15 August 2022, NIICE Commentary 8190
Dr. Md. Shariful Islam
The recent visit of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan has raised geopolitical tensions between China, Taiwan and the US. In response to Pelosi’s visit, ‘China fired missiles into the sea on all sides of Taiwan’s main island while fighter jets repeatedly crossed the unofficial border that runs down the middle of the strait’. In addition, China announced eight countermeasures in response to Pelosi’s visit, including cancelling China-US theater commanders talk, defense policy coordination talks, military maritime consultative agreement meetings, suspending China-US talks on climate change. If these countermeasures are executed, these will have profound negative implications for the world. For instance, US and China are the two largest carbon emitter countries. If these countries stop cooperating with each other on global climate change, then the helpless people from Bangladesh and Myanmar or other climate-vulnerable countries will be the ultimate sufferer. Bangladesh is already in a ‘climate emergency’.
In addition, the unannounced two-day visit by the US lawmakers led by Senator Ed Markey in Taipei will escalate the existing tensions between China and US over the Taiwan issue. It is worrying that China has already announced new military drills in response to US delegation visits.
China Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin criticized the delegation and warned that ‘China will take firm and effective measures to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity’. China’s defense ministry has identified the US as ‘true agitator and breaker of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait’.
If we look at US policy toward China, it maintains unofficial ties with Taiwan while following ‘One China policy’ officially. Thus, one can argue that sending delegations to Taiwan has created recent tensions.
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal on 12 August 2022, Henry Kissinger warned that ‘The policy that was carried out by [US and China] has produced and allowed the progress of Taiwan into an autonomous democratic entity and has preserved peace between China and the US for 50 years’. Thus, Kissinger suggested that ‘One should be very careful, therefore, in measures that seem to change the basic structure’. In the interview, Kissinger also noted that ‘We are at the edge of war with Russia and China on issues which we partly created, without any concept of how this is going to end or what it’s supposed to lead to’. Thus, for the sake of regional peace and stability, Taiwan tensions need to be eased and resolved.
Zhu Feng, Dean of the School of International Studies, Nanjing University, wrote in China Daily that ‘If the US continues to encourage “Taiwan independence” forces to maintain its global hegemony and fulfill its narrow political goals, it will not only worsen Sino-US relations but also pose a major threat to East Asian peace and stability’.
In fact, the world cannot afford another crisis like Ukraine. Consequently, Taiwan tension should be resolved on a priority basis. Instead of provocations, effective solutions can be taken to resolve the Taiwan issue. Chinese military drilling also needs to be stopped so that the people in Taiwan can live peacefully.
If we look at the implications of Taiwan crisis, Taiwan is economically important to the world. The country dominates in computer chips production. If constructive policies are not taken by China, USA and Taiwan, then the world might witness dire consequences. In the past, we have seen that, Sino-American trade war had dire consequences for the world economy and trade.
One can also argue that why the USA sent its delegations to Taiwan while the country maintains ‘One China Policy’. In this context, it is pertinent to note that in a recent Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll, it is found that only 40 percent of Americans are happy with Joe Biden’s job performance, a level of support that is historically low for the US President. In another pool by the New York Times/Siena College poll, it is found that 64 percent Democrats do not want Biden in 2024 elections. One cannot rule out that this high unpopularity at home led to create such tensions with Russia or China. One cannot also rule out that threat perception (Russia/China) works well in American domestic politics/consumption.
It is also worthy to note that the lobby groups, i.e. arms or energy, play crucial role in creating unstable and war-like situations in the world. One can cite that from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis, while the arms-producing and energy companies became the ultimate gainers, the people of the world became losers. For instance, while the poor people in the developing world are having a hard time due to the global energy crisis and inflation because of the Russian-Ukraine crisis, the energy companies made a record profit of USD 100 billion in the first quarter of 2022. Another tension over Taiwan between China and the US will be devastating for the world. It would be increasing geopolitical rivalry and tensions, which will invite an arms race between the countries making the arms-producing countries the ultimate gainers.
Thus, the international community, civil society organizations, epistemic communities, and the global media need to raise voices against tensions between China and USA over the Taiwan issue. In this case, diplomacy and dialogue should be prioritized over conflicts while dealing with the recent Taiwan crisis for the betterment of all.
Dr. Md. Shariful Islam is an Assistant Professor at Department of International Relations, University of Rajshahi and Research Fellow at the KRF Center for Bangladesh and Global Affairs, Bangladesh.
The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author.
