28 December 2020, NIICE Commentary 6639
Prerna Chahar
The catastrophic reality of the novel COVID-19, coupled with Beijing aggressive posturing, spells out the current international order frantic realities. In particular, in the Indo-Pacific region, China using pandemic as an opportunity to accelerate its defiance deepened the already existing geo-political and geo-economic faultlines. Within a few weeks of the COVID-19 outbreak, the People’s Liberation Army-Navy undertook tactical coercive actions against several nations in the Indian Ocean region. Under the garb of unsuccessful “mask diplomacy” and portraying itself as the ‘world’s saviour’, it outlined its medieval identity and medieval mindset once again.
This paper aims to understand China’s aggressive posturing in the Indo-Pacific during the COVID-19 pandemic and plausible actions that can be necessitated by US allies and partners in the post-pandemic world order.
“Indo-Pacific” Strategies: Mapping Convergence
The Indo-Pacific region, with the number of traditional and non-traditional security threats and sustainability issues is also the region of strategic significance. As the hub of mineral and marine resources, global trade, investment flow, maritime routes, sea lanes, and energy supply, it is home to more than half of the world’s population. American allies and partners, considered as valued partners, have provided for America’s asymmetric advantages, addressed economic and security interests, and sustained its power, interest, influence, peace, and stability in the Indo-Pacific region.
The US, in its National Security Strategy of 2017 report, championed the concept of Indo-Pacific. In 2019, the US State Department advanced the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) strategic vision in the report titled “A Free and Open Indo-Pacific: Advancing a shared Vision” for the region. The FIOP strategy is based on the common principles of “free, fair, and reciprocal trade, open investment environments, good governance, and freedom of the seas” which seek to benefit all the countries in the region alike. As anchors of the US Indo-Pacific strategy, the report explicitly outlines the importance of Indo-pacific nations that share similar values.
Along with the US, Japan calls for the “Free & Open Indo-Pacific” strategy and promotes regional openness and transparency. Likewise, India, under its “Act East” policy, has embraced the same concept. Australia outlined the similar Indo-Pacific vision in its Defence White Paper, 2016. In September 2016, Taiwan officially introduced the “New Southbound Policy” (NSP), to strengthen its economic relations with 18 countries and expand its regional links across Indo-Pacific. The NSP is based on four pillars: economic cooperation, people to people exchanges, resource sharing, and advancing regional integration. Therefore, several countries that have formulated their “Indo-Pacific” strategies share three areas of convergence-economics, security, and governance.
COVID-19 and Indo-Pacific: China in Action
The geopolitical shifts and China as a common security challenge continue to be a persistent threat to Indo-Pacific nations. In its quest to become a global hegemon and President Xi as a formidable world leader, China has openly defied the rule-based international order, which for many decades facilitated development in Indo-Pacific. Within a short period, under the guise of its penchant of “peaceful rise”, it has unilaterally attempted to change the status quo and shifted the region strategic equilibrium.
China used the current disruption caused by the pandemic as an opportunity to advance its opportunistic agenda and subvert the sovereignty of nations. Since the deadly virus unfolded in Wuhan, Beijing’s irresponsible and lackadaisical actions in containing the virus raised concerns. In strings of misinformation, deception, and fake cover-ups, it kept the world blindfolded for its big strategic gains.
Some conspiracy theories also point out that China created a mirage of the pandemic to create an opportunity to make its rise explicit. It tried to play the victim card only to take an aggressive posture later against its rival nations in the region. Despite the countries facing the pandemic’s cold blast, Beijing, as an imperious power, showcased its belligerence over border brawl in the Galwan Valley, killing twenty Indian soldiers. It attacked Vietnamese fishing vessels and detained the crew (East China Sea), sent ships and aircraft carriers in Taiwan Strait and near the Japanese coast, introduced new security law in Hong Kong (South China Sea), and launched massive cyberattacks in Australia. It left no stone unturned to further its claim of becoming a world leader and emerge as the ultimate winner.
Getting the Jigsaw Puzzle Right
Several Indo-Pacific nations have sought to play a much active role in countering China’s erroneous claims by either increasing their defense spending or setting up unique regional security architectures. However, they are cautious in standing against China as it involves huge economic and security costs for the nations. Moreover, Beijing contends that it is US allies and partners “Indo-Pacific” strategies and regional security frameworks that attempt to hedge against Beijing’s foreign, economic, and security policy in the region.
Nevertheless, post-COVID-19 the global order is palpably changing. China’s irresponsible handling of the pandemic and its aggressive posture during the pandemic has made countries realise of the real danger. Thus, the jigsaw puzzle seems to be getting solved as the conditions are unravelling in the region. Nations in the Indo-Pacific can no longer remain chasten or complacent to Chinese actions. Trough its smokescreen strategies like ‘peaceful rise’, ‘mask diplomacy’, ‘debt-trap’ diplomacy, ‘wolf warrior’, ‘salami-slicing’ tactics, etc. Beijing have continued to keep the countries in dark. While navigating changing geopolitical realities, the US and its allies and partners should no longer kowtow to Beijing’s threat or its charm offensive policies.
As the old adage goes, “The best defense is a good offense”. Therefore, countries must ensure ‘strategic clarity’ in their policy approach and emerge as an effective and potential counterweight to the Chinese influence in the region. The best option for countries is to avoid knee-jerk reactions or quick fix solutions because they will not be viable in the long run. It is imperative that nations in the Indo-Pacific take a long term view and adopt a multipronged approach towards megalomaniac China. Succinctly put, a rule-based global order and stable, peaceful Indo-Pacific requires an ‘unprecedented convergence’ of collective ideas and ‘sustained’ diplomatic, security and economic cooperation among the US partners and allies.
