24 November 2020, NIICE Commentary 6490
Kimberley Anne Nazareth
During the presidential campaign, Joe Biden the then-Democratic nominee for president, stated that as President, he would reverse many aspects of Trump’s foreign policy endeavours, including Iran. Biden signaled a re-entry into the ‘Iran Deal’ which will play an important role in his national security policy. This is easier said than done, given the international politics of both countries as well as the regional allies. Therefore, the question is whether Biden will change US policy or will he be forced to continue the existing US policy on Iran.
Historically, US-Iran relations have been contentious since the fall of the Shah and the hostage crisis. One of the main bones of contention between the two has been Israel; the US support Tel Aviv while Iran supports Palestine as well as Hamas and Hezbollah. There were periods of rapprochement during the Clinton and Obama administrations. Any progress made was squandered by President Trump. This was especially true when Trump withdrew US support from the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) and re-imposed sanctions on Tehran.
The incoming administration is faced with numerous challenges at home and abroad which takes precedence over Iran. The administration will spend much of its time and political capital to address COVID-19 and the economy which is supported by the American people. Biden is also set to use the power of the executive order to reverse many aspects of previous administration; for instance re-entering of the Climate Accord, the WTO, reverting the Muslim ban, and others.
On the home front, the Biden administration will have an uphill battle. There has been a great deal of reticence on the Iran Deal from the Republicans. The congressional make-up will no doubt play a major role; the Democrats were barely able to hold onto the House and Republicans, so far continue to control the Senate (the Georgia run-off election could tip the balance and the US is far more polarized than ever before). Most Democrats agree with Biden’s approach and will for most part support the President’s decisions. The Republicans will, in all likelihood, thwart the administration’s efforts to negotiate with Iran and will not accept a deal that does not appropriately address Tehran’s nuclear programme, the ballistic missiles programme as well as its posturing in the region. The latter includes its support for Assad, the Houthis in Yemen as well as Hamas and Hezbollah to name a few.
Biden has also discussed the idea of alleviating sanctions on Iran as a good faith gesture. However, Republicans could impose additional sanctions in an effort to thwart the rapprochement. Even if Republicans are not successful in pushing back, they in all probability, will continue the anti-Iranian rhetoric, passing numerous resolutions pertaining to human rights etc. as well as attempt at tighten sanctions; all these have the capability of stymieing Biden’s strategy. It could have a reverse effect and make the Iranian regime more hostile towards the US. This was seen especially in the aftermath of the 2018 withdrawal.
In addition to the anti-deal domestic forces in the US, Biden will also have to contend with the Iranian regime who has raised questions over the endurance of the deal. Iran has, on numerous occasions, crossed the threshold of enrichment which has further called into question the deal. The hardliners within Tehran will continue to create obstacles for Rouhani and the moderates in matters pertaining to US relations. These hardliners were skeptical of the deal to begin with, the IRGC did not support Rohani’s strategy of negotiations but Khamenei (to some extent) supported the deal and it, therefore, came to fruition. Iran has not reaped the economic benefits of the deal which further angered the hardliners. In a situation with the hardliners playing an important role in the decisions, the moderates could find themselves hamstrung. Moderates are also weary of US motivations in the region given the Republican rhetoric and actions. In the aftermath of the 2020 election, moderates like Rouhani stated that the next administration should “make up for past mistakes”. Thus, signaling a need for a change in policy.
In addition to the domestic environment, the international community like the P5+1 have expressed support for the incoming administration, especially on matters pertaining to the JCPOA. However, they are also aware that the domestic constraints on the incoming President are very real and relevant. In fact, they have viewed domestic politics with a great deal of skepticism in matters pertaining to US policy on Iran. Renegotiation of the deal has been tabled given the difficulty in the first time round and lack of interest of China and Russia. On the other hand, the regional allies were apprehensive about the ‘Iran Deal’ as it only addressed Iran’s nuclear programme. Trump’s pressure campaign has had a great deal of support from Saudi and Israel. But this pressure campaign has to some extent exacerbated the tensions in the region and has pushed the two sides to a war like situation with the incident involving the killing of General Solemani.
Biden no doubt will support the US regional allies in terms of military agreements. However, his approach towards Iran, could in many ways resemble with Obama, which created a trust deficit among allies. Biden in the past has supported agreements between Israel, UAE, Bahrain, and others; and will continue to do so. Saudi and Israel are inching towards an agreement, these agreements strengthen ties with Israel and in turn boost regional security. However, these agreements have also been seen by Iran as a form of containment.
For Biden, making inroads with the regional heavyweights could prove to be difficult. In the past, Biden, a pro-Israel Democrat, condemned the Israel’s expansion of the settlements as a threat to peace. He also condemned Riyadh’s role in the killing of Khashoggi and the humanitarian crisis in Yemen, as a result of the Saudi backed government. Therefore, given these concerns, the question is, will Biden be able to navigate the issue of Iran and bring the region on board with US support of the deal. Joe Biden, as of now, is constraining than enabling his strategy towards Iran. The combined domestic and international environments would make his task unachievable. It is clear that domestic politics will definitely play an important role in his foreign policy but to what extent will Biden allow, this is still questionable, given his power as President.
