7 November 2020, NIICE Commentary 6433
Binita Verma
The Arctic region has abundance of natural resources such as gas and oil, which are ready for exploitation by the great powers in the region. The major issues of the Arctic Circle were impacting majorly every country in the world. Firstly, major concern is of Climate Change and Global Warming. They basically result in the rise in the temperature, which leads to the shrinking of ice sheets and the potential release of methane because of which there is increase in global warming and climate change which is harmful. It causes change in vegetation and eventually leading to the destruction of the habitat of the animals and tribes living in those areas. Secondly, New territorial claims for resources, due to the shrinking of ice sheets, new water bodies are emerging and due to that the surrounding countries of Arctic Ocean, have started claiming these water bodies to harvest the resources, to exploit the resources that are present there, especially oil and natural gas. Thirdly, new trade routes have emerged. Due to all these changes, there is a new facility because of clear water that has shortened the trade routes. Free access of water bodies is allowed in international waters but due to the territorial claims of countries emerging, there will be no free access. Melting Arctic ice has opened shipping routes, the Northern Passage (Canada) and the Northern Sea Route. In warmer months, ships have started to use the Northern Sea Route that bypasses Singapore, unlike the Suez Route. Due to this shortened path, businesses will be profitable, as the cost of transportation will be less. Hence, a geographical or an environmental issue has turned out into a geopolitical and economic concern.
Since the Cold War, both the USSR (Russia now) and the United States have placed their powerful weapons and weapon technologies in the Arctic region. Most importantly, the Russian nuclear deterrent is primarily located in the Arctic and both the countries have developed an extensive surveillance system that would allow them to attack each other’s. As a result, Arctic became one of the most militarized regions of the world. Later, the US and Russia signed number of nuclear weapon reduction agreements in 1990s that gradually normalized the region. The two most important agreements were the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (STATRT 1), which saw the significant reduction of nuclear strategic and tactical weapons and the Arctic Military Environmental Cooperation (AMEC) agreement, which was a combined agreement between Russia, the US and Norway to decommission a large number of former Soviet nuclear-powered submarines. Though these programmes were successful in reducing the number of nuclear weapons and their launch vehicles from the Arctic zone, they did not void their commitments as both had core security policy based on their nuclear deterrent. The US reduced plentiful of the forces which were based in the Alaska and followed the reduction of their nuclear forces required by START. They also became very much distracted by a series of wars which happened in Afghanistan and Iraq following the terrorist attacks on their soil in 2001.
On the other hand, throughout the 1990s and 2000s, Russia was too weak to challenge the US and at the same time, US became focused in the war zone areas. However, the Arctic remained the main region of their security defence strategy for the deployment of nuclear weapon deterrent. There is an ongoing struggle for control over the Arctic among many countries and majorly between the US and Russia. This ‘New Cold War’ led the United States to maintain a strong military presence in the region to check over the Russian influence in the region. Russia too, seeks a stronger presence in the Arctic region to harness the natural resources.
There is a growing discussion whether the security environment of the Arctic is reentering a “new” Cold War. However, the era of Arctic ‘exceptionalism’ is coming to an end. During the Ukrainian crisis of 2014, Russia used military power to seize its territory which deteriorated their relations. But, there has been rising questions whether the cooperative environment will be preserved or the growing tensions between Russia and the West will result in a “new” Cold War in the Arctic. Later the truth came out that, there is no new Cold War. Likewise Arctic ‘exceptionalism’ never really meant the underlying security requirements of the two sides ever really dissipated. Instead what is happening is a rejuvenation of the Cold War with the Arctic as a core location of competition. This is becoming the new playing field for the main great power players who wants to exploit the natural resources for their basic requirements.
In 2019, both the two sides have been reinforcing and also escalating their forces centered on their deterrent forces and those forces are designed to respond to the force of other side. Later due to this reciprocity of actions, the two sides were quick to return to their Cold War position of resentment. Thus, the Arctic has never really stopped being the core security geographic location for the two major country. In the recent scenario of COVID-19, Chinese intervention has not stopped in to the Arctic region and it has been evident that since last few years, it has built its capacity to defend its interests in the region through an increasingly security focused Arctic policy that is majorly supported by its military capability. Denmark with the support of the US prevented China from buying an old military base in Greenland and later the US also suggested Denmark to reject Chinese offers to help build the international airports in Greenland. The United States’ reaction to the Chinese activities in the Arctic has been silenced but last year in 2019, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did call out China for criticism at an Arctic Council meeting, which gave clear indication that Chinese exploitation and their major policies towards China will not be welcomed by the United States. All this shows that how well we protect the Arctic region, but in this great power competition among countries who wants to grab as much as they want for self-sufficient is not enough and this take them to make any decision for their country.
