17 June 2025, NIICE Commentary 11293
Mridul Jha
In February 2025, the Cook Islands signed multiple agreements across trade, investment, renewable energy, infrastructure, telecommunications, and economy with China, including the comprehensive partnership agreement action plan. Christopher Luxon, Prime Minister of New Zealand, said that despite the two countries' close constitutional relationship, New Zealand was not only properly consulted on the agreements, but there was also a lack of transparency on the context of the agreements, causing concerns for New Zealand and for the people of the Cook Islands. Before signing the agreement, New Zealand requested that the Cook Islands share the context for consultation, but they were met with a cold shoulder. Prime Minister of the Cook Islands, Mark Brown, was defiant in signing the agreements, stating that the decisions are made keeping in mind the long-term interests of the Cook Islands and need not be consulted with Wellington since it does not involve any defence or security areas. This not only caused a rift between the two close countries but also highlighted the growing tensions in the region.
The Cook Islands, a group of 15 small islands, is a self-governing country in Free Association with New Zealand since 1965. This allows the Cook Islanders to have New Zealand passports, which allow them to live, work and access the healthcare of New Zealand. Those Islanders who have continuously stayed in New Zealand for at least one year have the right to contest and vote in the elections and referendums. Additionally, New Zealand provides budgetary support and commits to defend the island nation and also helps in the Defence and Foreign Affairs areas. Though permitted to have an independent foreign policy, the Cook Islands needs to consult New Zealand on security, foreign and defence issues.
Context of Agreement
An agreement signed between the Cook Islands and China outlines numerous areas where the two countries will improve cooperation, which includes education, the economy, infrastructure, fisheries, disaster management and seabed mining. Though there has been no mention of security issues in the deal, cooperation in the area of hydrography and geospatial research has direct military applications, which is a sign of concern for New Zealand.
As per the strategic partnership document released, there would be more funding from China for Infrastructure projects and educational scholarships. China also intends to support the Cook Islands in its quest for membership of various international organisations, which New Zealand blatantly refuses. It also intends to provide the Cook Islands with a new inter-island vessel, along with expecting the Cook Islands to provide preferential treatment to it at regional meetings of Pacific Nations.
As part of the agreement, both countries are expected to work in the area of deep-sea mining, which, according to PM Mark Brown, could be a game changer for the Cook Islands in terms of economic wealth. The Cook Islands Seabed's Minerals Authority estimates there are 12 billion wet tonnes of polymetallic nodules in their waters. Harvesting these nodules can help in the transition from fossil fuels; however, it carries its own set of challenges. Since the impact of deep-sea mining is still unknown, it is widely believed that there should be a pause on these activities until there is adequate evidence of the mining on marine life. However, it is less likely to be paused since the Cook Islands in 2022 gave out three licences to companies to start exploring the possibility of deep-sea mining.
New Zealand’s concern
Despite sharing a close constitutional relationship, New Zealand felt betrayed and criticised the Cook Islands for a lack of transparency and not consulting before signing the agreements. This criticism is partly due to the fact that China, in recent years, has been more aggressive than its Western counterparts in terms of influencing smaller Pacific nations. Due to China’s increasing presence in the Pacific region, which is predominantly via cheap loans, it has not only caused concern for New Zealand but also for its Western Allies. The US, New Zealand and Australia have been pushing China’s growing influence in the region by signing agreements with nations like Tuvalu and Nauru and with the recent agreements signed by the Cook Islands, West needs to be careful in its approach in dealing with the small Pacific nation.
Moreover, New Zealand is concerned about the Cook Islands' push for autonomy, including a proposal to issue a separate passport for Cook Islanders. In December 2024, the Cook Islands, which is in Free Association with New Zealand, made a proposal to introduce a separate passport while still holding New Zealand citizenship. Prime Minister of the Cook Islands, Mark Brown, proposed the new passport, which would recognise the people of the Cook Islands. Since the Cook Islands are in free association, which allows them to live, work and access healthcare in New Zealand, this contradicted the agreement, which received a strong reaction from New Zealand.
New Zealand rejected the proposal to introduce a new passport and explicitly stated that the new passport would only be possible if the Cook Islands decide to become fully independent. This would mean that Cook Islanders would not have access to healthcare, amongst other benefits. Cook Islanders criticised their own government and showed concerns over access to services, including the right to healthcare in New Zealand, if such a move is implemented. After a series of negotiations between the two countries, Prime Minister Mark Brown scrapped the decision and said that any decision that affects their relationship with New Zealand would not be implemented.
China’s Interest in the Cook Islands
Both countries, as part of the agreement, are expected to cooperate in the Seabed minerals sector, which is an untapped mineral resource. As per the Cook Islands Seabed Authority, there are 6.7 billion tonnes of mineral-rich nodules on its sea floor, which could yield 20 million metric tons of cobalt along with significant amounts of nickel, copper, manganese, iron and rare earth elements needed for tech products and the clean energy transition.
Though China, which dominates the supply of these materials, has not yet been granted licenses for deep-sea mining in Cook Islands waters, it is expected that the signed agreements will provide an exception to China in carrying out these activities. In addition, China has agreed to support the Cook Islands in multilateral forums and likewise expects the Cook Islands to support it as well. With its economic weight and diplomatic power, China has been pushing aggressively to reduce the influence of the US and its allies and give itself access to mineral resources, fisheries and global stature.
Conclusion
As China increases its influence through economic weight, the Cook Islands could find itself in a position of obligations that perfectly align with China’s interests and not its allies, which completely changes the status quo in the region. Many Pacific Islanders view New Zealand, along with Australia, as a big brother who exerts their influence in the decision-making process and believes that China is an opportunity rather than a threat to diversify its economy and strengthen its relations with like-minded countries. Despite West’s push, especially by the US, China has been able to influence the smaller Pacific nations either through cheap loans for infrastructure or through cooperation in areas like tourism, trade, etc. If China poses a threat, it is a threat to Australian and New Zealand hegemony in the South Pacific.
Mridul Jha is a Consultant based in India.
