02 June 2024, NIICE Commentary 9179
Shradha Arjyal Joshi
India- with mammoth voters of around 1 billion has reached its climax of a colossus election as results is all set for 4 June. This general election which started in April is observed as one of the largest democratic practices in political history.
Before the announcement of the results, the probable outcome has remained a third consecutive term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government-led party the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party). Undoubtedly the prime minister has been of prime concern and is the leading face in the election. He is now running for the third term, which in itself is exceptional in the history of Indian politics. Before this, only Nehru and Indira Gandhi have won the general elections thrice, post-independence. The decade-long tenure has definitely been remarkable for Modi and his government, especially in attaining economic and diplomatic ties. The rise of the Indian economy in a stable government since 2014 is one prime factor for the BJP’s leading edge in the election polls. The geopolitical rivalry or the Sino-U.S. conflict has given India ample space to play a decisive role in global order. Under the Modi government, India has placed itself as a powerhouse in three main areas; economy, military and diplomacy.
Economic Germination in the Decade
From the tenth largest economy to the fifth today, the Modi government has come with flying colors. India is yet to see a significant rise in the economy, with Modi claiming to make India the world’s third-largest economy during his third tenure. India’s real GDP has grown the fastest in the past 7 years and the International Monetary Fund(IMF) has projected India’s economy to grow at the rate of 6.5% in 2024 which exceeds many other large economies. Since 2014, Modi’s much ambitious “Make in India” campaign has missioned to boost the manufacturing sector and end the then-stated fragile economy by Morgan Stanley’s James Lord. Foreign Direct Investment over the last decade has doubled albeit into the service sector than manufacturing. Ten years on the BJP-led government has remoulded infrastructural projects to foster economic growth and uplift the livelihood of its citizens. The construction of highways, railways and airports has increased in an expeditious manner and has promoted inclusive and sustainable growth. The Modi government definitely gets all credit and achieve significant milestone in bringing world-class transportation infrastructure to India during these 10 years. Amongst all these, the digital transformation has been a breakthrough project. The rollout of the “Adhar” card, a digital ID system enabled through fingerprints and iris scans allowed citizens to get access to bank accounts and the government to distribute the benefits to the poor and bring transparency in subsidy packages. With access to the Internet, roughly around 800 million Indians have flourished in the rural-urban entrepreneurship and e-commerce sector of the country which can act as a great initiative to achieve the status developed economy by 2047.
Dynamism of Modi’s Foreign Policy
Jawaharlal Nehru is known as the pioneer of modern India. After the independence of India, Nehru was a key person to make its stand in the international community. To date, Nehru’s foreign policy is a remark of both praise and controversy. Nehru was guiding India against violence and militarism. He was more focused towards the economic progress of the country which was just a recently decolonized nation. One of the biggest successes of his time was the formation of the Non-Alignment Movement (NAM). It was a strategy so as to maintain world order and maintain peace without being involved or associated with any of the powerful nations. Nehru-led foreign policy helped India to maintain its strategic independence and gain mutual respect from other nations.
Narendra Modi was sworn in as the prime minister of India in May 2014 when his party the Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP), got an overwhelming majority in the election. With his persona of strong ideological leadership India started to gain a new direction and approach to foreign policy. Since his initial days, Modi started to have intense engagement and visits with the outside world. These moves highlight the diplomatic manoeuvres under the new government of Modi. His priorities at the beginning were on India’s relation with the South Asian neighbours, then came the north with its shared border of 2500 miles. Modi’s ambition to become the regional power also poses the challenges it has whilst its neighbors struggling to remain prosper and stable. He has well understood that only his country being domestically strong can deal potentially with China. Time and again he has criticized the Congress-led government that was unable to deal with China on behalf of the interest of India. By now India’s defence budget has increased by over 13 per cent and is very determined to form a strong military and civilian infrastructure when it comes to handling the India-China border issue. His government is very well aware that India’s security and growth are highly challenged by China’s growing presence in its neighbouring states.
