26 July 2021, NIICE Commentary 7199
Dr. Sania Makna
The ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ of China is a huge connectivity project that includes both Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) and Maritime Silk Road (MSR) and was first initiated by Chinese President, Xi Jinping in Kazakhstan. During the delivery of his speech in Nazarbayev University in Kazakhstan, Xi announced his aspirations about the project. The project connects Continent of Asia, Europe and Africa that connects East Asian countries and European countries for economic prospects. The historical silk Route is not a new concept in today’s International economic and trade relations, rather remained significant in ancient times that knitted the ties between Asian and European countries. China’s Belt and Road initiative is an effort to revive the historical Silk route that could bring numerous economic opportunities for China and Central Asia. BRI is the main project of China to create its influence in the Central Asian countries as it has various interests in these states. With the introduction of this projects lots of presumptions can be made on the opportunities and challenges that Central Asian states can face.
China’s Interests in Central Asia
The geostrategic location of Central Asia makes it geopolitically attractive for most of the major powers in the world. Central Asia is also the heart of Europe and Asia. China used to have trade links in the history through Silk Road from its Xian province to Samarkand and Bukhara and other parts of Central Asia that further connects to other trading zones like Iran, Middle East, India and through them to Europe. Central Asia is a place that has gone through numerous migrations and civilizations such as Mongols, Turks, Persians, Russians, etc. The land of Central Asia is rich in a natural resource that makes it valuable for developed countries to have relations with Central Asia. Thus, their strategic location and border connection with China from its western part makes China to develop its foreign policy towards Central Asia in priority. Moreover, the Xinxiang province of China is populated with Central Asian community – Uygur that makes China insecure towards its regional stability as this Uygur Autonomous region is embraced with the threats of terrorism. China’s main interests in Central Asia are – its regional stability, fighting terrorism and regional development. It is always healthy to seek benefits from the nearest neighbor- rich in resources, thus, China is looking forward to Central Asia for building friendly, neighborly relations for boosting greater economic development and also to fight threats of terrorism. China’s aspirations are not limited to enhance benefits from Central Asia rather to locate its influence in the region to counter other major powers such as Russia and the US. The Central Asian region also becomes a base for China to develop its trade with other parts of the world through Central Asia, especially Europe.
Economic and other Opportunities for Central Asia
The President Xi Jinping during his 2013 speech in Kazakhstan underscored the economic benefits and ambitions that partner countries can attain through the One Belt Road Initiative. The aim of the project is to achieve maximum economic benefits, policy, infrastructure, trade, financial and people-to-people connectivity that would help to build an opportunistic platform for international co-operation to develop as economically advanced countries. The nations of Central Asia- Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, were forced to gain independence and left with many new political, economic, social challenges. They were completely dependent on the Soviet Union for their economy but after the collapse of the USSR, these were shattered with huge economic losses. Thus, the One Belt Road initiative is a blessing for central Asian countries to revive their economy and enhance economic benefits from rising economic power China. The Central Asian nations find China as an opportunistic ground that can lend huge economic support for these nations to develop their transport and infrastructure for international and regional economic integration. Since most of the countries in the region are landlocked and lacks maritime access for trade, China can lend economic support to build infrastructure in Central Asian countries. Thus, providing China’s support to develop roads and railways for connectivity will reduce the expense of flow of goods and services.
The economic benefits that central Asian countries can acquire from this project include; quality education, cultural and scientific exchanges, exchange of goods, services, and ideas on equal terms, creating new markets and routes for Chinese goods in Asia. In attaining these purpose, China has launched the ‘Centre for International Knowledge on Development and China’s National Plan on Implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development along with other related initiatives.’ The Central Asian nations can take monetary support from China for building their economic infrastructure and can develop more economic and trade cooperation. China seeks to develop active economic engagement with Central Asia and its desire to invest economic projects that could lead to necessary development for Central Asian countries. It is important to note that ‘BRI includes new economy, developing and developed countries, covers 30 percent of global economic capacity, 55 percent of the world GDP, about 70 percent of the world population and about 75 percent of the world global energy resources.’
Challenges for Central Asia
Despite numerous benefits that Central Asia can acquire from One belt Road initiative, there are many challenges Central Asian countries can face. The first and foremost challenge is a threat to the sovereignty of Central Asian countries as China’s influence in the region has increased a nd while lending it ensures monetary support on cheaper interest rates, investments in large projects, China has leverage to apply its conditions on Central Asian countries, for instance, using their land on its own terms, sending Chinese labor, generating employment benefits for migrating Chinese people, and environment pollution.. Thus, Central Asian countries are under the burden of huge monetary assistance and has to remain silent and unable to take decisions independently. The second challenge is the threat of ‘Debt Trap’ that will make these countries more vulnerable, if they were not able to fulfill the projects; it will become difficult for them to return money to China and will lead to serious economic crisis.
China as a Counterbalance to other Powers- Russia and US
The presence of Chinese influence has been increasing in Central Asia through organizations like Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) but BRI became major driving factor to increase the Chinese presence in the region. The presence of China through this project has challenged Russia’s legacy in Central Asia as Putin’s motive to revive its Eurasian policy through Eurasian Economic Union founded in 2015 can divert Central Asian countries interests towards China. Russia would never want to withdraw its legacy that it had during Soviet Union from Central Asia, it also helps Russia to counter China and US in the region. Moreover, security is another concern for Russia as Afghanistan is a bordering state to Uzbekistan; can pose threat of Terrorism, Drug trafficking, arms trafficking to Russia. The emergence of Taliban is a security threat to many countries like Russia, Central Asia, and India. China on the other hand is becoming a game changer and counterbalance to Russia’s influence in Central Asia through One Belt Road initiative. Similarly, US after September 9/11 had shifted its geostrategic interests in Central Asia to counter Terrorism in Afghanistan and to counter Russia and China influence in the region and also to grab benefits of natural resources of the region. Thus, question of power balance among major powers in the region has risen after the One Belt Road initiative as most of the Central Asian countries are seeking prospects with China’s project and shift their geopolitical interests from Russia and US.
Conclusion
The Belt and road initiative is a landmark for global economic integration but it should develop balanced multilateral and bilateral cooperation among partners. China should build mutual trust, confidence and balance among central Asian countries through this project. The project must focus on fulfillment of interests of all the Central Asian countries and China and not solely fulfilling the China’s interests. The project can be beneficial for both Central Asian countries and China to develop trade and revive economy but on equal terms. Central Asian countries must realize the consequences of the project both in positive and negative terms and therefore should not lose their sovereignty and independence of decision-making. The Central Asian region for its economic and social development need support of major powers like China but at the same time should not forget the importance of Russia and other developed countries that could lend economic support to them and make them attractive for their natural resources trade with them. Central Asian countries should balance the relations with each and every super-power to gain more benefits and to sustain their sovereignty.
