Souring ties between India and Canada: A Geopolitical Clip Hanger

12 December 2023, NIICE Commentary 8854
Sonu Kumar & Dr. Kaustav Padmapati

18 September 2023 was an unusual day for the India-Canada bilateral relationship, as Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau while addressing the joint session of the Canadian Parliament, accused India of killing a Canadian citizen, Harjeet Singh Nijjar, a Sikh Independence advocate.  Nijjar was a leading member of “Khalistan” movement, which aspires to create a Sikh homeland. The Canadian PM alleged that the country has credible allegations against the Indian agency regarding the killing of a Canadian citizen, and in response to that, the Canadian Government has expelled a senior Indian diplomat, who, according to them, has a potential link to the death of the Canadian citizen. The action of the Canadian Government in expelling a senior Indian diplomat led to the similar reaction from the Indian counterpart, as the Indian government too, while expelling the Canadian diplomat, raised concern about the growing interference of the Canadian diplomat in the country’s internal affairs. The tit-for-tat action and the statements of the Canadian Prime Minister sparked a huge controversy regarding the sovereignty of a nation. Earlier, the Ministry of External Affairs of India rejected the accusation made by the Canadian Prime Minister, calling it “absurd and motivated”.

Why does Canada raise this issue so aggressively? Number of conflicting theories and answers could be predicted. One such theory is that the Canadian Prime Minister wanted to corner India after the successful G20 presidency, where India managed to issue the joint deceleration without criticising Russia over the Ukraine war. The alternative explanation centres on the fact that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed grave worry about rising anti-Indian actions and separatism in Canada when he met with his Canadian counterpart on the sidelines of the recently held G20 Summit in New Delhi. According to some sources, it is not of a sudden that Canada is raising the issue of Nijjar’s death. The Canadian PM discussed this with the Indian Prime Minister during his G20 meeting; however, the Indian government denied all these allegations. Sources also reveal that Prime Minister Trudeau discussed the same issue with “FIVE EYES” countries before giving the public statement in the Canadian Parliament. Reports also suggest that the United States (a part of the Five Eyes countries) has released an intelligence report on the potential link between Indian diplomat involved in the killing of Nijjar. The actions of both countries have jeopardised the economic and people-to-people connection between both countries.

The shared economic and physical borders of countries form the basis of their ties. India and Canada exchange USD 8 billion dollars’ worth of goods and services, with each country importing and exporting USD 4 billion dollars. From lentils to medicine, both countries trade essential life commodities, but the ongoing controversies will surely impact the trade flow. Earlier, the Indian Government suspended the visa facility for Canadian citizens and Indians living in Canada, and if the sources are to be believed, the government is planning to cancel the OCI CARD (Overseas Citizenship of India) of Khalistan terrorists residing in the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada in order to prevent them from coming to India. What Canada has done so far in response to the escalating pro-Khalistan extremism in their own backyard is nothing less than a gimmick to appease both sides.

 In 2018, the Canadian government published a report titled “Public Report on the Terrorism Threat to Canada.” Originally, the report had eight references to Sikh extremism and six references to Khalistan, but due to pressure from the Sikh community and fear of losing the majority of Sikh votes, the liberal party government chose to scrub all these references. The original reports read that Canada continues to face threats from “individuals inspired to commit violence based on other forms of extremism, including from… Sikhs (Khalistan) extremists.” Canada, under the concept of freedom of expression, often tends to ignore the distasteful statements used by the Khalistan extremists against the Indian Government and its officials. Hoardings, billboards asking for the separate state of Khalistan, and issuing death threats to Indian diplomats and the Hindu community can be often sighted in Canada. Political experts around both countries are aware about the political problems of Canada’s liberal party government luring the Sikhs to get their support and votes.

Another theory refers to the China factor. The West intends to reduce China’s footprint in the Indo-Pacific area, harming its Belt and Road Initiative, and for that, the involvement of India is necessary. The West does not want the situation to worsen since it would undermine their efforts to impair China’s continued economic development. Geopolitics heavily relies on the concept of check and balance; one country’s loss is another’s gain, and the West does not want India to become more allied with China since this may severely result in a significant change in the balance of power in Asia. The lukewarm response from Canada”s allies somewhere pushed Justin Trudeau to tone down his attack on India. New Delhi, on the other hand, doesn’t want this to escape. Speaking to the United Nations General Assembly last week, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar pointed out the double standard of the developed countries on matters of terrorism and extremisms. Later in the day, he lashed out at the West by pointing out growing distrust among the global south against the global north. Amid this continuing diplomatic tension over that New Delhi may have been involved in the killing of a Sikh separatist leader, New Delhi has told Canada that it must remove 41 diplomats from its Embassy in Delhi amid this diplomatic spat is over with India.

According to officials who spoke to The Financial Times, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs has given Canada a week to repatriate two-thirds of its diplomats stationed in India, reducing the number to 21. India’s Ministry declined to comment. An official familiar with the matter confirmed the report to the Associated Press. The clip hanger between these two countries has slowed down the dreams of thousands of students who indirectly support the Canadian economy and business. The coming election will serve as a litmus test for Justin Tureadu, as his popularity is cooling as compared to his conservative party and opposition leader Pierre Poilievre. With Canada facing an economic slowdown, blunders from Tureadu will make it tough for his party to win the next election.

Sonu Kumar is a Research Scholar at School of Modern Media, UPES, Dehradun and Dr Kaustav Padmapati is Assistant Professor (Senior Scale) at the same School.