29 June 2020, NIICE Commentary 5443
Dr. Aradhana Talwar
The apocalyptic stand-off between the two Asian giants set off ripples in global politics and once again brought to fore the reassessment of China’s bellicosity and foreign policy actions. Commonly understood, there is always an organic link between a country’s national goals and foreign policy decisions. In case of China, it is apparent that its core national objectives that are adduced while taking any foreign policy decisions revolve around the concepts of sovereignty and stability. These terms explain everything why China does what it does. As simple as it may sound, sovereignty and stability are coloured with historical narratives in China and over the years, have become overly complex in its foreign policy arena. For instance, the country’s understanding of sovereignty does not only imply freedom from external forces but also return of territories to China over which it has no jurisdiction. Moreover, China’s perception of sovereignty is also expanded to encompass the territorial disputes with neighbouring countries that has, most of the times, led to strain in its bilateral relations. Moreover, for China’s leadership, any form of disturbance or a slight change in the country’s periphery and surroundings is a threat to its core that underlies the factor of stability in its foreign policy behavior. In the light of this, the recent stand-off between India and China highlights the elements of revisionism and conservativeness in the latter’s strategic and foreign-policy behaviour.
The 15 June 2020 standoff between the two nations took place at multiple locations on the disputed India-China border. The timing of the standoff is a predictable one. The immediate and obvious reasons have been India’s bolstering of defence infrastructure near the border areas and rightly so, which has certainly not been to the liking of China’s political leadership. At regional and international level, India’s growing stature and manifestation of its leadership capabilities on certain pressing global issues such as the COVID-19 crisis have been major irritants to China’s policy-makers. Moreover, diplomatic and economic isolation of China by major powers in international arena due to disastrous consequences of the pandemic, which originated in Wuhan, has severely impacted its image and prestige as a responsible global power. These regional and international factors have brought the political leadership of Xi Jinping under severe stress.
Further, the domestic politics of China cannot be ignored in playing a significant role in its muscle flexing in and around the region. The Coronavirus has severely impacted the Chinese economy as is visible from its major slowdown that has occurred after decades. To avoid any threat to the regime’s stability under the current circumstances, Chinese leadership under Xi Jinping is leveraging its position as a global power, although not a benevolent one, by hectoring its neighbours. For instance, China’s way of using military aggression against India at the border to acquiesce to the former’s understanding of LAC is testimony to the fact. China’s recent role as an aggressor at the borders with India is a quintessential act from its past strategic and foreign policy behavior of escalating tensions in the first place. The testing of power transition in China to a global superpower and nearing the centenary celebrations of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) along with a conservative and hyper-nationalist regime have made sovereignty and stability as top priority national goals, which are clearly stated in the country’s White Paper also known as China’s National Defense in New Era, 2019.
India has taken many commendable steps to counter growing Chinese arrogance and rightly so as sovereignty and safeguarding territorial borders are sacrosanct to our democratic foundation and ethos too. Indian army has shown tremendous bravery and has not buckled thereby showcasing our military clout to the dragon. The supreme sacrifice of our soldiers in the recent standoff and the befitting response by them have sent across strong message that Indian army is not to be messed with. The ongoing military level talks highlight the fact that India has and will always strive for peace in its neighbourhood and believes in “peaceful co-existence” thereby making it a responsible global power.
The current debates and discussions among Indian policy-makers and academia centre around the various options that India should explore at present while dealing with China in the post 15 June standoff situation. China’s strategic and foreign policy charade of sending mixed and confusing signals is all too known now. India should continue diplomatic ways of dealing with China to de-escalate the tensions at the border and certainly should conduct dialogue with a position of strength. Indian policy-makers should explore options beyond LAC to counter China’s ‘Wolf Warrior Diplomacy.’ One possible and obvious step is to strengthen bilateral ties with the US and the West, but the question remains will the former be a viable partner considering its inward-looking foreign policy approach?
China believes in playing on a country’s weakness and has time and again used rhetoric such as “Salami Slicing” and encirclement of India. To counter China’s growing military and maritime posturing in the long-term, the best possible option for India will be to prioritize strengthening our own defence particularly maritime capabilities in the larger game of geo-politics and strategic field. Given the fact that Indian Ocean Region is important to Xi Jinping’s pet project Maritime Silk Route initiative under Belt Road Initiative (BRI), PM Modi’s Indo-Pacific Ocean Initiative of 2019 assumes greater significance in the post COVID-19 world order. Briefly, Indo-Pacific Ocean Initiative emphasizes developing India’s maritime diplomacy in Indian Ocean Region and channelizing resources to further build-up naval capabilities of our blue-water navy on its way of becoming a global superpower. India should use this policy to strengthen the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) that also consists of the US, Australia and Japan to counter China’s dominance in the region. India should also play an active role in the various sub-regional groupings in the region focusing on economic and defence ties. To further China’s isolation diplomatically, India should turn the anti-China sentiments to our advantage and to strengthen bilateral ties with countries that are under the fear of possible debt and high costs under China’s BRI. The need of the hour is reassessment of India’s China policy and ink it with a bit bolder and out-of-the-box approach.
