Realpolitik 2020: US Decline and the Rise of China

Ever so often the history of International Relations (IR) has witnessed that the rise-recover-fall of states happens in that order, notably in the cases of ancient China and European empires. Currently, the decline of the United States equates to the progress of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). IR scholars were noticing the changes in US external affairs after the subprime crisis (2008). Since World War II, the obligatory superpower witnessed massive shocks from the Indo-China tensions, the Middle East, and today, from its escalating struggles with Iran (over JCPOA), Venezuela (2019), and China, in the South China Sea.

Being a founding or a key member of many world institutions, currently, the US actions are not up to the promises it made during the 1920s Washington-centered world order. The US is now blaming these institutions, such as the UN and its agencies, in addition to its calculative actions on the Africa-aid, shady relations with the EU, conditional withdrawal of the armies from Afghanistan, and exiting from Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). On very similar lines, the current leadership is rebuilding its affairs with increased patriotism, combined with a business-oriented, anti-globalisation American foreign policy. It is following the pattern of preemptive and selective engagement, employing conflict-based foreign policies to maintain its presence and supremacy over developing nations.

The causes could be the set of political ideas employed recently in the US politics, such as pro-market-ism, conservatism, liberalism, and pro-European-ism. In contrast, the US raised the defense and national budget to exhibit its supremacy on purpose. The US-NATO defense budgeting, deliberate interference in the middle-east crisis and the Afghanistan crisis, etc. resulted in the US not being a beneficiary of its institutions. So, the US started an approach of self-distancing.

Strategically, the US moved into the limelight and chose to project its ambitions collaboratively with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and the European Union (EU), to benefit more significantly than others. Additionally,, it also shaped strong relations with the QUAD plus. Many, including its members, believe that the US-led QUAD is the primary counterbalancing alliance against Beijing. These include liberal-democratic nations such as the US, the EU, Great Britain, and the ancillary actors, namely South Korea, Japan, Australia, and India.

The US is failing to create multiple sources of balance to Beijing politics. Apart from this, the US is trying to activate its adventurous cordial relationship in the US-Israel-UAE trio, while working hard to raise multiplayer issues as part of supporting Great Britain and Hong Kong pro-democracy leaders. Washington is desperately trying to deactivate sub-regional groups, and the US stands by their side for glory, yet wants the status quo to be shifted to its side. The liberal-democratic world is claiming that China’s Dream and aspirations are the primary movers for Beijing’s rise, something that is now lacking in the US itself.

China has experienced many rises and falls in assessing its fortune over its 5000-years uninterrupted saga. Centuries-old philosophies and doctrines developed by Zhōu, Qín, Táng, Sòng, and Míng dynasties are still relevant to its domestic and foreign affairs. Since then, the Chinese were building a linear and progressive scheme that was continued by Chairman Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping, through Mao’s Five-finger policy, Deng Xiaoping’s 24-character program, Jiang Zemin’s politics above complexity and stability, Hu Jintao’s strategic continuity, and Xi Jinping’s vision for a centralised and bureaucratic nation-state, that fulfils the ‘Chinese Dream’.

The US has failed to manage its institutions, when China is building its emergence on the same system without disturbing its basic principles. China is profoundly influencing its immediate neighbourhood through conventional diplomacy, extending its hand of help in developmental assistance, regional stability and economic empowerment. For example, Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi invited the SAARC heads of the state for the swearing-in ceremony as part of immediate neighbourhood policy. So, during Modi’s second-swearing in ceremony, China conducted its external policy trials in ASEAN in 2019. Also, China is stabilising its presence in South Asia (except for in India). Moreover, India has not been prosperous in the ASEAN region as China and Chinese allies have. Whenever India leans towards US policies, China succeeds in increasingly becoming the torchbearer of developing states.

Logically through Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China was rendered to manage mineral ores and markets where the US lacked, around the world. The Xi Jinping-Vladimir Putin duo has made a new-normal proclamation based on the foundation of the decline of a US-led, bloc, due to the patriotic/nationalistic elected governments in this bloc’s nations.

China has built its diplomatic web through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Peaceful development is not a threat, and there would be no growth and development without peace and stability. In contrast, Beijing is marketing its China model for peaceful development and transition to build a multi-polar world with essentially Chinese characteristics. Beijing has the capacity to mobilise, build and sustain policies with its allies, to counter Washington’s politics.

The environment in the BRI nations can contribute to the birth of a socialist ideology. This time it is not too far away to become a reality. The cage around the Dragon is not like an Iron curtain this time. Overall, the Beijing-led global affairs seem to have more positives than US-led politics. China’s quick and stable growth presents the idea that it always has a coherent strategy, long-term planning on production, and relevant scientific technologies. Success in China depends on its ability to share whatever possible with the world, while keeping the critical advantages hidden. Contemporary relations between the US and China are going through a very hard time, in terms of global market rivalries and the polarisation of global affairs. Chinese realpolitik is consolidated under Xi, while he also re-engineers the ideals of the founders of the People’s Republic of China, with contemporary global aspirations. China wants to conduct its external affairs without comprising its sovereignty, and that of its allies. Therefore, China wants to maintain its status among developing and developed states, by trying to project itself as an advanced developing state. Therefore, the present world order is no longer what it used to be post-Cold-War. China’s geopolitical advancement is not anew, but it is on the rise.