27 December 2023, NIICE Commentary 8881
Dr. Mohammad Tarikul Islam
Climate change, one of the most urgent problems of our day, endangers the lives and way of life of billions of people. Climate change is a pressing issue that only appears to get worse, as seen by an uptick in natural disasters, refugee movements, and wars for resources like food and water. Bangladesh is a disaster-prone nation, and the effects of climate change contribute to more frequent disasters that have an influence on all facets of human existence. According to statistical evidence, Bangladesh, which has a population of 160 million, is extremely vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise. As a result of calamity, people will migrate from one climate zone to another in order to survive and continue to exist. Some migration waves have been linked to cultural collapse because people’s once-familiar homes and means of subsistence were no longer given by those environments.
People have traditionally used migration as a customary response or survival strategy when faced with the possibility, severity, or aftereffects of disasters, whether it be temporary or permanent. Disaster-related migration has the potential to grow to unprecedented proportions and dimensions. On the other hand, frequent disaster events and climate change lead to new forms of vulnerability, such as unsettling movement and immobility, which could endanger human security. Unquestionably, one of the ways that climate change affects people is through comprehensive experiences of insecurity, such as ongoing social marginalisation and precarity. City corporations and municipalities can play a crucial role in assisting the urban poor in recovering from the pandemic and getting ready to manage future shocks because about 36 percent of the population lives in urban areas. The following chart is showing the last 40 years analysis of occurring natural hazard.
Bangladesh is situated inside a seismically active and high-risk zone. The northern and eastern portions of the nation are especially prone to earthquakes. Seasonal droughts in Bangladesh are most prevalent in the northwestern region, which receives less precipitation than the rest of the country. These droughts have a destructive effect on crops, consequently hurting subsistence farmers’ food security. One million people each year in Bangladesh is affected by flooding and riverbank erosions. Approximately every three to five years, up to two-thirds of Bangladesh is flooded. More people are affected by flooding than by any other natural disaster in the country. According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, during the past ten years, natural catastrophes have displaced roughly 700,000 people from Bangladesh annually on average. Internal migration occasionally threatens social harmony and causes conflict in society.
Although Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, is thought of as the region’s centre of economic opportunity, it is also rife with concerns such as extreme poverty, threats to public health, human trafficking, and other dangers like its own susceptibility to flooding. According to statistical evidence, Dhaka receives about 400,000 low-income migrants each year. Livelihood systems are severely impacted by flooding, severe storms, droughts, or more gradual but equally significant changes in area climate. For individuals with the means to leave early and far enough away from danger, migration might be a means of adaptation. Migration, however, may be a sign of a failed adaptation in extreme circumstances and for persons with limited mobility—a desperate attempt to flee pain or even certain death.
The effects of global warming on Bangladesh are costly. In Bangladesh, the average annual cost of tropical cyclones is around $1 billion. One-third of agricultural GDP could be lost by 2050 as a result of climate variability and extreme events, a horrifying statistic given that agriculture accounts for more than half of the nation’s jobs. In the next 30 years, 13.3 million people may become internal migrants due to the consequences of climate change on agriculture, water scarcity, and rising sea levels, with women, disproportionately impacted. In the event of severe flooding, the GDP might fall by as much as 9 per cent.
Although Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, is thought of as the region’s centre of economic opportunity, it is also rife with concerns such as extreme poverty, threats to public health, human trafficking, and other dangers like its own susceptibility to flooding. According to statistical evidence, Dhaka receives about 400,000 low-income migrants each year. Livelihood systems are severely impacted by flooding, severe storms, droughts, or more gradual but equally significant changes in area climate. Migration, however, may be a sign of a failed adaptation in extreme circumstances and for persons with limited mobility—a desperate attempt to flee pain or even certain death.
Planning for development, raising social awareness, taking part in government initiatives, working with NGOs as development partners, disaster preparedness, and judicial and extrajudicial performance all reflect the quality of governance in Bangladesh. As a result, disaster-related migrants, who are a marginalised group in society, are all but denied access to political benefits. The government oversees addressing local issues including natural disasters, poverty, ageing, widowhood, vulnerability, illness, unemployment, workplace injuries, disability, etc. by offering several forms of aid such as social services and social support. However, the government’s social security activities fall short of meeting the current social needs, leaving fewer benefits for catastrophe victims or refugees brought about by disasters.
People, especially migrants and disaster victims, are struggling as a result of unemployment, health risks, population expansion, and exorbitant prices for necessities. One of the deciding elements for potential migrants’ future is their ability to make a living in a particular climate and location. In Dhaka city’s slums and squatter settlements, more than 3 million people reside with scant access to utilities. The low-income segment of people in Dhaka city is housed in slums and squatter settlements. Conflict (quarrel, clash, brawl) among squatters and residents of slums is a common occurrence. Noise and violence are produced as a result, disturbing city inhabitants, especially those who live nearby, as well as office employees and schoolchildren. In addition, a significant portion of slum dwellers engages in prostitution, drug trafficking, hijacking, mugging, etc. The social and cultural environments of the city are at risk from these actions.
It is crucial to investigate how shifting environmental conditions influence people’s decisions to migrate as the need for discovering suitable adaption pathways for climate change grows increasingly pressing. In addition, the government must assume responsibility for providing social security for the migrant population living in slums so that they can coexist peacefully and prevent social upheaval. To be able to support the flux of forced climate migrants at the international and national levels, institutions must be strengthened or created, and the idea of catastrophe and climate-induced migration must be developed. At the national level, this could entail bolstering and encouraging various ministries to collaborate (such as the Ministries of Home Affairs, Environment and Forest, Social Welfare, and Disaster Management, among others) in order to address the problem jointly and incorporate a multidimensional array of competencies and viewpoints.
As a matter of human security, climate change must be prioritised. In order to better understand how migration and urbanisation trends will be impacted by climate and environmental change and to incorporate these considerations in urban planning and important sectoral policies, the UN and the development partners based in Dhaka must support the Dhaka city government. They must help local governments create inclusive urban policies and guide and speed up local, national, regional, and global responses to climate change and urban migration.
Dr. Mohammad Tarikul Islam is a Professor of Government and Politics at Jahangirnagar University, Bangladesh and a Visiting Scholar of Oxford, Cambridge, Harvard and SOAS.
