICE Commentary 9191
Rekha J
On 27th May 2024, Chinese Premier of the State Council Li Qiang, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol convened in Seoul, South Korea, for the Ninth Trilateral Summit marking the 25th anniversary of the trilateral cooperation. This meeting marked the first such trilateral discussions in nearly five years, a break attributable not only to the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic but also to the Japanese-Korean sour ties.
The primary aim of this summit was to reestablish the dialogues among the participating nations in which China primarily aimed to foster greater engagement with Japan and South Korea on economic and cultural fronts, while South Korea, on the other hand, sought to bolster its standing as a global pivotal state. Nonetheless, some perceived this summit as an attempt by China to encourage Japan and South Korea to distance themselves from the United States.
The trilateral summits were first proposed by South Korea in 2004 but initiated in 2008 during the global financial crisis. At that time, the three nations needed a platform outside the ASEAN Plus Framework to initiate a better understanding of one another. The initiative also led to the establishment of the Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat in Seoul. From the year of its establishment till 2019, eight summits have been held. But, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, historical disputes between South Korea and Japan, disputes over territory and the intensification of US-China rivalry, no Summit took place after the last edition held in December 2019 in Chengdu, China.
Amid the emerging trend of several minilateral groupings in the Indo-Pacific region, such as AUKUS, QUAD, and SQUAD, China has expressed concerns over the formation of NATO-like alliances in Asia. This context stresses the importance for China of maintaining robust relations with its neighbours, encapsulated in the adage, “A close neighbour is more useful than a distant friend.” Consequently, China also recognised the need to realign the trilateral ties, focusing on safe topics such as trade and cultural exchanges rather than contentious issues like dispute settlement mechanisms in the East China Sea.
One of the major outcomes of the 9th summit was the commitment to revive negotiations towards a trilateral free trade agreement between the three nations. Additionally, through a joint statement, the nations also pledged to identify and implement mutually beneficial cooperation projects across six key areas, including people-to-people exchanges; sustainable development, economic cooperation and trade; public health and ageing societies; science and technology cooperation; and disaster relief and safety. To be fair, this meeting of the three leaders can be viewed as a positive development for East Asian international relations amidst global economic uncertainties worsened by ongoing wars and instability worldwide. They also made clear that from now on, the Trilateral Summit will be held on a regular basis as per the declaration.
However, for the United States, the meeting of its two most important allies in East Asia with China could be concerning, given its efforts to expand the influence of the free and open Indo-Pacific framework. Since President Yoon’s ascension to power in South Korea, efforts have been made to restore bilateral relations between South Korea and Japan to a certain level. Currently, these nations are closer to their respective allies than at any other time. Thus, the resumption of the summit highlighting the willingness to engage with China reflects as a reminder to the US that sometimes, its allies also have their own interests to manage.
Concurrently, North Korea attempted to launch a spy satellite to enhance its capability to monitor South Korea and the U.S., although the launch was a failure. During the summit, South Korea and Japan urged China to leverage its influence to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear ambitions. However, China even refrained from directly addressing the satellite launch, instead calling for all parties to exercise restraint and prevent further complications on the Korean Peninsula. While North Korea condemned the trilateral commitment to denuclearisation, describing their joint declaration as a “grave political provocation” that violates its sovereignty.
Despite such frictions, the leaders from all three countries emphasised the importance of continuing the trilateral dialogue, stating it was essential for resolving issues of mutual concern. They also committed to holding the Trilateral Summit regularly, with the next meeting to be convened in Japan. The continuation of these summits holds the potential to foster deeper integration and collaboration, contributing to a more stable and prosperous East Asia. Although the summit did not result in groundbreaking changes, it can be considered a success. It remains to be seen whether the agreements reached will translate into substantive actions and sustainable efforts. Thus, the outcomes of this renewed cooperation will be closely watched by regional and global actors, particularly in the context of the ongoing strategic rivalry between the United States and China.
Rekha J is a Project Fellow at the Korea Center at Mahatma Gandhi University, India.
