11 September 2022, NIICE Commentary 8255
Tanya Anand

South Asia has emerged as the geopolitical centre of the world. Its geography and economic opportunities make it crucial from a strategic standpoint. The region has been a significant arena of escalating power competition between India and China with the recent Galwan clashes revealing China’s aspirations for expansion, intensifying the rivalry and struggle for power. The Sino-Indian rivalry for extending geopolitical and geo-economic influence is in play to determine the balance of power in the region. Today, China’s rise is seen as a major threat, and it has been argued that India can play a significant role in balancing Chinese dominance.

China’s Increased Footprint in South Asia

When he said, “China is a sleeping giant, let her sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world”, Napoleon Bonaparte warned the world about China. The China we see today has come up with a comprehensive plan for global dominance driven by a desire to project power and increase its influence and South Asia provides countless opportunities for China to create a strong global presence. China’s economic footprint in South Asia is increasing, as are its political, security, and interpersonal ties. China has crafted a geostrategic approach to secure its national interests. Despite its assurances that it only has benevolent intentions in South Asia, China’s conduct in the region demonstrates that it is diligently safeguarding its national interests while viewing its neighbours as either enemies or vassal states.

Belt And Road Initiative

China engaged with many South Asian nations through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to establish itself as a prominent regional development and economic partner. BRI is a “transcontinental initiative aimed at infrastructure development and acceleration of economic integration of countries along the Silk Road route.” It is considered a synthesis of China’s geo-economics and geo-strategy, a means to secure China’s trade and supply lines as well as foster wealth through trade with less developed and unstable countries. Some scholars argue that China’s investments are part of the country’s “debt trap” policy, which will disproportionately harm poor countries unable to repay Chinese debts. Through BRI, China wants to strengthen links with South Asia, and the Indian Ocean. India too, expressed concern that China was attempting to dominate key regional choke points by putting its Indian Ocean neighbours under unmanageable financial burdens.

Sea-Based Expansion

The Chinese expansion is not just land-based but also sea-based. China sees itself as a significant continental and maritime force. To enhance its strategic footprint, China has steadily widened its far seas operations toward the Indian Ocean. Its strategy was built on a network of ports in relation to its sea lines of communication (SLOC), often referred as “The String of Pearls.” China is expanding its geopolitical influence on all regions where it has an interest in gaining access to ports and airports, modernising its military, and cultivating diplomatic ties. Its aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea, and Indo-Pacific, is a concerning sign of the threat.

China uses a calculated approach in the political and security spheres to advance its national interests like, through counterterrorism in Pakistan, port access and investments in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, or causing disturbances in India. It also uses its soft power to expand itself. Overall, it appears that China is hardly cooperating with South Asia for the advantage of both regions, but solely for its own. China has played a significant role in the rise of South Asia, however, there have been several strings attached.

Trouble in South Asia

Many South Asian countries are currently facing economic hardship and political instability. In South Asia, five governments have changed in the last few months. Three countries are well on their way to resolve their debt issues with the IMF and the international community, and some may need to do the same, as highlighted by Shivshankar Menon, India’s former National Security Advisor. Inflation and shortages caused by the COVID-19, and Russian-Ukraine war, contributed to South Asia’s political and economic vulnerabilities. However, China’s role has recently been highlighted as an added factor contributing to South Asia’s crisis.

In Sri Lanka, a severe economic crisis was followed by the declaration of a state of emergency. This sparked a significant call for reforms in the Maldives and Bhutan. Bangladesh has approached the IMF to help stabilise its dwindling foreign exchange reserves. Pakistan is also significantly in debt, owing mostly to Chinese loans and investments. Nepal is also economically fragile because of external shocks. Many believe that the problematic Chinese loans are to blame for the region’s economic issues. These nations continued to borrow due to the easily accessible loans from China, increasing their economic and political vulnerability. Consequently, questions regarding Chinese effectiveness as a development partner are being raised. This situation may hamper China’s intention to strengthen its regional strategic influence, and project itself as a responsible power. The Sino-Indian rivalry is also significantly impacted by this. India can seize this opportunity to enhance its leadership position and demonstrate its beneficial contribution to South Asian stability.

Seemingly, China is in part to blame for the chaos that has engulfed South Asia. South Asian countries, therefore, should carefully assess the long-term effects of China’s expanding influence. In contrast, India has taken the lead in aiding its neighbours and is regarded as the more reliable partner, with the potential and interests to provide stability. So, the question is whether India can counter China’s influence in South Asia.

Can India Counter China’s Influence?

India is not economically or militarily superior to China; however, the global environment has allowed India to take the lead in the international realm. Additionally, the increasing worldwide pushback to Chinese investments, and the ongoing doubt regarding China’s economic growth, contribute to these dynamics.

A Leader and a Balancer

India is emerging as a stabilising force in South Asia. India’s proactive efforts to assist its neighbours have enhanced its standing regionally and globally. By outlining the shortcomings in China’s strategy and providing economic assistance, India has the potential to counter China. According to India’s Foreign Minister Jaishankar, India has emphasized its “Neighborhood First Policy,” which involves India’s vision of a ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’ (the world as one family). As part of this, it provided development assistance and extended help through “vaccine diplomacy.” However, there are challenges to neighbourhood policy.

India is a significant player in the international community, and has become a key stakeholder by being an important member of the UN, a founding member of BRICS, Quadrilateral Strategic Initiative (QUAD), and an oft-invitee to the G7. India is currently a ‘balancer and a leader’, benefiting from its proximity to the West while proving its ability to work and communicate with China and Russia.

India’s relations with Bangladesh, Bhutan, and the Maldives are improving. The Indo-Pacific region has become India’s main diplomatic arena. The QUAD, Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, Partners in the Blue Pacific, and India’s continued focus on ASEAN, altogether have the effect of exerting a concerted pushback against China. With the founding of I2U2 (India, Israel, U.S., UAE), prospects on the Western shores have also improved.

China sees India as the only hurdle to its desire of dominating Asia. India’s pushback against China is part of India’s strategic stance. It can become a powerful ally to counter China, and therefore, the global forces are shifting toward India. India is altering the strategic equations at the international level, which will significantly affect the new power dynamics. However, China recognizes India’s edge in terms of its growing economy, military power, and potential to play a pivotal role in the geopolitical environment. Therefore, China seeks normalized trade relations and support for the ‘One-China policy’.

India can counter Chinese influence but only if some structural challenges are resolved. India must maintain pragmatism and consistency in engaging with Southeast Asia. Furthermore, an unstable equilibrium between India and China is another challenge. To address this power imbalance, India has formed alliances on three fronts: despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it deepened ties with Russia; it established a strategic alliance through the QUAD; and it is collaborating with middle powers. The speed at which India can narrow the ‘Comprehensive National Power gap’ matters. Hence, the effectiveness with which these strategic alliances assist India in closing this gap and enhancing its internal capabilities and global competitiveness will determine their usefulness.

To conclude, the future of Sino-Indian ties is critical for Asia and the world. Given the disparities between India and China, it will be intriguing to see when and how India would offset China’s influence in South Asia. India has the potential to shift the geopolitical odds in its favour and become a great power and stabilising force. In South Asia, where India is an unparalleled hegemon, China’s stand in the region, and its domestic security, will be jeopardised. The struggle between Asia’s two giants will undoubtedly continue in a world seeking a new equilibrium in power equations.

Tanya Anand is a Research Intern at NIICE.