24 August 2022, NIICE Commentary 8217
Pratik Mall

Introduction

Sir Halford Mackinder, one of the most renowned English geographers widely acknowledged as the pioneer of geopolitics and geostrategic, enunciated the notion of heartland; the geographical pivot of history, in his seminal paper entitled “The Geographical Pivot of History”, presented to the royal geographical society way back in 1904. His heartland or the pivot comprised the central part of Eurasia, surrounded by the mountainous fortress on three sides and the arctic oceans to the north. Mackinder envisioned this critically strategic landmass as impenetrable and propounded the most celebrated dictum, “Who rules East Europe commands the heartland, who rules the heartland commands the world island, who rules the world island commands the world.” The five Central Asian Republics (CARs) or the STANS (former Soviet republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, the names ending with the Persian suffix “-stan”) comprise an integral part of this heartland or the pivot, as Mackinder eluded in his proposition. Thus to put things in perspective, one must be well justified in arguing that the region carries an unprecedented geostrategic, geopolitical and geo-economics heft in international politics.

India’s Engagement before the Launch of Connect Central Asia Policy in 2012

India’s engagement with the region dates back to antiquities underpinned by robust historical, cultural, and commercial ties. India’s engagement with the dynamic region remained intact throughout the medieval period and well into the contemporary period when these five central Asian republics were integrated into the USSR as five soviet socialist republics. India was fortunate enough to be one of the few countries to maintain diplomatic and consular level relations with CARs even at the height of cold war rivalries. The end of cold war rivalries ended the relationship’s compulsions and opened a new vista for deepening the engagement with the region. While India did establish full-fledged diplomatic relations with each of these five CARs, it seemed to have missed the bus. The need to reform the economy, reorient its relations with the west and the appetite in New Delhi to look east meant neglect of this very pivotal region. It was also when these newly found republics came to terms with reality, and regional players like Russia and China started venturing into the region. China, in particular, started playing a significant role in the economic and security realms, conscious of its problem of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang, which shares a border with Tajikistan. Therefore, it has been argued that this phase was marked by political romanticism bereft of concrete actions to deepen the engagement with the region.

Connect Central Asia policy and the Bottlenecks

The imperative for India’s deeper and renewed engagement with the region was warranted by the tectonic changes in the regional balance of power, straining US hegemony in the region and the realization that other great powers had already made their mark in the region while India was still trailing. In this broader context, the connect central Asia policy was unveiled by the then Minister of State for External Affairs E Ahmadi at the first meeting of the India Central Asia Dialogue in 2012 at Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. The policy is aimed at enhancing India’s strategic space and engagement with the region. The central idea was to reinvent, rejuvenate and reconnect with a region with which our ties date back millennia. The central tenets of the policy envisage proactive political, economic and people-to-people engagement at both individual and collective levels and regular high-level visits and interaction at bilateral and multilateral forums.

Certain formidable and intractable obstacles marred India’s lofty objectives that it had set for itself. The lack of direct physical connectivity that was a direct outcome of the partition of the subcontinent in 1947 has been the foremost challenge for India. India has undertaken several efforts to overcome this complex issue, such as the proposal to build the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan- Pakistan- India (TAPI) Pipeline Project and the Chabhar port to reach Afghanistan and Europe after passing through Central Asia. Regional instability coupled with India’s delivery deficit problem has meant that the TAPI Pipeline Project is still in limbo. The tardy progress on the Chabahar port project has been one of the reasons for waning Iranian interest in India’s commitment and wooing the Chinese instead.

The region, which is home to both immense and unexplored oil and gas reserves as well as critical minerals such as aluminium, uranium, gold, and silver, among others, came to the limelight in 2015 with the visit of Indian prime minister Narendra Modi to all the five CARs in one go. This unprecedented visit signalled India’s high-octane diplomacy and led to further integration of India with the region. Following it, India joined the Ashgabat Agreement in 2017, and then India and Pakistan became full-time members of SCO in 2018.

Since then, there have been regular high-level visits from both sides, indicating that India is now well integrated and poised to cultivate greater and deeper ties with the region. Regarding the regional institutional framework, India’s engagement with the Eurasian economic union and its stakes in the international north-south transport corridor highlights the salience of the region.

Growing Convergences

India and the Central Asian republics are on the same page on several vital issues in their bilateral partnership. Both view radicalism, extremism, separatism, drug trafficking and terrorist threats looming large, compounded by the rogue Taliban capturing power in Afghanistan. Both acknowledge and understand the importance of regional stability and a secure environment for a prosperous and fruitful partnership. There is also a convergence between the two on the issue of terrorism emanating from unholy nexus operating at the Afghanistan- Pakistan border.

Central Asian Republics have been following a multifactor foreign policy to balance and limit the influence of different external players in the region. Chinese growing footprints have led to cases of the debt trap, and the Russian influence has been resisted in this region that Russia views as part of its sphere of influence. India could play a viable role in helping Central Asia Republics diversify their relationship and also increase its profile in this strategically critical region.

In the wake of recent geopolitical upheaval in the region, the region has gained a preeminent position in New Delhi’s strategic calculus. Recently, India has undertaken a whole gamut of tangible efforts. India convened the Delhi Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan, which saw the gathering of the National Security Advisor and their equivalent officials of all the five Central Asian Republics, Russia and Iran, bear testimony to India’s growing urge to recognize itself as a critical player in the region. It also shows a somewhat nuanced understanding among India’s security establishment that Afghanistan and the five Central Asian republics form part of the same geostrategic space as far as regional balance and security are concerned.

Way ahead

India needs to encourage private sector investment in the region and plug its delivery deficit problem that has cost India quite dearly, be it in the case of its South Asian neighbours or now in the case of India’s extended neighbourhood. In a nutshell, India needs a nimble-footed, deft and multifactor diplomacy to navigate the most excruciating and complex central Asian challenge. Overcoming fundamental structural issues, such as traditional reluctance of the past, undertaking big ticket trade and investment reforms and plugging the issues of delivery deficit, are essential to India’s quest to play a more significant role in the region fraught with all its contradictions.

Pratik Mall is a Student of International Relations at School of International Studies, Jawahahrlal Nehru University, India.