28 May 2020, NIICE Commentary 4889
Anil Trigunayat
Fighting and contestation never cease to exist. We fight against others, be at the individual, societal or national level or for that matter against the disease and pandemic. We fight in the boardrooms and we fight in the battle ground. And all of us are working hard to decimate our own habitat while refusing to realise the problem and consequences of the climate change. Some are hoping that a new planet akin to mother earth will be found and we all will probably be transported there by the likes of Elon Musk to start afresh. One would rationally think when something as invisible as Corona hits the world and exposes the vulnerabilities of the mightiest advanced nations and the developing countries alike, at least we shall begin to think of ceasing conflicts and our fight against our own environment. Is man the rational animal or can he be entrusted to make reasonable choices while indulging in an animal behaviour? Apparently not. The calls for ceasing hostilities by United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres fell on deaf ears.
There are several hotspots and new ones are being created every day. Non-state actors and terrorist groups are having a field day while States are behaving in a more irrational manner even in this unprecedented crisis which has infected over 5 million people and taken a huge toll mostly in powerful western countries which were supposed to have the best available facilities. On the other hand, some designated extremist groups like Hezbollah and Hamas are providing humanitarian assistance including their own medics and hospitals to fight the virus thereby carving out sympathetic space in the society. In any case the myth is broken and Corona has become the biggest leveller as everyone is groping in the dark. Leaders tend to underplay and are often accused of fudging numbers and churn out spreadsheets of stimulus packages difficult to decipher by the ordinary mortals. They even boast of taking unproven drugs and the people in another continent may follow and die. Stimulus creates hope but everyone is unhappy except the media and the protagonists of oratory skills. It makes a great news when a young girl ferries her sick father for over 1200 kms but it does not shame us as we remain in mental lock down too.
On the international front there is no dearth of irresponsible leadership. Yemen is facing the biggest humanitarian disaster consequent to an unfinished and unwinnable war between Iran backed Houthis and Saudi led Sunni coalition. Myriad external players continue to compete for their geopolitical and geo-economically objectives in the war-torn Libya and Syria. Trump’s Deal of the Century failed to take off as Palestinians rejected it. Netanyahu having signed it wants to use the historic opportunity to annex the parts of West Bank. Arab Spring 2.0 is festering changes in Iraq, Algeria, Lebanon and Sudan. Under-currents of social unrest could destabilise regimes in due course while US-Iran rivalry continues with growing intensity. COVID-19 has not stopped the Americans from trying to remove Maduro in Venezuela in a clandestine operation gone wrong. But the mother of all problems is the US-China contestation and Cold War 2.0 with the US opening all fronts from Tibet to Uighurs in Xinxiang to Taiwan and Hong Kong, let alone the already worsening Corona and Trade Wars. Indo-Pacific and QUAD matrix became more sharpened. China responds by being more aggressive through its “Wolf Diplomacy” to its own detriment.
It is followed by concentration of its Peoples’ Liberation Army units and breach of border protocols across the Line of Actual Control with India in violation of the famous “Wuhan spirit”. Pakistan upped its anti-India cross-border terrorist activities along the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir. Even an emboldened Nepal engages in “cartographic aggression” against India. Multilateral institutions like the WHO, WTO and UN itself are being relegated to irrelevance unless they serve the interests of the US or any other major power. The African continent, that has its own unstable polity, regimes and violent conflicts including terrorist activities by Al Qaeda, Al Shabab and ISIS, is hoping to follow its laudable objective of “Silencing the Guns” in 2020. But the adverse impact of COVID-19 will most likely derail many AU (African Union) wide social cohesion and integration projects like the AfCFTA (African Continental Free Trade Agreement) . Hopefully some of these will be resolved or mitigated through the diplomatic demarche.
Climate Change is a reality and as we suffer from the brunt of this unprecedented pandemic the world is facing the fury of the nature almost everywhere compounding the human predicament. Hence, the logical voices for addressing the climate change issues upfront are gaining ground especially from those who feel the impact but can’t really do much about it. The two biggest polluters and most powerful economies China and the US are in an internecine war as their economies face the worst recession. As such the US President Trump had opted out of the Climate Change Treaty, unpredictable international disorder is underway. Disruption is the key word in global dynamic. As the global priority is fixated on handling hunger, health and hygiene the habitat and Going Green objectives will get relegated farther because revival of economy, exports and employment will take precedence over it. Global recession is underway. For the first time, the Chinese CPC did not venture into a prospective GDP target which is a clear indicator of the shape of things to come. This also means that in the upcoming economic order uncertainty will be the key word. Self-reliance and inward looking , protectionist policies combined with “I or me first “ will define the contours of international engagement and cooperation where “Greenification” may not find many takers in the near term even if the renewable energy technologies and solar power should increasingly be the option of least resistance as it is becoming increasingly cheaper and competitive. Newer global resolve and renewed emphasis on capturing the bold message from the fatigued “Mother Nature” is loud and clear today more than ever before. Our survival will depend on whether we hear it or not. To do something about it like the fight against the virus, commands international solidarity and concerted global action and resolve that, but unfortunately has been in short supply.
