Elephant’s Kabul Puzzle

Elephant’s Kabul Puzzle

Elephant’s Kabul Puzzle

14 October 2025, NIICE Commentary 11818
Sivakumar M V & Subrat Kumar Ratha

New Delhi, a few days back, received an official delegation from the Taliban government led by the Acting Foreign Minister of Afghanistan. Interestingly, this has been the first official tour of the Taliban government to India since the formation of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan in 2021. From multiple insights, this visit seems to track the emerging dynamics in Indo-Afghan relations, providing the impetus to dialogue diplomacy between the two cultural-cum- civilisational entities. In particular, the Taliban's visit to India, no matter what they had destined for, has been a counter reaction to two major incidents – firstly, the well-articulated Operation Sindoor against the Pak-based terror structure, and secondly, the miscalculated tariff imposition of the Trump Administration against India. This timely visit of the Taliban delegation to India would surely impact India’s national interest in South Asia and foster India’s multilateralism and strategic autonomy.

New Delhi, Kabul, and Mutual Expectations 

The official visit of the Taliban carries expectations, an indomitable aspiration to be fulfilled by the gracious involvement of New Delhi. Such aspirations have been obvious through the age-old relations between India and Afghanistan, irrespective of political variations in New Delhi. India’s commitment to Afghanistan has been time-tested, humanitarian, and constructive. Even after the bilateral meeting with India’s External Affairs Minister, the government agreed to provide ambulances to improve the healthcare facilities in Afghanistan. Governed by the principle of non-reciprocity, India’s Afghanistan Policy seemed unhindered by the geopolitical tension posed by the foreign powers in Afghanistan and the rapid outbreak of anti-India sentiment of the sandwiched country between India and Afghanistan. 

Contextually, the current visit shows the Taliban’s thirst for recognition by India and in return, India is supposed to confirm Afghanistan’s commitment to peace and erasing anti-India activities through the Afghan land. Through the press conference, the Acting Foreign Minister of Afghanistan claimed the non-use of Afghan land against India and other countries, indicating Afghanistan’s stand against terrorism. Presumably, this commitment has been backed by certain expectations from India, which alters the non-reciprocal principle with mutual benefits. From the beginning, India supported the development of Afghan-owned and Afghan-led countries without any substantial interference from outsiders. A stable Afghanistan suits India’s prolonged involvement in Afghanistan’s development graph. 

Pakistan Factor and Enemy’s Enemy 

Afghanistan’s Durand Line and India’s Kashmir have been two common bleeding grounds perpetuated by Pakistan. Although Afghanistan has been hesitant to recognise the Durand Line, India, on the other hand, claims its full sovereignty over Kashmir, including the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). As history shows, the fate of Afghan-Pak closeness, especially during the Soviet and later in the post 9/11 American invasion, deteriorated after the formation of the Taliban government. In addition, such deterioration reveals Afghanistan’s realisation of the harmful effect of Pak-based fundamental groups to initiate instability in Afghanistan. India, on the other hand, has been experiencing the terror activities led by Pakistan and its affiliated terror outfits, making India reluctant to pursue a stable course of development. Despite such challenges, after the rise of the Modi government, India’s position against terrorism has improved substantially.

Recently, India conducted Operation Sindoor against Pakistan’s terror structure, as a response to the heinous Pahalgam attack, to restore India’s commitment against terrorism and defence capability. As a friendly gesture, Afghanistan extended support to India against Pakistan, narrating that India's action was justified to restore sovereignty. Unlike the previous decade, the Taliban government stands with the development of Afghanistan without any significant backup from the Pakistani political establishment, realising that all the problems of Afghanistan, for the last four decades, have been Pakistan’s national interest. However, the rapid cutoff of links between the Taliban and their all-weather friend, Pakistan, would be a strategic success for India.        

Trump Tension 

Guided by hyper nationalism, American President Donald Trump pushed India into a most complex situation where multilateralism would be the only solution. The imposition of an unethical and unfair tariff on Indian supplies turns India’s eyes to other competitors, paving the India’s alignment with China and Russia to counter American hegemony on the global trade chain. For Afghanistan, Trump’s desire to regain Bagram airbase has made the Taliban regime furious and dashed Trump's ambition with the refusal of the Taliban regime to avoid American presence in Afghanistan. In addition, India has also voiced support for Afghanistan to keep the Afghan land free from any military presence. As profound propagators of mutual goodwill and mutual respect, India and China have agreed to extend support for Afghanistan’s authority over Bagram airbase. Historically, Afghanistan had experience with foreign powers and their systematic interference in the internal development of Afghanistan and later committed mistakes leading to the lasting instability in Afghanistan. Therefore, from the broader South Asian perspective, the American military presence at Bagram airbase would surely hamper the regional stability. Through this visit, India’s aspiration from Afghanistan would be to free the region from foreign military presence.

India’s Connectivity Ambition   

As a geographically detached entity, India-Afghan relations have been non-territorial. Although Pakistan distorted the 106-kilometre border between India and Afghanistan through illegal occupation, the fragrance of Indo-Afghan relations expanded over the decades. India has depended on Pakistan, especially the Bagha-Attari transit point, unlike China and Pakistan. Due to constant conflict and Pakistan’s reluctance to provide a transit route for Indian products, India has been searching for an alternate route to enhance India’s trade exposure with Afghanistan. 

With this recent visit, India expects to prepare a detailed blueprint for constructing and operationalising the historic Chabahar Port in Iran under the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). The route has been designed to minimise the dependency on the land route and enhance India’s maritime access to Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Russia through Iran. Apart from the peace and stability in Afghanistan and the humanitarian support, India must take the Chabahar Port seriously. The current visit would shed light on India’s trade exposure with Afghanistan.        

Apart from the issues identified, the current visit of the official delegation of the Taliban government to India has been strategically crucial for mutual development and goodwill. With the growing expansion of the Chinese presence in the region, the visit could be expected to be a bright initiative to deepen diplomatic relations between the countries and counter China’s strategic depth. Moreover, the visit, in general, would mark a step towards the international legitimacy of Afghanistan. As the Afghan Acting Foreign Minister assured the non-usage of Afghan land for anti-India activities, India, in return, has been committed to ensuring the development of Afghanistan through aid, advice, and affection.  

Sivakumar M V is the Director & Associate Professor, Department of International Relations, Capital Center, Central University of Kerala, Trivandrum & Subrat Kumar Ratha is a Doctoral Candidate at the Department of International Relations and Politics, Central University of Kerala, India.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the Authors. 

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