28 July 2022, NIICE Commentary 8158
Om Ranjan
With the pullout of the US troops from Afghanistan and the re-capture of the Afghan government by the Taliban faction, there has been a sudden spark over the region. The question across minds started revolving about the US role, why did the US come across this region of Arabs and gulf?
So, the need is to look at the backdated stories and backstage drama of the US coming and maintaining a presence over the region for a long time, and will this US out from Afghanistan seen as the next gate for the exit of US boots from the other areas too of the middle east (US call) or west Asia (Indian call). The need is to study the whole west Asian and Indian dynamics in the current form of geopolitics and their resemblance in the future.
The US Across West Asia
Oil wells got discovered across the gulf region & this thirst for oil and to secure its energy supply brought the US into the playfield of conflicts inside the gulf. CIA fuelled the whole gamble for war and conflicts inside Shia and Sunni block on one hand side and capitalist approach over communist regime on the other side with an ambition to have one-sided control over oil fields. These started with the policy known as the “Nixon doctrine” under the then US president Richard Nixon. The strategy under this was to prevent boots on the ground and only indulge with the weapons across several political and armed outfits in the region. These approaches were heavily seen across the shah regime in Iran and across Mujahedeen in Afghan fighting with the communist regime. These showed the level of paradoxes in today’s time of the US to whom they supported are against them, Iran and Mujahedeen today being number one enemy is on talks table with the US.
Later, in 2001 this support of the US backfired on the US and crippled them down on their knees. The snake which the US fed for their objective bites them back. Now, the time was for smashing that venom. So, the US started to hunt down these groups whom they supported with a massive crackdown and confronted in the name of fighting with a terrorist. The US stormed Afghanistan to hunt down al Qaeda boss Osama. Having been killed in 2011, the actual plan to take revenge was over. So, the question arises why then also US troops remained on Afghan soil.
On the other side, the US infiltrated Iraq to punish Saddam’s atrocities, the reason for this US being the godfather of the world. Since then, the US has also been fighting with IS (later called ISIS) with the support of several other armed outfits across that region.
Now, 2011-20 was the time frame when US dependence on Arab oil was coming down due to the discovery of “shale oil” across the US. Slowly this enabled US self–reliance in terms of oil security. During this same time, the rise of China and the US “Pivot to Asia” policy was seen as the US shifting policy from west Asia to Chinese specific. These developments made the US re-calibre its position across west Asia and shift its focus to Indo-pacific. So, this paved the way to build the narrative of the US pullout of troops from Afghanistan and other regions of Iraq and Syria and ending never-ending ethnic conflicts across these blocks. But, the other side of the matter was the troops pulling out from Afghanistan had a long-calculated strategy on the US side. The US thought this jihadist and radical movement had only one target and that’s the west. So, the US wants to divert this approach toward other regions and allow it to spread across central Asia, Russia, China, and India. The indication is that these radical and jihadist movements should influence their activity in these areas too.
However, India has been battling the radical insurgency for several decades. Among these, a large portion needs an understanding of US negotiations with the Taliban. The US wants the Taliban to play the role of fighting against the Islamic state spread. But the large part is whether will it happen. IS and the Taliban both are fundamentally associated with the core ideology of radical jihad. Taliban and IS are deeply linked with the same part of jihad and have a deep nexus. The recent attack on the Bagram airbase by IS, despite being guarded by Taliban men shows a deep co-relation between IS and the Taliban. Here, the US is getting double-crossed by the Taliban. So, the entry of the US in the 1970s was not much significant and thus even today is thou so.
Nature of Seriousness for India
India is fighting from three fronts, namely Pakistan and China, and from other one is Naxal Insurgency. Now India has to deal with the fourth front also, and that of radical outfits from external soil. The fundamental and jihadist nature across the Indian region has been a new fact for concern. The Taliban as a radical group will be the next challenge across the Indian region, especially across the Kashmir valley. The close nexus between Taliban and IS fuelled by ISI is not a hidden fact. The rising footprint of IS across Kerala, the U.P, and Bengal has re-affirmed its movement. Whatever relation might India cultivate on a diplomatic front with the Taliban but the question remains whether their ambition and ideology permit to restrain its movement across the region. ISI will be utilizing the Taliban as another one against India to achieve its unfinished goals. Thus, India needs to overhaul the current changing development in its policy too on every front whether it be on security aspects or around a military domain.
India needs to invest more and more in building military capacity. The recent kamikaze style of drone attacks has indicated the future mood of the weapon by these outfits. Rather than cutting down our military force numbers, we need to restrict this process for the time being and strengthen our forces with more equipped men. We need to stop copying the US model of the Troops reduction process, we have porous geographical boundaries thus we need to have more men. Americans have isolated boundaries; they can cope with challenges via missiles and other sophisticated weapons. India needs to prepare for an offensive mode rather than acting defensive and acting as a first mover. We need to act swiftly and hardly as we did in Balakot and Uri strikes, however, those were retaliatory. We need to secure our place of interest via the first move and secure our region of influence. Thus, there is a need for strategic disruption inside our current policy.
Apart from this, we need much more to invest in our assets. The long silent and under-utilized Farkhor base in Tajikistan prepared during 2001-02 needs to be heavily utilized. We also need long strategic bombers and long endurance UAVs to reduce the dependence on ground boots. So, we need to wake up from this massive turbulence across the region and re-focus ourselves on the center of turbulence.
Across our diplomatic front, we need to reboot ourselves to our core philosophy of maintaining peace and security in the region. The under-toned group SAARC needs to be churned. SAARC has been on a low trajectory of its engagement and the future is predicted to be like the next NAM of the time. We need to re-caliber our engagement with neighbors. For India, it would not be an easy one in the time of the Taliban capturing the power form of governance and its support of Pakistan. So, acting as a big brother role for India is the test of time.
Om Ranjan is Research Intern at NIICE.
