18 June 2023, NIICE Commentary 8656
Soham Das
The year 2023 was supposed to be a landmark year for Indian multilateral diplomacy. India is holding the Presidency of both the G20 and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This ideally meant that two mega Summits would take place in India, with dozens of world leaders in attendance. Although the G20 Summit preparations are on track and in full swing, the SCO Summit, in a rather sudden and bizarre move, been shifted to the virtual mode. It will take place on 4 July, 2023. This is especially unexpected since both the Foreign Ministers’ and Defence Ministers’ meeting of the SCO member-states were hosted in the in- person format by India this year. Some scheduling and logistical reasons have been cited in certain news sources for this shift. However, to shift the much-awaited Summit of the world’s largest regional organization (both by population and area) to virtual mode is not a very smart strategy, particularly by a state with great, global aspirations. It is, particularly, a lost opportunity to engage more closely with the Central Asian states.
Value of Central Asia for India
Central Asia is a crucial region for India both in terms of geopolitics and geo-economics. It forms a vital part of India’s Extended Neighbourhood. Trade, cultural and defence ties with Central Asia have grown significantly. Connectivity and energy are major focus areas of India’s involvement with the region. India’s influence in Central Asia has also improved to a large extent in the recent years. Since assuming office in 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has visited all the five Central Asian states – the first Indian Prime Minister to do so. The good work being done over the last decade in terms of diplomatic engagement and close cooperation with Central Asia across diverse sectors could have reached a new zenith with the SCO Summit hosted in India. The first India-Central Asia Summit had to take place in the virtual mode in January, 2022. The 22nd Summit of the SCO Council of Heads of State, organized in a physical format in New Delhi, could have been a great opportunity to have a face-to-face engagement with the Central Asian states at the highest level. In fact, India mainly joined the SCO to strengthen its relations with the Central Asian states, and take the benefit of this multilateral forum to further engage with them. The SCO Summit of 2023, organized in the physical format, would have been a fitting event to commemorate India’s journey from being an Observer state in 2005, becoming a full member in 2017 and finally chairing the Summit in 2023. It may be noted that, last year, Uzbekistan hosted a fully in- person SCO Summit with pomp and show at Samarkand, which was attended by Prime Minister Modi along with President Putin and President Xi. In May 2023, China hosted the first edition of the China-Central Asia Summit in the physical format at Xi’an in China. By shifting to virtual mode, India has lost the opportunity to put up a similar show of collaborative strength in the side-lines of the SCO Summit.
Equation with the West: An Act in Perception-Building?
This deliberate lack of attention to the SCO may have something to do with the image- building motives of New Delhi, where they are keen to get their Certificate of Liberal Democracy renewed and stamped by the West. For all the talks about the impending collapse of the liberal international order and the rise of multi-polarity, it is the West that still designates nations around the world as democracies or authoritarian states. They do it through a variety of governmental and non-governmental avenues. The state visit of the Prime Minister of India to the United States this week, along with special perks like the state dinner at the White House and the address to the joint session of the US Congress, can be seen as an exercise in such perception-building. The multi-billion dollars defence deal of India buying MQ-9B military drones from the US will also be signed during this visit. In fact, the India-US defence partnership is at an unprecedented level now. Several senior officials of the Biden Administration have heaped the Modi Government in India with lavish praise in months leading up to the visit of the Prime Minister. The Indian Government is keen to portray its image as the ‘Mother of Democracy’ rather than being seen with a bunch of authoritarian leaders. This is especially significant in a year that precedes the upcoming General Elections of 2024. Thus, the prioritization of the G20 over the SCO.
Apprehensions of Sino-Russian Nexus
India is apprehensive of the expanding Sino-Russian nexus, and may be worried about the probable implications of this within the SCO. This includes the possible difficulty to build consensus within the SCO, particularly given the divergences with China and Pakistan. It is well known that China and Russia have a major influence within the SCO. India has been pushing to include English as a third official language of the SCO along with Russian and Mandarin. Amidst the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war and its own growing bonhomie with the United States, the presence of Russia and Belarus for a Summit in India may not be desirable to the Indian Government at the moment. The presence of Pakistan in the SCO may also be another reason for conducting the Summit virtually, with an aim to avoid unnecessary controversy. These geopolitical considerations may have pushed India to hastily shift the SCO Summit to a virtual format. This can be seen as a signal of India’s even greater shift towards the West. But the downside of this decision is considerable and is likely to impact Indian diplomacy in Central Asia and beyond.
Soham Das is the Chairperson of the global think tank Tillotoma Foundation, India.
