26 April 2023, NIICE Commentary 8637
Rajyavishek Pradhan

China has rapidly become a global superpower in the twenty-first century. Many observers are of the opinion that China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) already outpaces that of the United States. Unsurprisingly, India’s rise in the twenty-first century has also drawn the attention of many scholars. There is moreover no shortage of leadership in Asia, as we can all agree. In this regard, the growing power ambitions between China and India require a clear appraisal of the current situation because of the long history of friction and war between the two countries. Within this context, it is crucial to comprehend and evaluate the Comprehensive National Power (CNP) between the two countries.

Comprehensive National Power (CNP)

Comprehensive National Power (CNP) typically refers to the whole of a nation’s economic, military, scientific, technological, educational, resource, and influence prowess. An authority claims that CNP was created at the China Academy of Social Sciences. It contains an average of eight different factors, including natural resources, domestic and international economic potential, scientific and technological potential, social development potential, military potential, government potential, and potential for international relations (Baru, 2020). In simple terms, it considers both military and economic factors (hard power) and cultural, and scientific factors (soft power) as it can be interpreted as a combination of coercion as well as persuasion. Chinese scholars and experts claim that the CNP can be calculated using a variety of indices.

Hard Power Dynamics

A country’s economic might is its lynchpin. Economic strength is crucial to its security and plays a significant role in its maintenance. China’s persistence with and dependence on the geo-economy is what is fueling the country’s rising stature and power. As Asian economies are accelerating the pace of general economic recovery in 2023, it is predicted, China and India would account for half of the global growth this year according to a report based on the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Likewise, a report from Beijing’s well-known official think tank, the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA), reported that the two economies are “standout performers given the global economic recession.” however, for every two-year period since 2008, the increment of growth in China’s GDP has been larger than the entire economy of India (Allison, 2017: 6). India has a GDP that is very nearly USD3.37 trillion and at the same time, China’s GDP is considered to be USD19.973 trillion. India’s expanding economy has been eclipsed and outperformed by China’s rise. Similarly, to this, India’s trade deficit with China surged beyond USD100 billion in 2022. Since China is the world’s largest manufacturer, Robert Winder (2020) claims that the Chinese industry has grown more important to the world economy. China is placed first in the Foreign Reserve Rankings, whereas India is ranked seventh according to The Global Fire Power (2023) rankings. Using the same parameter, the statistics-based website estimated that China spends USD252 billion annually on defence whereas India spends only USD67 billion annually on its armed forces. In comparison to India’s 2,263 aircraft, China has a total of 4,630. The naval power of India stands at 267 to that of China’s 742. Likewise, The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s (SIPRI) Yearbook 2022 estimated that India possessed 160 nuclear warheads as of January 2022, while China had 350.

Soft Power Dynamics

The present conditions of the world order require something that goes beyond a carrot-and-stick strategy.  Therefore, another fundamental approach to strengthening CNP is soft power. Through the development of networks, communication, and cultural majesty, soft power aims to exert influence. According to Brand Finance’s Global Soft Power Index for 2023, China is ranked fifth for familiarity and influence, while India is ranked twenty-eight. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which is a wide initiative by China to invest in infrastructure abroad is the most potent tool Beijing has at its disposal and is valued worth more than USD 14 trillion. Education, healthcare, research, technology, and innovation in China also show significant advancements in the country’s residents’ quality of life. China’s investments in education are already having an impact on all sectors of the Chinese economy. As per the Times Higher Education (THE) Asia Ranking 2022, Tsinghua University and Peking University of China topped the list. Whereas, The Indian Institute of Science (IISc) Bangalore obtained the 42nd rank. In terms of the workforce, India enjoys a strategic advantage in the area of technology and information as The Information Technology (IT) sector has increased its contribution to India’s GDP from 1.2 percent in 1998 to almost 10 percent in 2019. India has nevertheless exploited distinct soft power resources such as diaspora, yoga, and ancient philosophy to advance its national interests and win diplomatic victories which have culminated in India’s stance towards the Sanskrit phrase “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam” which means the whole world is one family.

Implications for the Region

India and China serve as a point of comparison because they have long been seen as rivals. China has an advantage over India in numerous areas, including economy, military might, global influence, and communications, when we compare the CNP between the two nations. In actuality, the CNP is a Chinese creation, and in order to establish its domination, it has manipulated and greatly benefited from the use of both hard force and soft power. India’s growing ambitions have proven to be severely threatened by China’s mammoth economy. Undeniably, India must increase its all-encompassing national might since it has lagged behind China. As an implication, India’s attempt to win a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) appears to be a pipe dream. India is also having trouble asserting its authority in the Global South. Another implication is India’s stance against the BRI, as greater strategic policies are needed to counter China’s growing dominance. In the end, India needs to be more proactive as its foreign policy relations with China and the rest of the globe must experience many implications as it attempts to strengthen connections with several international institutions and platforms through its multilateralism approach. As Reforms are being implemented to offset China’s CNP, adopting planned programmes and determining their essential methods can undoubtedly show India the way forward. The impending decline of American hegemony will have an impact on the future of the international system, and in this context, many experts and analysts, believe that this decline may give rise to a new global order, with China as the next potential hegemon. As a result, the CNP becomes a potent instrument and a technique for analysing a nation’s shifting power dynamics. China’s place in the world has been cemented by its CNP. India must also therefore, without a doubt, navigate its CNP for the obvious reason of its greater strategic influence and ambitions.

Rajyavishek Pradhan is a Post Graduate student of Political Science, India.