24 September 2021, NIICE Commentary 7383
Dr. Priya Suresh

The new military alliance between Australia, United Kingdom & United States called the ‘AUKUS Pact’, is vague but will have a greater ramification for the future strategic balance in the Asia Pacific.  Several scholars warn that Asia might slide into fast-tracking arms race as county’s react to China’s military growth. The most momentous of the trilateral partnership is that it will witness Australia equipped with a new fleet of nuclear-powered submarines that has high-class competence and endurance than the exclusive French assembled diesel sub-fleet that it had replenished.

There is no explicit mention of China in the AUKUS statement, yet it signals a toughening of US position towards China. As US welcomes the new security ties the question that emerges is whether this announcement is an evidence or a move towards ‘new cold war’ with China? This is a super enabler for Australian Defense Force creating a capable edge in the region when its position was weakening in comparison to China. Since there has been a considerable decline of UKs position in the Indo-Pacific, the trilateral partnership prompts greater opportunity to counter China.

What does the AUKUS alliance mean to Southeast Asia?

The new alliance is likely to have greater implications in Southeast Asia as the region is premised at the core of the Indo-Pacific. The ASEAN nations have stood for the maintenance of peace and tranquility and have committed for a region free from nuclear weapons.  Neither China nor the major powers US, Britain and France have adhered to the protocol of anti-militarization of the region. The Australian nuclear-powered submarine further can change the dynamics of the South China Sea. Plenty of close encounter incidents have been noticed between the Chinese and the US navy and Chinese navy ships and those belonging to the ASEAN members. ASEAN countries remain deeply concerned about the brewing competition in its backyard. The new AUKUS and its mandate of a do not care attitude towards the interest of ASEAN countries has further stepped-up their concern. Repeated emphasis of ASEAN identity remains the core of their relationship with the rest of the world, the new AUKUS brings a shift to the ASEAN agenda. While some countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia have expressed strong concerns over the escalation of arms race in the region.

AUKUS shows a semblance of Cold-war attitude and likely to surge regional and nuclear arms race. In the eventuality of an arms race, the ASEAN countries are confronted with the question of their support. Washington has been pursuing the ASEAN members such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Singapore. High-level visits by US officials to several Southeast Asian countries. At the same time the US-Southeast Asia policy looks inadequate.

The historic visit to Vietnam and Singapore, US Vice President Kamala Harris not only emphasized in strengthening defense and security but also other issues such as climate, cyber security, and health security. She underlined the importance of the freedom of navigation in Southeast Asia and condemned China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea. Speaking in Vietnam, Vice President Harris referred to China’s maritime claim as bullying and solicited Vietnam to put pressure on China. In Singapore she backed for a free and open Indo-Pacific and proposed new areas of cooperation. Geo-strategically Singapore plays a pivotal role in the US-Southeast relations. Given the strategic location of Singapore, big powers engage with the country and US is no exception to this rule. During the recent visit to Singapore Vice President Harris proposed partnership in both the tradition maritime security and in new areas reassuring US partnership with Southeast Asia. Will US be able to crystallize a clear agenda for the region?

The trilateral security alliance has come at a time when the US-China relation has deteriorated. The Biden administration has repeatedly pointed at China for handling human rights issues in Xinjiang, crack down of pro-democratic movement in Hong Kong and coercive way of handling the Covid-19 pandemic. Biden administration has sent messages that it would approach US-China relations different from that of the earlier Trump administration. The historic trilateral dialogue could be seen in the light of US exit from Afghanistan raised several questions on US alliance commitment. The initiative could be a step forward to reaffirm US commitment and to reshape relations beyond Indo-Pacific.

For Chinese leaders the new security pact AUKUS between America, Britain and Australia endorse further intolerance against the Western world. China blames America’s network of ‘global alliance is a cover for hegemony’ and criticized the pact as imprudent. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian denounced US, UK, and Australia as irresponsible and having a cold war ‘zero sum game mentality’. China has condemned the formation of exclusive small groups that harm the interest of the third party and accused the alliance of increasing arms race. In the Chinese view the AUKUS members are trying to contain China’s rise and undermine its economic development. Countries like India and Japan have welcomed this new pact and welcome US move as a strong signal to contain China. Currently the China-Australia relation has been an all-time low. Australia lashed at China for snooping into its domestic politics, and blocked Chinese investments and China’s number one telecom giant Huawei. China for its turn imposed severe trade punishments. Australia hopes the new strategic alliance will help to pushback China.  The growing network AUKUS, Quad among democratic countries is seen as an attempt to counter China’s power.

Dr. Priya Suresh is an Assistant Professor at Stella Maris College (Autonomous), India.