28 November 2020, NIICE Commentary 6536
Prakash Jangid & Pratap Singh
After years of war and destruction the Graveyard of Empires is finally seen moving toward peace with the February 29, US-Taliban Peace Accord in Doha, Qatar. In light of the recent 2020 Afghanistan Conference, a ministerial pledging conference, co-hosted by Republic of Afghanistan, the Government of Finland and the United Nations, brought forward the role which the global community wishes to adhere for a peaceful and prosperous future Afghanistan. In the light of this debate, the article tries to bring forward the challenges in the peace process as there has been a history of failure to reach some kind of a political solution to this conflict, and the role of India as the single largest development partner of Afghanistan in Asia.
Intra-Afghan Contrast
On September 12, the Intra-Afghan talks finally started in Doha, almost six months after they were originally planned for. Assisted and overseen by the United States, representatives of the Ashraf Ghani government and the Taliban began the historic peace negotiations, with the agenda of ending the decades-old war and forging a political settlement. While both the parties have decided to sit together and talk, their visions for the country’s future differ profoundly. Abdullah Abdullah, the Chairman of the High Council for National Reconciliation and leader of the Afghan government’s delegation in Doha, laid emphasis on the preservation of democratic values and specifically human and women’s rights, but the Taliban may have other ideas as pitched by Sirajuddin Haqqani in the New York Times op-ed. The Taliban emphasised that Islamic system should be ‘inclusive’, but the group is yet to outline what this means, as the Afghan citizens are not ready to go back to the barbaric Taliban rule of 1996–2001.
The dispute between Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and former Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah on forming a comprehensive government and power sharing is still continuing. That means if Ghani and Abdullah don’t succeed in forming a comprehensive national government with the active engagement of all layers of society, it may undermine Kabul’s position during the Intra Afghan peace talks with the Taliban.
Fracture between Taliban and its Allies
The Taliban too, have grounds to worry about its internal unity. Today, the group is no longer a centralised movement. Instead, it is organised into many local cells, led by local military commanders with their own guidelines. The Haqqani Network having 20 percent force share in Taliban with its deputy leader Sirajuddin Haqqani, supported by Pakistan’s deep state ISI, have a key stake in decision making. Parts of the Taliban have refused to accept the US-Taliban agreement, and instances such as the formation of The Hezb-e Walayat-e Islami, or Party of Islamic Guardianship, soon after the deal was finalised, is an indication that the Taliban may lose some ground during Intra Afghan Dialogue. As cautioned by the Afghan Ministry of Defense’s former Chief of Staff Asadullah Khalid, the Taliban are in trouble, and there is some sort of crisis in the group. Some branches may breach the terms of the peace agreement, so the Taliban should control all its members.
With ISIS-K making its stronghold in the North-Eastern province of Nangarhar, the promise of not letting foreign terrorists on its soil before the Taliban is a big challenge. As there is evidence of transactional relation between the ISIS, Haqqani and LeT, this can open new front wars in the coming years.
The Gordian Knot – Pakistan
Pakistan has been the harbinger of all the terror outfits in the region dating back from the 1980’s, during the Soviet War to giving safe haven to Osama Bin Laden the mastermind of September 2001 attacks. While there is longing that the US-Taliban peace deal involving Pakistan could eventually lead to national reconciliation in Afghanistan, the Pakistani distinction of Good Taliban and Bad Taliban could affect the peace process. Taking a stricter approach, the United States in 2018 canceled USD 300 million aid to Pakistan over what it calls Islamabad’s failure to act against militant groups along with suspension of security aid and putting up barriers to International Monetary Fund transactions, forcing Pakistan to pressure the Taliban to accept the peace deal. As Pakistan’s cooperation is the core element and the US at times, given its leverage to Rawalpindi/Islamabad, take Pakistan along with it, have understood the fact that Islamabad’s approach could have a major impact on the achievement of peace in Afghanistan. After all the war-torn region of Afghanistan served as Pakistan’s El Dorado, helping it to earn billions of dollars and arms in the name of War on Terror, which it used for terror attacks mainly in Afghanistan and India.
