6 May 2020, NIICE Commentary 4488
Naseer Ahmad Bhat & Dr. Rajeesh C Sarngadharan
Ever since the February US-Taliban Framework, ‘Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan’ was developed, Ashraf Ghani, the leader of the Afghan Government, has not come to terms with his rival, the Chief Executive of the previous government, Abdullah Abdullah. Ghani has also not been able to implement the agreement reached with the Afghan Taliban amidst peace talks, wherein he promised the release of 1500 Taliban prisoners. The US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has threatened a USD 1 Billion cut in aid if Afghanistan was unable to resolve the deadlock, and the US will continue the withdrawal of its troop from the country as per the US-Taliban peace deal. In addition, the spread of COVID-19 seems to have fast-forwarded the events in Afghanistan. The US President Donald Trump has repeatedly complained, according to some reports, that US troops are vulnerable in Afghanistan in the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic. Having been a war-torn country for decades, Afghanistan is quite vulnerable to the pandemic. The devil on the wall was painted by the Afghan Minister of Public Health, Ferozuddin Feroz, when he claimed that because Afghanistan has poor health infrastructure and investment, the infections are underreported, COVID-19 might affect half the country’s population and claim as high as 100,000 Afghan lives.
President Trump’s insistence on troop withdrawal comes after the concern expressed in the statement given by Gen. Austin S. Miller in March, which said that in the backdrop of the pandemic, it will not be possible to go as per the agreed schedule with Taliban. COVID-19 might complicate the drawdown of the troops as agreed in the Peace Agreement with Taliban. The US has 12,000 troops situated in Afghanistan, and this was to be watered down to 8,600, as per the agreed terms. NATO and other coalition forces, who also have a combined 8,700 troops present in Afghanistan, were to draw them down by a commensurate number.
With Donald Trump’s takeover after the presidency of Barak Obama, the US has reneged from many international commitments including the famous Paris Agreement on climate change, and has seen reversal of Obama’s famous TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) Policy. The sheen and veneer of the US as the sole global leader has taken a beating. The fear in the awaited transformations in a post-COVID-19 world order is that there is no power in the world big enough to lead and build global consensus. The weight that the US carried after World War-II is now lacking in global affairs. The trends of the past decade have thrown many challenges for a liberal world order. There are growing trends of illiberal democracies, as argued by Fareed Zakaria. The rise of Authoritarian and Chauvinistic trends in global politics have diluted the prospects for consensus-building. The post-COVID-19 world order comes with more surveillance and lesser liberty for citizens. The famous Social Contract seems to be skewing towards State. China doesn’t have the capacity to lead the world because of its own crises, added on by the atmosphere of mistrust towards it. The world right now is in the midst of a global leadership crises. It is within this context that Afghanistan poses serious challenges for the world. The goal to bring democracy and peace to Afghanistan through intervention has failed, and there is no bigger power to deal with it after US withdrawal.
India has invested heavily in Afghan development. The investments in infrastructure have totalled to USD 2 billion since 2001. This amount is the largest that India has contributed to any country in aid. India has always backed successive Afghan Governments, particularly the Ashraf Ghani Government, after its takeover from Hamid Karzai. Post-Peace deal, Afghanistan has given more leverage to Taliban to act as the main player; the one dictating the terms. With negligible investments and dealings with Taliban, the Indian government will find it very difficult to deal with the situation after COVID-19, and when the US troops will wind up. According to Kabir Taneja, a Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, “India’s Afghan outreach, that of development aid, people to people contact and so on, relied on the security cover provided by the US and the allies. With that gone, the policies of New Delhi will need a serious re-visit”. The earlier position of India on being averted to talking to terrorists has to be given up in order to engage with the Post-COVID and Post-Peace deal Afghanistan. Because of the vacuum created, India, along with other nations would have to look for other prospects to engage and build new relationships with Afghanistan.
SAARC may play an important role in the coming years. India has continued working with neighbouring nations after the outbreak of COVID-19, and has even sent medical teams to help nations like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Afghanistan. India has put much onus on collective effort among neighbouring nations, rather than working in silos to fight the pandemic. This approach is in sharp contrast to the one employed by the European nations, and particularly by the US – which has continued its rant of ‘nation-first’, and believes in de-globalisation. Of course, China is a big challenge resting on a huge stockpile of Foreign Exchange. It is investing heavily in developing and under-developed nations, and is the largest Foreign Investor in Afghanistan. The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has plans to build a natural gas pipeline from Xinjiang to Turkmenistan through Northern Afghanistan. With China’s proximity to Pakistan and its close relationship with non-state players, China might have a better leverage with Taliban than India will. Afghanistan’s closeness to the Chinese Xinjiang Province is the main reason why it attracts China’s investments in the country.
According to Hekmatullah Azmay, Deputy Director at Centre for Conflict and Peace Studies in Kabul, despite India’s investments in Afghanistan, it needs to be seen whether Taliban will be open to talks with India. There are many doubts. Analysts further argue that over the years, India has not built itself as important enough in order to be taken seriously in the Political affairs of the country, and hence, was not considered an important player in the U.S-Taliban talks despite its investments. There is quite some uncertainty about the future of Afghanistan, and about India’s role in the emerging politics of the tumultuous nation. However, there are significant expectations from two global powers in this context – the US, and China.
