10 October 2021, NIICE Commentary 7451
Dr. Devika Sharma
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) since its very inception in 1949 has nurtured a goal of reunifying Taiwan with China, while Taiwan has always struggled to maintain its position as an independent country. The two have had a shared history of turbulent ties for long. Taiwan, is a little island off the East coast of China. It is here that the Chinese Republicans took refuge in the wake of the Communist victory and henceforth, Taiwan has been claiming itself to be the Republic of China (RoC). During the Cold war, Taiwan remained the non-communist force challenging China. However, Taiwan was recognized only by China as late as 1971 at the United Nations. Even now, only fifteen small countries recognize Taiwan. By virtue of its geographical location, whatever unfolds in Taiwan and its vicinity, is going to affect East Asia profoundly.
In the current context, tensions have been simmering between the long-standing foes due to a series of provocations by China since October 1, 2021. The Asian giant flew more than 100 fighter jets into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone, as a show of its armed strength. This was construed by Taiwan and the international community as a signal of movement towards the hostile takeover of the island. The Dragon’s action has symbolic significance since it was undertaken on its national day, marking the birth of the PRC and thereby, inching towards achievement of one of its national goals.
The present friction sparked off from last year, in the backdrop of deteriorating US-China relations due to trade and COVID-19 origin, the US sent a high-powered delegation to Taiwan, whose independence it supports. This triggered a military exercise by China in the Taiwan Strait, which separates Taiwan from China. The USA, on its part, as an instance of its crafty diplomatic policy, maintains relations with Taiwan and supplies weapons to it, but formally, espouses PRC’s “One China Policy,” which implies that there is only one lawful Chinese government, namely, the one in PRC and not the one in RoC (Taiwan). The USA and China have contradictory aims, while the USA sees the Taiwan crisis as an extension of its great power game with China, the dragon wants to bring the strategically important tiny island under its control.
In October last year, President Xi Jinping asked the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to brace for war, which set alarm bells ringing in Taiwan. During the initial phase of the Biden Presidency, the USA reiterated its “rock solid” commitment to Taiwan. Interestingly, Taiwan is totally dependent on the USA for its defence equipment against any probable Chinese invasion. In fact, the USA has admitted to the presence of US special forces on the island. Taiwan has been raising red flags over Chinese incursions into its air defence zone. This is the reason why any increase in friction between China and Taiwan results in a chain reaction, whereby the already uneasy relations between China and USA become even more sour. In July this year, President Jinping declared without mincing any words that China would ‘smash’ any Taiwanese attempt towards gaining independence.
The Chinese President by the onset of October had mellowed down his tone after a series of aerial incursions into Taiwanese air defence identification zone and highlighted that the process of ‘reunification’ of Taiwan with China would be ‘peaceful’. At the same time, China reaffirmed its historical pledge to achieve “complete reunification of the motherland”. Taiwan also reiterated its firm resolve to not ‘bow to pressure’. However, the Taiwanese defence minister declared in the country’s parliament about China’s evil designs of launching an all-out invasion of their country by 2025. China’s constant attempts to violate Taiwan’s air defence zone is aimed at checking the preparedness of the Taiwanese defence forces.
Hostilities aside, Taiwan has substantial economic interests in China, including investments. The pro-independence Taiwanese believe that these could act as a roadblock in realizing their cherished ideal of freedom. On the other hand, the pro-reunification group in China believes that the Taiwanese economic dependence on China and the rise of cultural and people to people exchanges will counteract the pro-independence groups in Taiwan.
The USA is walking a tightrope in promising support to Taiwan and in keeping tensions with China under control. It has devised a carefully calibrated policy in this regard, mindful of its global reputation being severely tarnished after its haphazard and sudden retreat from Afghanistan. President Biden after his conversation with President Jinping assured that China had consented to observe the “Taiwan Agreement”, under whose framework the US support for the “One China Policy” is based on China not carrying out military aggression over Taiwan. The US views the Taiwan issue in the backdrop of challenges for supremacy being posed by China.
In this scenario, countries of East and Southeast Asia, like, Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, which have been sheltered by the USA are predicting warning signs for the security dynamics of the region as a whole, as a consequence of the strained relations between China and Taiwan.
In a broader context, the AUKUS, the agreement between Australia, US and UK, according to which Australia will be supplied with nuclear submarines has added a fresh angle to the security dynamics of the Indo-Pacific. Taiwan is in favour of the agreement whereas China is against it and sees it as a threat to regional peace and security.
Meanwhile the second Asian giant, India, too, is also treading cautiously in the background of renewed tensions with China at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and might review its support for the “One China Policy”, although it has not toed that line officially for long.
The invasion of Taiwan could have disastrous consequences for regional peace and democratic alliances, as well as economic development in the region as experts opine. Political Pundits believe that a direct confrontation between China and Taiwan may not be on the cards, but the future of Taiwan remains uncertain.
Dr. Devika Sharma is an Assistant Professor at University of Delhi, India.
