24 August 2020, NIICE Commentary 5856
Tridivesh Singh Maini & Madhav Grover
The Abraham Accord, signed on 12 August 2020 between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel (and brokered by the United States) came as a surprise for many observers globally given the complexities of the Arab-Israel relationship. The ‘Abraham Accord’ is also being dubbed by many, especially supporters of US Donald Trump as a foreign policy success for the US President, having it compared with the Camp David Accord signed between Egypt and Israel. Trump is likely to tout this as his achievement and distract the public attention from his mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it remains to be seen whether this is possible.
The accord is an agreement which establishes normal relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates. The agreement will lead to in time, full diplomatic relations at an ambassadorial level. It is important in the economic context, since it seeks to strengthen business, trade, tourism, direct flights. The agreement in its own way is very historic as it creates a fruitful ground for possible peace in the region.
Another important aspect of the plan is that it seeks to stall Israel’s plans for annexing territories in the West Bank. This is landmark decision and has sent shock waves around the world with some reactions positively, others are in vehement opposition. However, the opinion may be on the move as it is being seen to be a very important event in international relations having far reaching implications for the future of West Asian Region.
Criticism of the deal
The deal has faced scathing criticism by Palestinian Authority, Pakistan, Turkey, Hamas among others calling out UAE for ‘Backstabbing’ the Arab cause. The Leaders of UAE and Israel have also faced fervent opposition in their own countries. The statement given out by the UAE says the move ‘Stopped’ the plans of annexation in West Bank, whereas the Israelis maintain that its only ‘delayed’. Both sides need to keep their domestic constituencies in good humour, and these reassurances, both the UAE and Israel, are aimed at doing the same (the deal is driven by realpolitik).
Will GCC Follow the Suit?
Other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations like Bahrain, Oman etc. may follow the example of UAE and seek to normalise relations with Israel. This is also due to the the fact that countries such as Bahrain and Oman welcomed the deal and supported the UAE and the deal amid growing criticism. The United States is expected to broker such deals, with these nations. There are also growing speculation, that back channel negotiations are already going on for concluding such deals.
Emergence of Two Rival Groups within the Islamic World
This is historic for the region, as it puts emphasis on the new priorities of the Gulf states. We can now see that the countries which are aligned with the Saudi and US dominated GCC are seeking to enhance ties with Israel, reorienting their economic paradigms, and looking at countering new threats. For GCC countries, the growing dominance of Iran, and also limiting other players such as Turkey and Pakistan in the Islamic World is an important priority (though it would be pertinent to mention that even the UAE and Israel are seeking to improve relations). While GCC countries and Israel both are worried of Iran’s increasing economic and strategic rise, Washington is keen to check the Iran, Russia and China alliance.
Impact on South Asia
The deal will also have an important impact within South Asia. It is likely that the Pakistan, Turkey, Iran axis will strengthen. Given the deterioration of Pakistan’s ties with Saudi Arabia in recent times (though Islamabad and Riyadh have made efforts to get their relations back on track), it has been looking to strengthen relations with Turkey and Iran and such efforts may get a further fillip. The Pakistan PM was critical of UAE’s move and stated that his country would support the Palestinian cause and Kashmir. Interestingly, there are observers in Pakistan who believe that the South Asian nation needs to adopt a more pragmatic stance towards Israel and think about giving it diplomatic recognition, while not giving up its support for the Palestinian Issue.
New Delhi on the other hand is likely to further strengthen linkages with UAE and other GCC countries. The agreement means that India will not need to balance its relations between Israel and GCC countries as New Delhi’s economic and strategic ties with the regional bloc have burgeoned in recent years.
Conclusion
It would be pertinent to point out, that the Middle East is a very complex region and diplomacy is about nuances – there is no black and white. Yet a number of important changes, prompted by external forces, are taking place and will have an impact not just on Middle East itself, but other regions like neighbouring South Asia as well as the geopolitical order.
