2 November 2020, NIICE Commentary 6423
Dr. Hemant Adlakha
In Chinese culture, the use of Chengyu is seen as sign of scholarship and erudition. Following QUAD talks in Tokyo and just concluded US-India 2+2 Dialogue in New Delhi, two chengyu are in frequent use in the commentaries by Chinese scholars. “When a spike and a clam quarrel, it is the fisherman who gains,” and “the longer one sleeps, the more one dreams.” In China, people just love to use chengyu or idioms in everyday life. These proverbs or metaphors – essential guide into Chinese culture and mindset – form a key component of a good piece of writing, including on foreign policy.
The first of the two idioms cited above, is in response to India shifting focus of over six month-long ongoing border standoff with China in the Himalayas to the high-seas following the vow taken by Mike Pompeo in New Delhi last Tuesday “to work closely with India to counter an increasingly aggressive China” as also reported by the Financial Times. The second idiom, in fact an ancient wisdom, according to the Chinese experts aptly describes the QUAD nations’ rhetoric on dreaming about the “Asian NATO” becoming a reality?
Scholars in mainland China rule out Japan and Australia joining any anti-China US-led clique in the Asia Pacific. Though India is seen as the most vulnerable, Beijing believes Taiwan to be the only “entity” in the region to be forced into any such US-led alliance in the region.
Three years ago, President Trump during his maiden visit to the Asia Pacific announced the re-birth of the US-Japan-Australia-India or QUAD Security Dialogue (QSD). Many analysts outside China speculated the move to be Trump’s attempt to try and come up with an alternative to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) – the centerpiece of President Barack Obama’s strategic pivot to Asia. Remember, President Trump had proudly announced the US withdrawal from the TPP on his first day in the White House.
Several commentaries appeared in the Chinese official media recalling how the QUAD concept had been gathering dust since it was first announced by the then Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s “bigger Asia” plan in 2007 in Manila – the same venue from where President Trump declared its re-birth in November 2017. Most Chinese IR experts as well as the strategic affairs analysts condescendingly dismissed QUAD 2.0 as a non-starter.”
The Chinese social media and netizens came with the most scornful rejection of QSD as “beggar’s club” of the “poor” nations comprising of the QUAD Four. However, with the QSD foreign ministers’ get-to-know-each-other Tokyo talks held three weeks ago and now US-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue in New Delhi – both aimed at putting together an “anti-China united front” by the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s last attempt as his three year tenure ends, a section of China’s strategic affairs community seems to be taking a serious note of the developments. Especially with the 2+2 Dialogue in New Delhi last Tuesday, delivering the BECA agreement – the fourth such US-India bilateral defense cooperation agreement following GSOMIA (General Security of Military Information Agreement) in 2002, LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement) in 2016 and COMCASA (Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement) in 2018, respectively.
Not surprisingly, Global Times came out with three editorials in 24 hours prior to Pompeo’s “last foreign trip” to Asia. “His term of office can be summarized in one sentence – he has pushed an all-round confrontation against China and endeavored to form an “anti-China united front” on the international stage,” Global Times wrote a few hours before the Secretary of State landed in New Delhi.
Tokyo FMs Talks Failed to Announce Formation of “Asian NATO”
Deng Luwen, thinks QUAD Tokyo Talks primarily failed to achieve its main purpose, i.e., to formally announce establishment of “Asian NATO” against China. Deng claims, in his press conference after the talks in Tokyo, Pompeo was categorical in stating “the US desire to further institutionalize cooperation among the four countries” and further expand it to other neighboring countries in the region in order to “establish a ‘united front’ against China, also known as ‘Asian NATO’.” However, despite their common goal of containing China, the other three countries of the quadruple group failed to echo the US hopes. This explains why the foreign ministers failed to issue a joint press statement in Tokyo, quipped Deng.
Three Factors Why QUAD 2.0 Cannot Form the Basis for “Asian NATO”
While acknowledging the US, Japan, India and Australia have successfully come together –in the Indian initiated Malabar military exercise, most Chinese experts dismiss Pompeo’s wishful thinking of establishing “Asian NATO” as an “excellent” concept but a distant reality.
Three common factors have been reflected in the recent Chinese discourse on why both QSD as well as “Asian NATO” will take exceptionally long years to fructify, if at all. Namely, the first is the willingness of the four countries, except the US – Japan, Australia and India, and in that specific order respectively; second, willingness of Asia Pacific region to join QSD to contain China; and, third and most important factor is China’s reaction.
All three factors are mutually reinforcing and carry equal importance, but it is going to be China more than the United States in determining the fate of either QUAD or “Asian NATO,”. “In other words, will China make them feel threatened? Will the three countries see the Chinese threat as real? Will they perceive China threat as causing great damage to their national security and national interests? If the answer to the questions is affirmative, it will be difficult to avoid formation of a mini NATO in Asia. But if the answer to the questions is negative, then no amount of US coercion can lead to formation of ‘anti-China united front’,” opined Deng Luwen.
India – The Most Vulnerable Yet the Weakest Among the Three
Reacting to Pompeo’s comments before leaving for the 4-nation Asia tour just days before the US presidential election, a professor from Shanghai’s Foreign Trade University wrote in his Weibo blog, China in the World, “Pompeo says India is ‘top priority’ in the US foreign policy. It is quite understandable.” On the other hand, Prime Minister Modi has ‘gambled’ big time by agreeing to hold 2+2 Dialogue on the eve of the US election. “If Trump is re-elected, Modi hopes to stand vindicated for two reasons: one, he enjoys excellent personal rapport with the US president; second, Trump-led US administration is fully backing up India in its ongoing military standoff with China,” the professor observed. If Trump fails to win, even then it is going to be a win-win scenario for Modi, and the Democrats too would love to resume where Obama had left off, the Shanghai academic said.
But does India have a choice? Not really, says the Utopia commentary. Among the QUAD four, the most enthusiastic link is the United States; Japan is the most prudent both in words and deeds and does not express its opinion so easily; Australia the most fidgety; and India sees itself as being the most “preferred and proud,” it said.
In the “Hit man” blog, India has been said to depart away from its traditional “exquisite” status of “independent” foreign policy to becoming a US (military) ally, mainly due to India finding itself locked in border standoff more often than not during the past decade. In fact, the Blog has even speculated whether India will be open to inviting Japan and Australia in next years’ Malabar military exercise? A similar view was expressed by Christopher Clary, a Nonresident Fellow with Stimson’s South Asia programme on the Indian television channel last Sunday. Clary, who had served as country director for South Asian affairs in the Office of the US Secretary of Defense (2006-2009), told NDTV: “It is true the US has very deep defense cooperation with both Australia and Japan. Bringing India on board is very important for the United States.
Finally, while lashing out at China in New Delhi, Pompeo stressed it was important the two largest democracies should come closer. On the other hand, scholars in China are saying that the Unites States and India are two largest COVID-19 hit countries, and they are also two “failed” states in the fight to contain the pandemic. Perhaps inadvertently, but still quite mysterious why some Chinese experts are using the first of the two ancient metaphors – Yu bang xiang zheng, maybe to warn India that in the two neighbors quarreling, it is the US who will be the eventual winner.
