19 August 2020, NIICE Commentary 5831
Kartik Bommakanti
Over the last one-year, India’s relationship with one wing of the US Congress under the Democrat controlled House of Representatives has frayed to some extent due to the voiding of Article 370, the adoption of Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the National Registry for Citizens (NRC). Regardless of the controversy surrounding the implementation of these measures, the US House of Representatives conducted a series of hearings. The larger issue surrounding civil liberties in Indian Kashmir and beyond that animates concern in sections of the Congressional leadership of the Democratic Party will assume greater significance if the Democrats take control of both houses of the US Congress and the White House on 3 November 2020 due to President Trump’s unpopularity with the American electorate.
Come November with one party controlling both the legislative and executive branches in the US, New Delhi will have its hands full in tackling a range of pressures. While a lot of Indian concerns particularly from officialdom tend to revolve around the interference in India’s internal affairs over Article 370, CAA and NRC, the Modi government will need to pay close attention to the direction of the Biden Presidency’ foreign policy that extend beyond human rights and democracy.
The Democratic presidential nominee Joseph Biden has picked Senator Kamala Harris as his running mate. Born to an Indian origin mother and Jamaican origin father, Harris’ biracial identity especially for both Americans of Asian as well as African extraction is likely to energize voters from both these key demographic groups for the Biden-Harris ticket. Biden has expressed the view that if elected, he will sustain the positive momentum in the relationship stating emphatically that India and America are tethered to a “special bond that has deepened over many years”. Notwithstanding the euphoria among some quarters within Indian and American establishments, if the Biden-Harris ticket were to win the presidential contest on 3 November 2020, New Delhi is likely to face fresh pressures on two fronts from Washington – nonproliferation and Russia.
The liberal wing of Biden and Harris’ party which is ascendant today will do everything to extract its pound of flesh. American non-proliferationists who are overwhelmingly liberals and form a key constituency of the Democratic Party will need to be countered by India. Otherwise, India risks the pernicious influence over key policy choices a prospective President Biden will make, that seek to disadvantage India in core strategic capabilities.
Pummeling India over its ties with Russia could be driven more strongly by the Democrats due to the deep animus many nurse towards Russia for its interference in the 2016 presidential elections, which they believed denied Hillary Clinton the Presidency enabling an “upstart” in Donald Trump with no experience in public office to win the White House in 2016. Indeed, recent evidence suggests that while Republicans and Democrats both concede Russian interference in the electoral process of the US, they are sharply divided over the intent behind Russian interference. Following classified security briefings by US intelligence, the Democrats see a widespread and malign role of Russian intelligence involvement in influencing electoral outcomes. Whereas Republicans do not see anything malicious or sinister motives behind Russia’s role. However, the last thing India needs is a frictional relationship between Moscow and Washington under a President Biden as a modicum of comity between these two Cold War rivals works to New Delhi advantage or at least reduces pressures on India. A fresh round of sanctions passed by a Democrat-controlled Congress that require compliance from third countries such as India will hurt and sow more frictions, which the executive branch under Biden may steadfastly restrain and dilute, but may be compelled to pursue as a concession to liberals of his party.
Indeed, compounding Russian interference is Chinese interference in the 2020 US Presidential election, whose agenda stands at odds with the Russians as the Chinese are believed to be influencing the direction of the election campaign that helps Joseph Biden win the White House, because Trump is seen as too unpredictable. In other words, the Chinese fear Trump more than they do Biden, as the former has done more to confront the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) than any US President in decades. It is very likely Beijing sees Biden to be more malleable or soft on trade issues currently bedeviling Sino-US relations and skittish in Washington’s response to Beijing’s aggressiveness in the Indo-Pacific. Which is precisely why we witness Beijing’s preference for Biden over Trump. Conversely, for liberal elites and the liberal activist segment of the Democratic Party, under whose pressure Biden will be, the preference for confronting the Russian Federation over the PRC is likely to be greater because the former is a weaker power as opposed to the latter.
The Modi government should prepare and concentrate effort in warding off the dual coercion New Delhi is likely to face under a prospective Biden Presidency. Biden himself might not want to queer the pitch by tying the progress of US-India relations to American contrived benchmarks on Russia and nonproliferation. A former Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman as well as Ranking member, Biden has all the credentials for being an effective steward of US foreign policy. Anthony Blinken, a Biden campaign foreign policy advisor and a former deputy Secretary of State under Obama did state emphatically that Chinese conduct means that India and the US “…have a common challenge which has to deal with an increasingly assertive China across the, including its aggression toward India at the Line of Actual Control…” A statement like this should assuage concerns and allay fears within Delhi, but Blinken further added that Biden would support India permanent membership to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), which should be the last of India’s priorities except for Mandarins in the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and retired diplomats in New Delhi whose hearts flutter for a seat at the horse-shoe high table. Rather, Biden and his foreign policy team once in the White House could be distracted by issues surrounding Russia and nonproliferation, diluting strategic attention to the structural realities facing the states across the stretch of the Indo-Pacific precipitated by the growth of Chinese power and its minatory assertion. Consequently, India and the US could be on the road to a more frictional relationship under Biden as opposed to Trump.
