29 July 2020, NIICE Commentary 5735
Don McLain Gill
The global spread of the Coronavirus pandemic has significantly augmented the trajectory of China’s BRI (Belt and Road Initiative), particularly in Africa where projects have either been on hold or have been receiving minimal work. With the BRI on a downward curve in the continent, India and Japan can maximize the potential and operationalization of the AAGC (Asia-Africa Growth Corridor) to serve as an alternative for African states and possibly become a counter-weight to the monopolistic grasp of the BRI. This paper argues that at a time when China’s BRI is facing significant pressure, India and Japan must revive the AAGC to maximize its reach and operations in Africa.
BRI in Africa
According to Jevans Nyabiage, a correspondent of the South China Morning Post, China revealed that about a fifth of the BRI projects had been “seriously affected” by the pandemic. Wang Xiaolong, the Director General of the Foreign Ministry’s International Economic Affairs Department, stated that an estimate of about 40 percent of the projects were significantly affected, and a further 30-40 percent were “somewhat affected”.
In addition, several African states have not been able to continue with mega projects, mostly funded by Beijing, because they are struggling to service debts. In Nigeria, a USD 1.5 billion Rail Project is facing delay because of Coronavirus disruptions, while many Chinese funded projects in Zambia, Zimbabwe, Algeria and Egypt have been put on hold or may be delayed as the countries fight to control the spread of COVID-19.
A major issue revolving around the BRI also centers on the lack of transparency involved in the overall process. China’s predatory lending and debt trap strategy have become common narratives that run through the continent of Africa. According to former British diplomat John Dobson, governments of Africa owe China more than USD150 billion. Several African states have been in a serious predicament even before the devastating economic effects of the pandemic. These conditions have added to the tumultuous financial situation faced by Africa with respect to the BRI.
In addition, China’s recent actions throughout the pandemic have stained its reputation and undermined its global aims. The level of belligerence of the Chinese regime towards Xinjiang, Tibet, Taiwan, Hong Kong, India, the South China Sea, Australia, the UK, and the US cannot be left unnoticed in the other parts of the world. Moreover, instead of being transparent about the causes of the Coronavirus, China has opted to devise a strategy with the World Health Organization to conceal vital information about the origins of the virus outbreak.
In sum, the lack of transparency involved in the BRI coupled with China’s growing assertion and the crippling effects of the pandemic have caused African states to rethink their approach towards China and the BRI. This opens possibilities for other players to come in and act as a counterweight or alternative to the supposed monopoly of Beijing in the continent.
What is the AAGC?
The 2016 India-Japan joint statement underscored the importance of coordinating bilaterally and with other states for developing better regional economic linkages, connectivity, and industrial networks employing collective capabilities. The joint statement highlighted how improved ties between Asia and Africa will bring about economic prosperity and encourage sustainable development. This can be done through the setting up of institutional and industrial corridors and networks for capacity enhancement, free movement of people, trade, investment, and partnership for infrastructure. As a result, this eventually led to the conceptualization of the AAGC in November 2016.
The AAGC is focused on four priority areas, namely, development projects, quality infrastructure and institutional connectivity, skill development and capacity building, and people-to-people cooperation. The objective of the AAGC is to boost trade, development, and investment in Africa. In addition, the program would expedite infrastructure and connectivity projects to align with the development priorities of Africa and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG).
The AAGC serves as the point of intersection between the philosophies of both leaders. Prime Minister Modi’s Sab ka Saath, Sab ka Vikas – together with all, development for all and his policy of Security and Growth for All (SAGAR) significantly complement Prime Minister Abe’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy and his proposed “arch of freedom and prosperity”. In addition, Japan’s emphasis on freedom and openness aims to serve as an alternative to China’s opaque leadership. India has also been opposed to the BRI due to its lack of transparency, particularly with the use of the Kashmir region by China for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
The AAGC also converges with the current African plan for the transformation of the continent in the next 50 years, the Agenda 2063. This plan seeks to fast-track the implementation of past and existing continental policies to achieve growth and sustainable development. The AAGC serves as a significant platform to expedite these goals and improve relations between Asia and Africa against the backdrop of progress, transparency, and growth.
Challenges
Looking at the AAGC conceptually, the India-Japan partnership in Africa seems to be a natural one, with one country’s strengths complementing the other to enhance economic cooperation with African states. India has long cultivated significant people-to-people and business links across the continent, while Japan continues to offer the capital and technological knowledge needed to drive economic and infrastructural development in the continent. However, since its inception, the AAGC has not been able to make significant strides in Africa.
Ahead of Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Japan in 2018, then Indian Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale indicated that while India and Japan were exploring collaboration on a handful of economic projects in Africa with some “considerable progress”, the AAGC proper was still very much in the development and discussion phase. This illustrates that the program has been hampered by the lack of attention given from both sides.
What serves as the most critical issue that hinders the maximization of the AAGC lies on the geopolitical weight of the BRI. The BRI is more developed compared to the AAGC as the former has achieved a head-start in cementing economic and political relations with states in Africa. These developments have significantly taken the spotlight away from the rising AAGC.
Way Forward
The challenges mentioned above are important to understand why the AAGC was not able to exponentially move forward since its conceptualization. However, given the current circumstances and the downward turn of the BRI due to the Coronavirus pandemic, the AAGC might be able to break in and serve as a more legitimate and transparent alternative to the African states at a time when they have been reconsidering their engagements with China.
India and Japan must revive the AAGC now before it is too late to capitalize on the uncertainty that clouds China-Africa relations. The time is now ripe for both states to significantly enhance the program and deliver effective results. The AAGC is indeed going to be an effective platform for a rules-based and open level of development between Asia and Africa. All that is needed is proper timing, and the time now is perfect for its ascension.
