27 November 2020, NIICE Commentary 6511
Dr. Aniruddha Babar
Indo-Pacific is considered as the geopolitical construct that gained prominence in the 21st century. The main purpose of this construct is to promote security, peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. Indo-Pacific is also considered to be politically significant region, because it provides the potential of significant economic growth. The four important countries that are connected through the strategic indo-Pacific region are India, Japan, Australia and the United States of America. The four countries were looking towards strengthening the maritime security in the region and to enhance the economic activities between the four nations, they have discussed and formulated the ‘Quadrilateral Security dialogue’ (QUAD) to promote the sustainable peace and security in the region and mutual cooperation in relatively strategically sensitive region.
Although, QUAD is an informal strategic forum between the four nations, it is maintained effective information exchange, semi-regular summits, as well as the military drill between the nations. The four initiating countries had taken a keen interest in maintaining peace and rule of law within the Indo-Pacific region. However, the Quad mainly flourished in 2017, during the Trump administration, which came as a surprise. Many questioned this strategy, because there was a dramatic change in the US foreign policy approach after 2016, but the strategy towards Indo-Pacific region remains consistent, with the aim of developing and promoting friendly, collaborative and peaceful relations between the sovereign and independent nations in the region.
When the four nations were on the verge of formalizing their coalition, awaiting change in the White House had led to the uncertainty about the US foreign policy approach towards the Indo-Pacific. The US foreign policy towards China had changed under the Trump’s regime, under which Beijing was treated as the strategic rival and a political threat. It is still unclear how the new US administration under the leadership of Biden would respond towards China. According to experts, US’s stand on QUAD under Biden would remain unchanged. However, if US’s policy towards Indo-Pacific and China is flipped under Biden’s administration, it is likely to create greater instability and tension in Asia.
The major challenge for Biden’s administration would be to balance China, which is going to drive American Indo-Pacific Policy. China, and its growing assertiveness, has resulted in hardening the US’s perception. For example, a latest survey conducted by the Pew Research shows that the negative perception of China among American has increased by 20 percent since Donald Trump became the President of the United States. However, this perception of the American population is not related with “Trump Phenomenon’, rather it is mainly associated with the Chinese geopolitical behaviour and its coercive activities.
It has also been identified that China has been displaying various coercive activities in the Indo-Pacific region, specifically against Taiwan and Hong Kong in the South and East China seas; and against India along the India-China border. Secondly, it is evident that the QUAD dynamics are going to stay strong, as the four countries, India, Australia, Japan and the US are participating in the naval war games in Indian Ocean region. The four leading democracies of the QUAD are displaying strong relationship in response to the Chinese Foreign Policy.
Moreover, China’s mishandling and lack of transparency on the COVID-19 issue has also created problems globally. Thus, it is likely that Joe Biden’s administration would display a tough attitude towards China by strengthening the QUAD. It is expected that there would be significant structural and political changes in Biden’s administration, where he would look for new opportunities, approaches, priorities and constraints of the US foreign policy, however, he may not deviate from the current perspective that US have towards China. It is also possible for Biden to explore other ways and areas of cooperation with China and sort out the differences. While Trump’s administration was ‘transactional’, Biden’s administration might adopt ‘multilateralism’ approach for effective engagement and partnership. It is highly speculated that the Biden’s administration would focus on multilateralism, restore its relationship with its allies and form new alliances, which would be in contrast to ‘America First’ approach of Trump. Biden have expressed during his interviews that he looks towards making America as the global leader and rebuilding effective relationship with other countries. However, much depends on policy priorities and budget allocation as Biden’s administration will be engrossed with domestic issues such as responding the COVID-19 problem, tackling the domestic unrest, economic crisis and national debt of around USD 25 trillion.
The time and resources that Americans would place in the Indo-Pacific region or QUAD depends on the domestic factor. Historically, it has been observed that domestic problems and distractions have often eroded the American commitment towards the Indo-Pacific region. Despite all these circumstances, it is believed that Biden’s administration would result in a new era of the QUAD relationship, by turning it to economic alliance from the military alliance.
India, Japan, Australia and the US have displayed stronger partnership and alliance. US, Japan and Australia have also tied themselves into the bilateral and trilateral security alliances; with India being the part of the QUAD, there could be new opportunities of effective relationship between the US and India. Biden might pursue a more balanced foreign policy, but he cannot simply disregard the relationship that has been established between the QUAD members and US in the context of Indo-Pacific region because reducing or disregarding the commitment towards the QUAD would affect America’s position internationally, and would also result in destabilising foreign ventures.
Biden might choose a softer tone, and collaborative approach by establishing ‘competitive coexistence’ to balance China, however, China has been using its economic size and is influencing the smaller nations through its ‘Debt Diplomacy’, which is indirectly interfering with the foreign policy of America. Hence, China possess threat to peace and stability to the region, which will force Biden to expand US’s bilateral and multilateral ties with them to address the threats. Therefore, Indo-Pacific Strategy of US would remain intact in future, though Trump’s and Biden’s responses and approaches to deal with it might look different.
Biden’s administration would not have any negative impact on the QUAD dynamics as Biden has also shown interest towards ensuring secure, peaceful and prosperous Indo-Pacific region. Biden has also committed to host the ‘Summit for Democracy’ in the first year of his office, which displays an opportunity of improving and enhancing the international relations and improving the geopolitical alliances. Moreover, Biden’s administration is likely to focus more on the long term and sustainable approaches, to compel China to moderate it behaviour and promote better regional security. Finally, considering the contours of the changing political dynamics in the US, it is likely that Biden administration will continue strengthening the QUAD, while collaborating with India in multilateral settings which will hopefully bring Indo-US diplomacy in a win-win situation within its inherent complex, dark ‘rainbow superstructure’.
