23 July 2022, NIICE Commentary 8146
Bishnu Chaudhary
This month earlier saw a high profile political assassination that shook the whole world. Shinzo Abe, the longest serving Prime Minister of Japan was shot twice from behind and shortly declared dead on the evening of 8 July 2022.
The incident immediately sent shock waves across the world and was equally startling in the sense that Japan has one of the lowest crime rates (the Japanese police recorded just 486.6 Penal Code offenses per 100,000 inhabitants, Statista, 2020) and the possession of civilian firearms among Japanese is very low. The gun ownership stands at mere 0.3 per 100 people (US has 120.5 per 100 people, Small Arms Survey, 2018).
The most notable thing regarding Shinzo Abe is a set of brisk economic policies and decisions, popularly referred as Abenomics. These policies came into practice immediately after he was elected for a second term in 2012.
Abenomics is based on three core frameworks, also known as ‘Three Arrows’. They are Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy and Structural Changes. Some specific strategies formulated were targeting inflation at 2 percent, correcting the excessive appreciation of Japanese Yen, relaxing interest rates, quantitative easing, expanding public investment, buying of construction bonds by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), and revising the Bank of Japan Act for the purpose. The fiscal spending was to be increased by 2 percent of GDP, which was likely to increase the fiscal deficit to 11.5 percent for 2013 (Martin Wolf, Financial Times, 2013).
Two of the three arrows were put into action within the first weeks of the formation of Abe’s government. Structural changes took comparatively longer time to execute, although he had made some quick moves in this regard, such as calling for Japanese participation in the Trans-Pacific-Partnership (The Economist, May 2013).
Mixed Response towards Abenomics
Abenomics led to immediate effects on the financial markets of Japan. Rapid weakening of the Yen led to a 22 percent rise in TOPIX stock market index whereas the unemployment rate fell from 4 percent in the last quarter of 2012 to 3.7 percent in the first quarter of 2013 (Financial Times, 2014).
Following the highly lenient monetary policy, the stock market rose by 55 percent, increased consumer-spending led to economic growth of 3.5 percent and pushed Nikkei 225 index to its highest point (20,000 in April 2015) in two decades. All this resulted in Abe’s approval rating to 70 percent and 74 percent respondents of Nihon Keizai Shimbun survey praised the government’s policy.
The structural changes also brought more women into the workforce, increased protections for temporary workers and eased employment rules for the migrant workers (Time, 20 May 2022).
On the other hand, the impact on wages and the consumer sentiment, especially after the hike in consumption tax rate to 10 percent, painted a different picture. According to the Kyodo News Poll (January, 2014), 37 percent Japanese saw no change in their personal lives and only 28 percent expected a raise in their wages. 70 percent of the respondents also considered cutting their spending habit. The self-induced recession and the increased cost of imports (food, oil and raw materials) started damaging the Japanese economy. Japan’s GDP decreased by 0.8 percent in the third quarter of 2015 (BBC news, 16 November 2015). Some scholars have criticized Abenomics for failing to create a sustainable and more inclusive economy. In their view, the structural reform failed in labor market reforms, gender equality and industrial reform.
Historical Revisionism
It is no secret that Shinzo Abe was a staunch nationalist. He was the grandson of Nobusuke Kishi, a conservative by political ideology and suspected class A war criminal in the aftermath of WWII, who would later serve as Japanese Prime Minister from 1957-1960. Abe made his patriotic and nationalistic intentions public within a year of assuming premiership and proposed the move of propelling Japan from ‘passive pacifism’ to ‘active pacifism’. Article 9 of the Japanese constitution states, “……Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes”.
Although Abe failed to change this article, he, nevertheless, established the Japanese National Security Council (NSC) and declared the first National Security Strategy (NSS) and National Defense Programme Guidelines (NDPG) so that Japanese troops could participate in joint military operations in the name of peacekeeping and security.
Additionally, he attempted to downplay the wartime brutality of imperial Japanese troops in WWII by whitewashing the history books. For example, he agreed that Japanese invasion of neighboring China and Korea was wrong but never acknowledged the Japanese wrongdoing in ‘Nanjing Massacre’ and the sexual enslavement of Korean women during the war.
Multifaceted yet Paradoxical Foreign Policy
Abe’s foreign policy was full of multifaceted diplomatic exercises and investment partnerships. He was successful in strengthening the relations with the South East Asian and South Asian nations. The series of state visits to those countries as soon as he was re-elected in 2012 shows how much he valued the roles of those nations along with Australia, European Union, be it for economic or security reasons.
The biggest success of Shinzo Abe was being able to persuade the US in its attempt to make Japan more globally engaged. Abe struck a strong partnership with the US alongside India and Australia in forming QUAD. His foreign policy toward the US was paradoxical in the sense that he advocated for working more closely with the US as discussed earlier; yet, he pushed for removing constraints put by the US on the Japanese constitution.
The second success of Abe’s foreign policy was restoring diplomatic relations with China without provoking the USA. Earlier, Abe’s visit to Yasukuni Shrine in 2013 to pay homage to Japanese warriors alongside war criminals had turned the relationship sour, inviting strong criticism from China. Their relations grew better with Japan’s positive interest in China’s BRI followed by reciprocal state visits by Abe and Xi in 2018 and 2019 respectively.
Japan under Abe also took a center stage in the international organizations and multilateral forums when it came to democracy, transparency and global order.
Regarding Russia, the peace process remained unfinished during his lifetime. The dispute over four Southern Kuril Islands which are still under Russian control persists.
The most striking failure of Abe’s foreign policy was seen in the case of South Korea. Abe’s contradictory remarks regarding Korean ‘comfort women’ and trade feud related to semiconductor industries further estranged the relations between these two neighboring eastern nations.
Mixed Legacy Overall
Shinzo Abe will be mostly remembered for his policy of Abenomics. His efforts of revising the country’s constitution and exonerating Japanese wartime atrocities will always remain as dark spots on his legacy. Despite his ever presence in the global political scene, charismatic personality and leadership, he will also be labeled as nationalist who constantly pushed for strengthening the Japanese military.
Amidst all the upheavals, Shinzo Abe stood as the symbol of international spirit, given his active involvement throughout the international arenas. Hilary Clinton labeled Abe as “the champion of democracy and promoter of Human rights.”
Despite the shortcomings of his policies, Abe nevertheless provided Japan with the political stability it lacked in the past. Earlier 18 different Prime Ministers came and went during the period between 1987-2012. He guided Japan into a new economic direction which suffered a long period of stagnation in the aftermath of the 1990s economic crisis.
Regarding China, South Korea and Russia, he definitely could have achieved more through diplomatic negotiations than focusing much on Japan’s military engagement and security alliances with the US, India and Australia. Underlying all, Shinzo Abe has definitely left a long and rich legacy in Japanese as well as international politics.
Bishnu Chaudhary is a Student of Department of International Relations and Diplomacy, Tribhuvan University and Section Officer at the Federal Parliamentary Committee for Health and Education, Government of Nepal.
