23 October 2o20, NIICE Commentary 6360
Dr. Nuzhat Nazneen
Power-politics dynamism in South Asia is creating international upheavals and is developing around two significant bilateral relationships – India-US and China-Pakistan. Both these ties offer perfect examples of marriages of convenience. Since independence Indian leaderships have indicated a strong Soviet inclination, solidified by the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, 1971. However, Pakistan has been with the US – the relationship which formally emerged with the Mutual Defense Assistance Agreement signed between them on 19 May 1954, which strengthened further in 1988 when Pakistan’s military establishments cooperated with the United States of America in its response to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Nonetheless, these equations are endorsing political alterations since the turn of the century, particularly since the present leaderships –of Narendra Modi in India and Imran Khan in Pakistan, have taken charge, and China has joined the political dynamics.
Recent Developments in the Region: Emphasising China
China’s economically boosting economy coupled with its politically repressive attitude in national politics and its foreign policy of territorial expansionism at regional level have placed China as a controversial country in international politics. Beijing’s unexpected challenge to US naval supremacy in the South China Sea after its rivalry with India in the Indian Ocean posed China as a common enemy to India and the US leading to an informal coalition between the two democracies. Subsequently, China found an ally in Pakistan to balance out the regional power equations. For Pakistan, it was an easy decision to change its strategic partnership and grow closer to China than to pro-Israeli US establishments. Controversial US intrusions into many Muslim majority countries in the Middle-East have been a bone of contention in the US-Pakistan relationship. Evidently, pro-capitalist reforms in India along with Pakistan’s incessant efforts in bringing Muslim-majority powers together in order to enhance their political influence, provided China an opportunity to deepen its political and economic ties in the region and beyond through Pakistan. Consequently, their political needs translated into China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Sino-Pak conviviality alongside economic gratification of the latter has unveiled China as a lucrative partner for development. Recently, in their ‘economic diplomacy’ China opened its market exempting tariffs for 97 percent of exports from Bangladesh and also secured USD 250 million contract for an airport terminal in Sylhet, Bangladesh’s sensitive border with India. After the economic blockade between India and Nepal in 2015, the latter stumbled on China as a commercially viable alternative. Coincidently or subsequently, the more China is delivering on its infrastructural projects in Nepal, which includes the airport in Pokhara, the Kathmandu-New Delhi ties are stooping. Concurrently, China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), a vital component of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) furthers Chinese presence in Myanmar because the project covers within itself three other proposals – the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone, the China-Myanmar Border Economic Zone, and the new urban development of Yangon City. Essentially, another significant actor in the region – Russia is swaying away from India due to underlying international structural changes and for its displeasure over India’s engagements with the US, Japan and Australia in the Asia Pacific region. Russia’s displeasure can be observed in its S-400 missile system deal with India which is getting delayed despite timely payments from India. However, Russia did not fail in delivering the consignments to China and Turkey.
Evaluation of the Political Ties Centring Regional Politics: Quiescent Ideological Differences
In international politics, nothing is permanent except national interests of the states. The natural question then arises as to what should be expected of these political ties and what sort of impact they have on the region. Inherently different philosophies of Islam in Pakistan and Communism in China have settled for a joint venture, considering political requirements. It is to stand the test of time; however, the bond is a matter of concern for both India and the US. Pakistan repeatedly affirms its long-term goal of establishing an influential bloc of Muslim nations and this inspires Pakistan to act as a link between China and other Muslim majority countries like Turkey and Iran. Therefore, Sino-Pak ties have both regional and international implications. Centrality of China is to be analysed at three different levels – national, regional and international. Nationally, it is responding well with its post-pandemic economy. It is a unique example of an economy taking a boost when other states are suffering financial deficits. Therefore, despite the pandemic, its economic diplomacy in the region is not to collapse anytime soon.
The US is struggling with its domestic politics, racism, dismantling banking system – overall a chaotic capitalist stage. Parallelly, China’s fiscal success is transcending into its political accomplishments in winning over the debtors who are to play roles in determining which way the regional and international balance of powers shift. India, at this crucial juncture is experiencing regional isolation. India’s subtle inclination to Israel is sufficient to irk many Muslim countries as well as the bloc Pakistan is struggling to establish with Turkey, Malaysia, Indonesia and Iran. At the same time, China – a rival to the US, is attracting geographically smaller but strategically vital nations. Also owing to rapidly evolving geopolitical realities, Moscow’s foreign policy prioritises pushing back of the western influence for which cooperation with China is a justifiable retort to its problems with the West. So, the overall picture appears gloomy for India in the region and for the US in the international politics via political loss of its hegemony in Asia.
Conclusion
Despite ideological differences and China’s controversial treatment of Uyghur Muslims, the Sino-Pakistan connexion is proliferating. It is a lesson to learn from. India needs to act on the changing tides in the region first. China is an expansionist nation and has border issues not only with India but also with other South Asian nations. However, China’s vulnerability as it is sharing the geography of the region provides a scope to be explored by India. Indian foreign policy makers can learn from the US and its policies with its conflicting neighbours – Venezuela and Cuba. US make sure to have its battlefield either in the Middle-East or in Asia, particularly Afghanistan. Chaos in the Asian region is a political boon for the US as it gives the chance to keep China engaged in the regional anarchy. Consequently, it can continue with its weapon trading with its allies in the region, particularly India. It is time for India to make drastic changes in its foreign policy. It is a political suicide to continue with its pro-American foreign policy at the cost of isolation and indifference in the region. Moreover, learning from the experiences of Pakistan with the US in its 1971 War and considering what Henry Kissinger once said that, “[I]t may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal’, India needs to gain back its hold on the region, even if it means compromising the ties with the US.
