20 April 2020, NIICE Commentary 4169
Anil Trigunayat
West Asia is India’s strategic extended neighbourhood. No wonder India’s policy with respect to the region especially the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain) has acquired a new depth and has become truly multi-dimensional in the last six years. Prime Minister Narendra Modi galvanized it by creating an exceptional bonhomie and personalised style at the highest level of the leadership. The top level interactions and visits have multiplied enriching the ties further. Results have been obvious with important deliverables in the form of fresh investment commitments, repatriation and extradition of wanted criminals, crucial intelligence and counter terrorism cooperation, maritime security and defence cooperation, deepened engagement in energy security and strategic reserves, diaspora welfare and expansion in businesses that have a multiplier effect on the bilateral relationship. It is fair to say that India’s West Asia Policy has become a remarkable success story.
Diaspora Dividend could be a strategic advantage for any country for several criticalities, but then the sending state has to be ever so responsive to their genuine needs. India has done that by several means, digital outreach and institutional mechanisms, and has accorded an unprecedented priority. It has also emerged as a quick and unusual responder in crisis situations not only for her own people but those from the region and elsewhere. In this matrix of cooperation presence, role and welfare of over 8 million strong Indian work-force, in the GCC comprising of the finest professionals, blue collar workers and enterprising businesses stands crucial. They have been significant to the growth story of their host countries and are well liked and respected for their contributions and disciplined approach and are preferred over other expatriates. They are equally important for Indian development. They have been remitting over USD 40 billion back home annually and this money normally stays put for longer periods in the country and contributes over 10 percent of India’s foreign exchange reserves.
COVID-19 pandemic has not spared the gulf countries either and has caused much greater challenges for the economies of the Gulf countries who are highly dependent on the revenue from the hydrocarbons. Demand contraction and low oil prices have negatively impacted their revenue generation and consequent economic activity, growth and employment. It is estimated that demand for oil has been reduced by 25 percent to 30 percent which combined with low oil prices further accentuated by the glut and OPEC-Russia-US competition, will have long term impact and challenges. The debt to GDP ratio and fiscal deficits will be unprecedented. This has been further compounded by the Coronavirus which has shut down industries, logistics and paralysed aviation to a great extent. United Arab Emirates (UAE) had to postpone its long awaited Expo 2020. Across the board, adverse impact is expected to dent the economies of the gulf nations much after this pandemic is gone. International Monetary Fund has forecast a negative growth of – 3.9 percent for the GCC countries in 2020 even though it has projected an early and robust rebound in 2021. But in the interim period, the employment opportunities will be far smaller especially as the gulf economies will be forced to restructure their economic models at least in the short and medium term. There might be greater focus to localise their labour requirements.
In fact, on the pro rata population basis, the incidence of COVID-19 in the Gulf countries is far higher and is continuing to increase each passing day straining the healthcare systems . The expat blue collar workers have also become its victims. As such under the “Kafala system” they live in crowded housing and hence social distancing is not that easy to maintain and is a major source of contagion despite all the efforts being made by the host countries, not only to contain the community spread but also to provide them best possible treatment. Hundreds have been infected and died. Job losses and retrenchment have begun which will have a direct impact on India since they constitute the largest percentage of expat work force in almost all countries. The unemployed and surplus manpower have no option but to return to India. Many already did and even carried the virus with them. In early weeks, India even evacuated large number of Indians from several countries including highly infested Iran. India introduced stringent early measures by closing borders, flights and lockdown that has now been extended until May 3.
In the wake of the pandemic PM Modi took to virtual bilateral and multilateral Summits including SAARC and G20 to underscore the need for global cooperation, strategy and solidarity to fight COVID-19. He also spoke to all the leaders of the GCC and several Arab leaders to discuss the COVID-19 impact and expressed solidarity with them while offering all possible assistance to combat the pandemic. India has already sent its rapid response medical teams and equipment and medicines to Kuwait and Bahrain and is ready to assist others as well when required. Leaders of all the countries personally assured Prime Minister Modi regarding the security and welfare of the Indian nationals living and working in their countries.
Recently, however, there was a news in the UAE media about the advisory of UAE government to the labour providing countries to accept their citizens who have either been stranded, become unemployed or who wanted to return. UAE Ambassador to India said that a Note Verbale had been sent to all countries including India and that UAE will assist in repatriation of all such cases after testing and ensuring that they are not COVID-19 positive. Saudis have also been keen to send non-essential expatriates. In Qatar, where the rate of infections has increased manifold, the Indian Ambassador in an article appreciated the Qatar government for providing treatment free of cost to all even if their work permits or health cards are not valid. Likewise, in the locked down industrial area supply of food packets by civil society groups has been appreciated. Indian Doctors Club and Associations in these countries have come forward to assist the community. Similarly, the gulf countries have relaxed visa norms and waived penalties for any overstay involved due to Corona emergency. But certain outcomes in such unprecedented crisis are inevitable.
Indian citizens are India’s responsibility and those desirous may be brought back to the extent possible after the travel restrictions have been removed as reportedly indicated by Indian Minister of State for External Affairs. Moreover, the Supreme Court had also ruled likewise. Indians have been advised not to panic and stay in touch with Indian embassies. Mass repatriation of millions is neither practical nor feasible but India would render all possible assistance to its citizens wherever they are in the world and those wanting to return will come back even though it will have its own ramifications and this has been proved time and again.
