25 August 2020, NIICE Commentary 5869
Rangoli Mitra
The term “Indo-Pacific” dates back to the 1920s when it was first used by the German scholar Karl Haushofer. It was revived by the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and mentioned in his speech to the Indian Parliament that talked about the “Confluence of the Indian and Pacific Oceans” as the “dynamic coupling” of “freedom and prosperity” in Asia in 2007 that materialised into the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue also known as the Quad comprising of the United States (US), Japan, Australia and India. Due to the lack of a proper shared vision, Quad 1.0 decimated quickly. However, China’s growing assertiveness coupled with North Korea’s nuclearisation led to a critical security imbalance in Asia which resulted in the coming together of the Quad countries again in 2017.
There have been speculations about the current purpose of Quad in its present form being only to serve as a deterrent to China. It was described as the “Asian NATO” and a disparate grouping of nations being unable to espouse a common vision. This commentary argues that the Quad, albeit an informal group has the potential to develop into a comprehensive regional security complex in the Indo-pacific. The basis is the support for the “free and open Indo-Pacific concept” (as formulated by Abe), shared democratic and liberal values and promotion of a rules-based international order to essentially maintain the balance of power and deter China’s growing maritime assertiveness.
Quad in Action
The story of the Quad is one of gradual convergence. Since its revival in 2017, the four countries –US, Japan, Australia and India allowed the Quad to slowly gain momentum.The quad was described by the Japanese Prime Minister Abe as the “democratic security diamond”. It rests on the notion of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific concept” and the promotion of a rule-based order which existed since the Second World War. That order addressed the rules of navigation, the infrastructure and the mechanisms of operation in the geographies. Within the Quad – US, Japan and Australia discussed the freedom of navigation and overflight and the coordination of maritime security efforts; and US, India and Australia discussed connectivity which has now manifested into developing infrastructure in their spheres of influence. This is not to suggest however, that a focus on different aspects of security makes the grouping less cohesive. The Quad also deeply values Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) centrality. Quad meetings have continued at a senior official level on a bi-annual basis. According to a press release by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs in November 2018, the Quad is focused on discussing the issues of “connectivity, sustainable development, counter-terrorism, non-proliferation and maritime and cyber security, with a view to promoting peace, stability and prosperity in an increasingly inter-connected Indo-Pacific region”.
The strength of the Quad also stems from the strong engagement at the bilateral and trilateral levels. The Trilateral Strategic Dialogue involving US, Japan and Australia is one of the strongest ‘minilaterals’ and what makes it even more unique is the deep relationship shared by Australia and Japan. India, US and Japan held a trilateral summit meeting in 2018 and highlighted the significance of joint-exercises such as Malabar and Cope India. India and Australia have elevated their relationship to one of “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership”, signed the Mutual Logistics Support arrangement and released the India-Australia ‘Shared Vision for Maritime Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific’ on 4 June 2020. In July 2020, the US concluded holding parallel exercises in the Philippine Sea and the Indian Ocean involving the Quad nations. This comes in the backdrop of an enthusiastic Australia seeking to be a part of the Malabar exercises. All this points to a growing convergence among the quad nations and signifies their deep commitment to rapidly regularize military engagement which could lead to the formation of working groups focused on maritime security.
Prospects Ahead
The tightening of the Quad is because of growing tensions over China’s actions in a plethora of arenas even in the midst of a global pandemic. China shows no signs of abatement; one that is alienating its friends even though they have strong economic relationships. In this sense, Australia serves as a useful example. Australia released its 2020 Defense Strategic Update which highlights that the Indo-Pacific is witnessing the “most consequential strategic realignment” and reveals the prospect of “high intensity military conflict” being less remote than in the past. Australia is working towards enhancing its defense partnerships including support for the Pacific step-up objectives. Similarly, the US in its 2018 National Defense Strategy mentioned about a network security architecture capable of deterring aggression and ensuring free access to global commons.
Japan has been the harbinger of this concept and has undertaken significant structural and legislative changes to bolster its role as a “proactive contributor to peace”, underpinned by the notion of positive pacifism. Japan’s Defence White Paper 2020 reiterates that “the Indo-Pacific region is the core of the world’s vitality” and “it is important to establish this region as a free and open global commons.” It also envisages securing maritime shipping lanes and protecting its infrastructure. The ball is now in India’s court. New Delhi needs to reassess its “China Connect” diplomacy and play a larger role in the Quad with respect to its pivotal position in the Indo-Pacific.
The commonality of values along with shared interests and capabilities has actually provided the Quad with a wholesome opportunity to protect its common strategic interests. The Quad’s military embrace is a welcome step even though it will have implications for regional and global security. However, it should continue to focus on “softer initiatives” such as enhancing maritime situational awareness, boost non-traditional security cooperation and build the blue dot network with strategic purpose. The Quad has emerged as a dynamic grouping; one that is here to stay. But, it has to tread carefully and conduct continuous risk assessments in order to keep its mandate and purpose intact.