During his ten years as a prime minister, Modi has established himself as one of the most loved and charismatic leaders in the realm of foreign policy, and his party left no stone unturned in stating him as the “Vishwa guru” or world leader during all their election campaign.
After being sworn in as prime minister, Narendra Modi has led India to become an essential strategic player with his effective and pragmatic foreign policy. He has been able to successfully shift New Delhi away from its old school followed by non-alignment and now is working to maintain stronger ties with super and middle-sized powerful countries. India’s strategic effort in balancing China and gaining leadership in the region was seen with its move to embrace America’s Indo-Pacific strategy.
Today India’s foreign policy not only includes national security but clearly expresses the effort to multiply trade and investment with the West, Japan, Russia and importantly China as well. Narendra Modi has been aggressive on bringing economic growth back to the country with his initial campaign such as “Make in India”, aiming for prosperity in India. He has well realized that the economy cannot be fostered without industrialization and hence the manufacturing sector needs to be strong for mass employment and productivity. The then foreign policy aimed to curb the capital and technology from the developed nation in India. Following the neo-liberal principle, economic growth has remained a key concern followed by welfare. Modi also had some bilateral and multilateral agreements with three important states Japan, the US and China. The closer tie with Japan aims to improve India’s infrastructural projects through FDI. America has always remained a crucial nation to imply India’s foreign policy to the Western world. Modi’s first visit to the US was successful in removing the cleft in diplomacy between the two nations. Modi’s address to the Indian diasporas at Madison Square also marked his rising influence and was even compared to rock stars. President Xi Jinping’s visit to India promised to invest 20 billion dollars in the next five years helping to reduce trade imbalances amongst these two nations.
With his second tenure in 2019, Indian foreign policy does have many challenges domestically and in the global scenario. At the very first he surprised everyone by appointing S. Jaishankar who was the former bureaucrat as the new external affairs minister. The shift from SAARC TO BIMSTEC also showed Modi’s intention to bring forth eastward connectivity and economic integration.
`To this second term, Modi has visibly shown the use of force to tackle the issue of terrorism. After the flooded verdict to his government on re-election, Modi has taken a strong stand in presenting India’s approach to the Kashmir issue. By the end of his decade-long tenure, one has seen that Modi’s policy with Pakistan is more applied by the use of force and diplomatic offensive further isolating Pakistan and not having many talks or agreements as such.
The rise of China as a global power has a direct impact on India’s policy toward South Asia. As China is having greater influence in South Asia, India no longer holds the traditional hegemony of dominating this region solely. Over the years China has been actively involved in various South Asian countries with its ambitious economic projects showcasing its presence and power. Therefore, Modi’s government holds the great challenge to maintain a ‘balance of power’ so as to remain influential in South Asia.
There was a greater shift in foreign policy when India was able to portray an independent stand in the Russian-Ukraine crisis. This also helped India to remain resilient in balancing relations with great powers (the United States and Europe). The economic sanction imposed by the West to isolate Russia politically also put great pressure on India to ban Russian oil imports. To everyone’s surprise, India enjoyed strategic autonomy didn’t restrict Russian imports and still maintained relations with the West. It seemed that they had turned a deaf ear towards international pressure and continued their energy dependence on Russia. The United States later accepted this strategic move of India.
Modi was explicit towards his “neighbourhood first policy” in his first tenure. However, it is still equally challenging for India to take a lead in maintaining peace and security in the region. Political instability and sluggish economic growth in Nepal, the Taliban’s takeover in Afghanistan, Pakistan’s political chaos, the recent conflict with Maldives etc. are a matter of concern to India.
The global issues today – Russia-Ukraine war, the Isreal-Palestine conflict and war in Gaza, the changing political landscape of Iran, Taiwan- India has chosen not to demonstrate its strategy explicitly but rather opt to remain silent and neutral to large and discard preaching from the West. At last, the world is also looking forward to Modi’s way ahead and whether India shuns the China way.
Shradha Arjyal Joshi is an International Relations and Foreign Affairs enthusiast.
