4 August 2020, NIICE Commentary 5767
Dr. Gulbin Sultana
Sri Lanka is all set to conduct Parliamentary elections on 5 August 2020. The 2020 Parliamentary elections will witness the emergence of newly formed political parties as major actors in Sri Lankan politics. Traditionally the two main political parties in Sri Lanka – the United National Party (UNP) and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), formed government either on their own or with the assistance of other political parties. After the 2015 Presidential elections, the two parties came together to form the National Unity Government (NUG). Both UNP and the SLFP are, however, participating in tomorrow’s elections from the position of weaknesses.
The developments leading to the formation of the NUG in 2015; and president of the SLFP and the then President Maithripala Sirisena’s approach towards the issue of governance as well as party affairs during his presidency from 2015-2019, weaken the position of the SLFP. The breakaway faction of the SLFP led by Mahinda Rajapaksa formed a new party called Sri Lanka Padajana Peramuna (SLPP) in 2017 and since then emerged as a dominant actor in Sri Lankan politics. SLPP not only got overwhelming support in the local council elections in 2017, but its Presidential nominee Gotabaya Rajapaksa emerged victorious in the 2019 Presidential elections. The position of the SLFP led by Maithripala Sirisena got weakened to the extent that it could not find a suitable candidate to be nominated for the 2019 Presidential race. To save the political future of the party, Sirisena entered into an electoral alliance with the SLPP led alliance known as Sri Lanka Nidhahas Podujana Sandhanaya (SLNPS) for 2020 parliamentary elections. All the alliance partners of the SLNPS are going to contest the Parliamentary elections under the SLPP banner and its symbol of a lotus bud. SLFP has decided to contest with the SLPP in 18 districts except for four minority-dominated districts where it will contest under its symbol of the hand.
The UNP, on the other hand, has been facing a leadership crisis since 2010. As a result, the position of the party had gone down significantly. Nonetheless, before the 2015 Presidential elections, it could manage to strengthen its position and subsequently performed well in the 2015 Parliamentary elections. Unfortunately, the crack in the party reappeared again before the 2019 Presidential elections, due to the differences in opinion between the party leader Ranil Wickremesinghe and the deputy leader Sajith Premadasa on the issue of nomination of the candidate for the presidential race. Post Presidential elections differences between the two leaders further widened. On 2 March 2020, Sajith Premadasa launched electoral alliance Samagi Jana Balayegaya (SJB) with several political parties (such as Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU), The Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), The All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC), The Tamil Progressive Alliance and the United Leftist party) to contest the Parliamentary elections. Though the SJB was launched with the approval of the UNP working committee, the former was not permitted to use the UNP’s elephant symbol to contest the elections by the latter. While most of the members of the SJB wanted to contest elections under UNP’s original Elephant symbol, the UNP working Committee suggested SJB use the Swan symbol. On 4 March 2020, the UNP working committee decided not to contest the upcoming General Elections under the SJB. SJB also decided not to participate in any of the UNP Working Committee meetings. It was also decided by the SJB that until and unless the UNP leader Wickremesinghe and UNP General Secretary step down from their position, UNP would not be welcomed as part of the SJB alliance. On 7 March 2020, UNP informed the Election Commission that it would contest the election in all 22 districts under the recognised elephant symbol. SJB decided to contest the parliamentary elections under the symbol of the Telephone. Thus, the UNP led by Ranil Wickremesinghe and SJB led by Sajith Premadasa emerged as two different political entities.
The division between the two parties has further weakened the UNP’s position, as the majority of the UNP Parliamentary group members are with the SJB. Also, the parties which extended their support to the SJB on 2 March 2020, decided to continue with the alliance. UNP on the other hand is contesting on its own without entering into any alliance with other parties. According to many commentators, Sajith Premadasa’s SJB has a better chance in the polls than Wickremesinghe’s UNP. It is anticipated that the main contest will be between the SLNPS led by Mahinda Rajapaksa (former President and brother of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa) and the SJB.
However, SJB has its disadvantages. It got limited time to campaign and sensitise the voters about the new symbol it is using for the elections. Another disadvantage of the SJB is the claim of the UNP leaders that the nomination of the candidates by the SJB is illegal and therefore, all the nominees are likely to lose their seats even after winning the elections as the UNP has filed a case in the court. The validity of this claim can be ascertained by the court alone. However, this may have a psychological effect on the voter and they may restrain themselves from voting for the SJB.
The split into the UNP and the SLFP’s decision to contest under lotus bud have benefitted the SLPP immensely, as it is likely to gain the maximum number of seats. SLPP did not submit a special manifesto for the 2020 parliamentary elections. Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s vision for prosperity presented during the 2019 Presidential elections has been presented to the voters for the parliamentary elections too. Protecting the country from the scourge of terrorism and extremism is the main agenda of the SLPP. National security has been given the paramount importance and Gotabaya Rajapaksa believes that once the national security is established achieving economic development will not be an insurmountable challenge. In the aftermath of the Easter Sunday bombing in 2019, a large section of Sri Lankans particularly from the Sinhala community believes that the security of the country can best be ensured under a strong government headed by Rajapaksas. At the same time, concerns are also being expressed by many on the fate of democracy, minority, human rights, and media freedom under SLPP led government. During the campaign period, assurances were also sought from President and the SLPP leaders to cancel all the deals with foreign countries which according to the nationalists make provision for selling the country’s strategic assets. Huge protests were organised against the proposed Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) deal and the deal on the development of Colombo Port East Container Terminal. Hence, while it is certain that SLPP led alliance is likely to form the government, it is to see whether it manages to get the two-thirds majority in the Parliament.
The main Tamil party, Tamil National Alliance (TNA), is contesting from the Tamil dominated North and East Province. Eelam People’s Democratic Party (EPDP) is also another Tamil party that had representation in the previous parliaments from Tamil dominated areas. EPDP in the last Presidential elections campaigned for Gotabaya Rajapaksa. However, in this Parliamentary election, it is contesting on its own in Jaffna district, where SLPP has decided not to contest. Even though the popularity of the TNA has gone down in the North-East province it still has a better support system compared to the other Tamil parties. Hence TNA in all likelihood will have a maximum number of representation in the Parliament from Tamil dominated areas of North and East. The Tamil Progressive Alliance which is a group comprised of the Tamil parties based outside north and east province has joined the SJB alliance. Except for EPDP in the north and Tamil Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal (TMVP) in the East, the parties belong to minority communities (Tamils and Muslims) have not entered into an electoral understanding with the SLPP.
SLPP led alliance, which is likely to emerge as victorious in tomorrow’s elections, is not depending much on the minority votes. But would the parties belong to minority communities join the government, in case their support is sought in the post-election period? Rumour is about the possibility of the Sajith Premadasa led SJB and TNA joining SLPP led government after winning the election. President Gotabaya Rajapksa, by proclamation has summoned the new Parliament on 20 August 2020. As Sri Lanka is going for the election tomorrow, interesting political developments are in the offing in Sri Lanka in the next 15 days.
