27 October 2020, NIICE Commentary 6397
Tanveer Ahmad Khan
Geopolitics may be defined as what Great Powers engage in, what they practice and what they are best at. It is an art as well as practice of pursuing political power over a given territory. Conventionally, the term geopolitics has applied primarily to the impact of geography on politics, but over the period of time it has evolved to encompass a wider connotation. Geopolitics is as old as the state itself asserting that the geographical location, space, size and natural resources of a state determine its political position in global politics. In simple term, geopolitics plays the ultimate role in the making of strategies and policies, which obstruct or enhances the actions of states in the global domain.
During the Cold War Geopolitics emerged as the leading phenomena when the history witnessed two leading powers namely the United States and the Soviet Union, competing to amplify their areas of influences. While the former Soviet Union employed the dominant position in Eurasia, the United States abided with the policy of containment to challenge Soviet’s influence. In the post-cold war era after the disintegration of USSR, the shift of American foreign policy moved towards the rising China which was engraving its political position in the global politics. The China Containment policy of US aims to diminish the political and economic goal of China in Asia. The multifaceted policy accomplished by the US involves militarily, economic and diplomatic ties with countries that fall in the periphery of China. Asia witnessed a new geopolitical developments which includes Pivot to Asia and increased American involvement in Indo Pacific. The Indo-US nuclear deal was the latest manifestations of US containment to China as India was a proximate neighbour to China besides having upper hand in South Asia. The geopolitics of Asia was favouring the winds of US pivot to Asia. As Napoleon described China as sleeping giant, was awaken by the surface currents of power matrix that were aimed to curtail its rise. Throughout the post-cold war, China made a rigorous efforts to modernise its People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Besides, China was following the policy of Deng Xiaoping, “Hide your strength, bide your Time”. Under the Presidency of Xi Jinping, Chinas economic power has provided the rising China tremendous opportunities to engage with the neighbouring countries and to the world, providing the threshold to challenge the US hegemon as well as countering India’s rise. Beijing’s influence will certainly continue to grow and will upset Asia’s geopolitical balance. The most important strategic advantage that China possessed was the All Weather friendship with Pakistan. Based on the Kautliyan maxim of “my enemy’s enemy is my friend, the China-Pakistan alignment served the interests of both partners as it is prompted on their convergence vis-à-vis India. Both China and Pakistan perceived the growing Indo-US strategic cooperation as disturbing regional power structure by shifting the conventional and nuclear balance of power. The Indo-US nuclear deal from the Pakistani perspective was a shock as the latter has been their hitherto security and economic guarantor. Consequently, Pakistan perceived that the nuclear deal would advance India’s capability of pre-emptive attack over it because US has recognized India as a nuclear power. The post-Cold War US tilt towards India as an emerging great power gave further impetus and, thus, provided further excuse to both China and Pakistan to once again strengthen their ‘all-weather’ and time-tested friendship. Therefore, the mutual anxieties regarding India’s emergence as a responsible global power is acting as an adhesive to China and Pakistan to hold their relationship more strongly connected. The CPEC is toting up the troubles for India if one closely examines the strategic strings attached to it, as it will swell the capabilities of its arch-rival Pakistan, which faces severe economic and political headaches, where CPEC provides a big opportunity to stabilize its economy while refining ties with its neighbors and making Gwadar a trade and economic hub of the region.
Thus, even after the end of cold war Sino-Pak alignment survived and in fact got transformed to a formal alliance. This gets exemplified by the much talked China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) where China’s investment reaches to USD 62 billion in April 2017. CPEC and linking of Gwadar Port is an ambitious strategic plan of China’s ‘One Belt One Road’ project. Pakistan – situated between India, China, Central Asia and the Persian Gulf – occupies a central place in regional and broader Indo-Pacific geopolitics. In contemporary global politics as well as regional politics of South Asia, the China-Pakistan Axis holds an important place, which affects both the spheres. India, which is garnering its place in its own region as well as beyond has definite implications ranging from economic to security spheres.
Thus, the current China-Pakistan bonhomie in South Asia has tremendous geo-strategic implications for India as an emerging regional as well as global power. In view of the fact that not only do China and India compete for influence, they also operate within the same geographical setting, but India and Pakistan being at loggerheads, the latter is determined to change the existing regional balance of power. The exhibition of aggressive behaviour of China which India witnessed during the recent standoff in Ladakh, and in the South China Sea, opens up the possibility of China dominating the South Asia and the peripheral maritime.