Rise of ISIS-K (Khorasan)
ISIS has a small control over Northern Afghanistan, and is in a battle with Taliban, but the March 2020 attack on gurdwara in Kabul, brought forward the coming together of ISIS and the Haqqani Network. In May 2020, a United Nations report emphasized the network’s evolving partnership with ISIS-K, while considering that “most ISIS-K-claimed attacks had the involvement, facilitation and even technical assistance by the Haqqani Network.” The report even found intercepts proving ISIS-K claimed attacks were “traceable to known members of the Haqqani Network.”
Even though the information about ISIS-K’s actual fighting strength is not clear, approximately 2,200 fighters are believed to operate under the group’s banner across Afghanistan. This encompasses nearly 10 percent fighters having previous combat experience in Iraq and Syria. The ambiguity about ISIS-K persists, its composition is highly skewed with members from multiple splintered groups joining it over, with desire for new front wars. Today, the group maintains limited contact to its parent organization in Syria and Iraq and operates autonomously in Afghanistan. It is assumed that there are about 800 active Lashkar-e-Taiba fighters, mostly in eastern Afghanistan, who along with other splintered groups are trying to bind under the flag of ISIS-K, because the Taliban for the time being have a different plan to which the other warlords are not delighted.
ISIS-K’s operational capabilities are not as complex as seen during the 2014 seize of Iraq and Syria. In Afghanistan the Haqqanis have a competitive advantage and it maintains a strong operational presence in cities, including Kabul, Khost, Paktia, Wardak, Logar, Paktika, and Ghazni provinces. The LeT being a significant partner in the supply of weapons and foreign fighters into Afghanistan, have close knits with ISIS-K.
Role of India
Addressing the opening session of the Doha meeting, India’s External Affairs Minister (EAM) S. Jaishankar restated India’s standpoint, that the peace process must be “Afghan led, Afghan owned and Afghan controlled”. The US special representative to Afghanistan Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad and Russian Special Envoy to Afghanistan Ambassador Zamir Kabulov, have in past stated that if India had concerns regarding anti-India activities of terrorist groups in Afghanistan, then it must engage directly with the Taliban. A more active engagement will enable India to work with like minded forces in the region and the future stakeholders. After all, New Delhi needs to ensure that the vacuum created by the American withdrawal does not lead to an unraveling of the gains registered till now. During his visit to India Abdullah Abdullah said, India could play a vital role in establishing lasting peace in Afghanistan.
India being the largest regional contributor with the developmental assistance of USD 3 billion in the form of infrastructure building such as Salma Dam, capacity building programmes, hospital construction and community development projects across Afghanistan. As marked by EAM S Jaishankar on the announcement of USD 80 million Shahtoot Dam at Kabul in November 2020, “There is no part of Afghanistan today untouched by our 400-plus projects spread across all the 34 provinces of Afghanistan.” On the defence side military support to the conflict-hit country is limited to operational training, limited military equipment, and capacity-building courses assistance that was ramped up after the signing Strategic Partnership Agreement in October 2011.
New Delhi needs a policy shift, firstly because, the Taliban are expected to constitute an integral part of the government in Kabul soon enough. Second, diplomatic contacts with Taliban will be crucial in safeguarding India’s existing and future economic interests in the country, along with those linked to Central Asian energy markets and broader connectivity projects. Third, an easy-going relationship with the Taliban will provide India with some leverage over Afghanistan’s future, which will be critical in offsetting Pakistan’s efforts at vandalizing Indian stakes in the country.
Road Ahead
For the time, it is hard to envisage a way forward for Afghanistan. The running challenge is that the American piped dream to bring back its troops, will be achieved to a certain limit and the threat posed by new Taliban-allied jihadist groups cannot be ignored. As the closed-door talks are underway in Qatar, it will not be possible to assume what’s being cooked over there. But the past statements by both the parties show that they are at two different poles i.e. Afghan government and the Taliban, both having contradictions in their plan of future Afghanistan and its governance. Apart from everything being discussed, in the foreseeable future, the Intra-Afghan talks are viable options for peace but there is still a long road ahead and what comes out, needs to be seen.
