7 December 2021, NIICE Commentary 7529
Tridivesh Singh Maini

After the recent breakdown of Vienna talks on 3 December  2021, regarding the revival of JCPOA/Iran nuclear deal 2015, between Iran and P5+1 countries (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia and China), the US repeated its earlier accusation that Iran was not serious with regard to the negotiations and compliance with the 2015 deal. Senior US officials also reiterated the point, that if diplomacy did not work, then all options were on the table, and that Iran by moving away from commitments made during the 2015 Nuclear agreement is losing global sympathy. The US  also confirmed they will push for an emergency board meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), before the end of the year ‘.. if Iran does not restore a level of access to its nuclear sites which satisfies the nuclear watchdog’

The long hiatus in talks (the talks which began in April were stalled in June 2021) was meant to give the new dispensation of hardliner Ebrahim Raisi time to rethink its approach towards the JCPOA. While Raisi had clearly signaled, that he was open to engagement he had also made it clear that he will not compromise on Iran’s national interest. Iran had made it clear that until all sanctions are lifted, its nuclear activities would persist – in recent months it has amassed enriched uranium well above the levels agreed to in the 2015 deal and it has also restricted access of IAEA inspectors.

Many analysts had argued, that given the state of the Iranian economy, Raisi may adopt a flexible approach. Surprisingly Iran drew criticism not just from the US, but even E3 countries (UK, France and Germany) who have been pushing for a revival of the JCPOA and negotiations with Iran. Iran on its part said that there was absolutely nothing wrong with their demands, and the main bone of contention point was the US intransigence towards removing sanctions imposed after the US withdrawal from the Iran deal in 2018.

Russia and China

US has also been working with Russia and China in recent months. After the breakdown of talks on 3 December 3021, US said that even China and Russia were surprised by Iran’s maximalist position, Beijing and Moscow have been backing the Iranian demand for removal of sanctions. Moscow has even backed the demand of Iran seeking an assurance that in future the US would not withdraw from any agreement. Before the beginning of talks, a spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry said: ‘The US, as the culprit of the Iranian nuclear crisis, should naturally remove all illegal unilateral sanctions on Iran and third parties including China’.

Iran has already hinted, that if these talks fail it would trade with China, and other countries willing to disobey US sanctions. A breakdown of talks and further deterioration of ties will result in Iran moving closer to China and Russia. While Tehran had signed a 25 year strategic and economic agreement, titled “strategic cooperation pact with China, in March 2021, Iran and Russia are also working towards an agreement of a similar nature.

Analysts argue that while strains between US and Iran may suit China, it can not back Iran’s maximalist position. In 2006, Russia and China along with other members of UNSC voted in support of imposing sanctions on Iran. US is also likely to seek assistance of both Moscow and Beijing to get back to the negotiating table.

Role of GCC Countries

Apart from Russia and China it is GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) Countries – especially UAE and Saudi Arabia – which could play an important role in getting Iran back to the table. While publicly both have been expressing skepticism with regard to Iran’s nuclear program, both have also been speaking about the revival of the JCPOA.  The Biden Administration has been engaging with senior officials of the UAE, while during his Middle Eastern trip French President Immanuel Macron also pointed out to roping not just Israel, but Gulf states in any potential agreement. Said the French President: “It is difficult to reach an agreement if the Gulf states, Israel and all those whose security is directly affected are not involved.”

UAE national security advisor, Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed al-Nahyan visited Iran days after the breakdown of talks and apart from meeting with his Iranian counterpart, Ali Shamkhani he also met with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. During his meetings the UAE National Security Advisor is supposed to have discussed bilateral ties as well as ‘array of issues of common interest’

While all eyes are on the role of Russia and China, in getting back Iran to the negotiating table it is countries like UAE which could have a decisive role to play in the revival of the JCPOA. While the US should refrain from adopting an aggressive stance vis-à-vis Iran, Tehran also needs to be less maximalist in its approach.

Tridivesh Singh Maini is a New Delhi based Policy Analyst associated with The Jindal School of International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University, India.