25 February 2022, NIICE Commentary 7655
Prashant Sharma
Carl von Clausewitz said, “The war is continuation of politics by other means”. The war between Russia and Ukraine is a prime example of that, every nation involved in the war have its own self interest to meet, than to prevent war. The former US Secretary of State James Baker promised to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1990 that NATO’s expansion “not one inch eastward”, but today the NATO which comprised 16 nations back then is of 30 members. The US blames Russia for this war, but US now being energy independent nation wants to sell it’s natural gas to Europe and to the rest of the world, but Europe wants cheap Russian gas and as we know that from 1960s the US have created tensions in west Asia to secure it’s energy security. So, can we sideline any US interference in this war, as the US intelligence (which have no clue of Taliban takeover), media and political dispensation, were the first to create the atmosphere of war mongering. Also, the same US, so-called champion of democracy and human rights, is relatively mum over Chinese actions in Tibet, Ladakh and in south China sea. However, the US want Indian government to condemn Russia but the US ever since the formation of Pakistan, have supported it and other anti-India forces in it’s soil, they even refused to lift the embargo over the critical raw material required for manufacturing of COVID-19, during the deadly second wave in India, all within the positive outlook provided by quad. Not just that, even diplomatically it would be preposterous for India to take side in this war, the best way for India is being neutral and calling for diplomatic solution to this situation.
Russian Quest
Vice Admiral Kay-Achim Schönbach, former Chief of German navy, who was sacked for allegedly making defamatory statements against Ukrainian sovereignty in New Delhi in January 2022 said, “Is Russia really interested in having a small tiny strip of Ukrainian soil, to integrate into their country?……. What he really wants is respect….and my god, giving someone respect is low cost, even no cost.”. Absolutely correct, but this is one part of reality of Russian push over of Ukraine. The other being the Russian quest to become European power. It is often argued that Russia can be a great power without Ukraine but can’t be a European power without it. Russians need Ukraine to get directly into the geopolitics to central Europe, and mold the security establishment of western European countries into accepting the Russian security apprehensions and also, allowing Russia to have a much larger control over security issues of Europe.
Russian President Vladimir Putin in a fiery speech claimed that Russian rights over Ukrainian territory emanates due to “history, culture and spiritual sense”. How much of this is true? Well, the first great Russian Empire “Kievan Rus” emerged in ninth century in Kiev, which constituted in demographic joining of Scandinavian Vikings and Eastern Slavs, propelling Russian conversions into orthodox Christianity, and which were later decimated by Batu Khan, the great Mongol ruler. So historically, Kiev have always been an important center of Russian history and culture and Ukraine in modern form was created by Romanovs and USSR. Hence, it is correct that Russian do have historical claim over Ukraine. But, can this argument be used to illegally occupy any other sovereign nation and that too against the wishes of its citizens? In an ideal world absolutely not, but our world is of realism, where your power to influence world order decides your stature among great power, where international rules are shaped and implemented to suit western designs and this war is latest entry into the world of realism.
Some Historical Context
No two conflicts are similar but may we dare to take the balkanization of Yugoslavia as a case in point today. Germany back then was the first nation to recognize Slovenia and Croatia as independent nations, even when Yugoslavia was constitutionally a sovereign and then Germany forced others to follow the suit. Soon, no fly zone was declared over Yugoslavia as US led NATO bombed Serbians and all very little international outrage. The west was happy and soon Yugoslavia ceased to exist. It’s quite clear from balkanization of Yugoslavia, invasion of Iraq and Syrian civil war that what truly matters to a global power is not peace, rather an international order to suit it’s designs and objectives. But, this game is changing with the entry of China and rise of multipolarity.
Red carpet to China
China is only country which is happy with this war for multiple reasons. First, the war will make Russian more inclined towards China to sustain itself economically. Secondly, China may even use this opportunity offered by Russia to launch a blitzkrieg operation against Taiwan or Japan or even India as they have done in 1962, by launching a war during the height of Cuban missile crises. Third, the cost of this war over Russia and West will allow China to unleash itself more aggressively in Central Asia and East Asia. Fourth, the myth of the US security guarantee is also busted first in Afghanistan and now in Ukraine. So, it will make nations like Taiwan to look for other options to secure its territory. Fifth, European Union lead by France will look to push towards “strategic autonomy” more rigorously. All these means a decline of the US global stature as the sole superpower, which will embolden China to pursue the dream of Chinese century.
Lessons to India
India as a rising power, economically, politically and militarily, needs to take a very close look at this war, including Putin’s invocation of history, culture and spiritual space to invade Ukraine. Indians needs to understand unambiguously that we need to develop our capability on our own and also create a plethora of Indian narrative over our security issues in global media. We cannot let West or any other nation to decide, what’s good for India and what’s not. It can’t be the case that Indian democratic standards and human rights record will be decided by self appointed custodians, who are deeply biased. The Indian place in this evolving world order will be decide by Indian only.
Prashant Sharma was previously associated with National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi and is currently pursuing M.A. in Defence Studies at Meerut College, India.
