17 April 2025, NIICE Commentary 10261
Palash Sharma
The Pakistani state is struggling to manage its debt-ridden economy. Its security establishment is struggling with a worsening security situation due to various insurgencies led by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the Pashtun areas of Balochistan, and by the Baloch separatists in the Baloch belt, which are causing substantial casualties to its armed forces, especially to the Pakistani Army. Militant groups ,including Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, Islamic State of Khorasan Province, Al-Qaeda, the Balochistan Liberation Army and their affiliate,s carried out suicide bombings and other attacks against security personnel that killed at least 757 people and caused hundreds of injuries, mostly to civilians, during the past year. To unwind this situation,n Pakistan’s top leadership has approved the launch of a new military operation in June 2024 named ‘Azms-e-Istehkam’, meaning ‘Resolve for Stability’ in Urdu, aimed at quelling a surge in violence. In a political and religious gathering held on February 15 in Peshawar, led by Ali Amin Gandapur, the chief minister of Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, called for formal government-level negotiations with the Taliban to address rising security concerns.
In order to understand this conflict comprehensively, we have to go back into history and look at the origins of TTP, which is said to be formed in December 2007, but according to some tribes in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) - TTP was started in 2004 due to Pakistan Army’s operations in Waziristan (Pakistani province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) due to the pressure of United States. But the real impetus for its genesis was the Pakistan Army’s attack on Islamabad’s Lal Masjid in July 2007, in which hundreds of tribal students were killed that resulting in a poignant outburst in the tribal area, which ultimately resulted in a suicide bombing killing various government, military and civilian targets. In 2008, TTP took responsibility for 18 suicide bombings in which more than a thousand people were killed. Interestingly, 80% of the suicide bombers were from the Waziristan region. Therefore, the creation of TTP was a collective effort of more than 40 representatives from all seven agencies of the tribal areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and in this meeting, the representatives selected Baitullah Mehsud as their “Amir”. In 2008, Baitullah was named one of the world’s 100 most influential figures of the year by Time magazine. Their most infamous attack was on 16 December 2014, when they attacked the Army Public School in Peshawar and killed more than 150 people, including 132 children. To counter these challenges posed by TTP Pakistani Army launched various operations against the TTP, such as Operation Rahe-e-Rast (2009), Rah-e-Nijat (2009), Zarb-e-Azb (2014) and Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad (2017), along with various peace deals, in the last was Malakand Accord in the year 2009. These efforts made by the Army were able to significantly retrench the attacks of TTP. Since the year 2018 saw the least number of attacks carried out by TTP.
In the year 2020, TTP saw various mergers, including the Hakimullah Mehsud Group under Mukhlis Yar and the Usman Saifullah Kurd group of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, who pledged allegiance to Noor Wali Mehsud, the TTP amir. In August 2020, the TTP announced that Jamaat-ul-Ahrar and Hizbul Ahrar had formally rejoined it. After this consolidation in 2020, their activities have increased significantly. In 2021, at least 12 people, including nine Chinese engineers and two Frontier Corps personnel, died, and several others were injured in the bus attack near the Dasu hydropower plant in the Upper Kohistan district of Khyber. And now they have unfurled their attacks to even cities like Islamabad and Karachi outside their traditionally considered turf. The TTP now has a more structured central command, an expanded footprint through mergers with smaller groups, and is equipped with U.S. weapons left behind during the withdrawal.
The TTP’s long-term goal is to establish an Islamic regime in Pakistan, a society free of social crimes as defined by them. The underlying ideology of the various TTP groups, according to Khan Idris, is Salafism, taking diverse elements that suited it from both Pashtunwali and Salafi Islam. But this resurgence of TTP is carrying various implications for the Pakistani state since there has been a surge in violence & casualties from 2021 to 202,4, according to the Pakistan Security Report, 2024, published by Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies (PIPS). Additionally, the Issue of the Durand Line remains a challenge for counter-terrorism efforts, allowing militants to move freely between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistani efforts to fence the border have met resistance from both the TTP and the Afghan Taliban. The same issue has become a reason for friction in ties between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban leadership since Pakistan has attempted to resolve this situation through multiple avenues: diplomatic engagement through talks with the TTP facilitated by the Taliban, and also using the influence of top Deobandi clerics, but nothing has worked so far. This scuffle is also affecting the Chinese interests in Pakistan since its flagship CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) project, which has heavy Chinese investments, is also under threat from the TTP , for which China has already raised its concerns about.
Foreseeing this situation, the TTP could become a bigger threat for the whole subcontinent, including India, Bangladesh, and Nepal, etc. by collaborating with other terrorist groups. Therefore, prior to it becoming uncontrollable, the Pakistani state should take a multi-dimensional and holistic approach to counter terrorist organisations like TTP. Instead of primarily relying on the kinetic military operations, which don’t seem to be beneficial in the long run. Hence, the government should work with a bottom-up approach by working on the basic things like better governance, social justice, education, ensuring human rights, better living conditions for the people, along with improving its diplomatic, trade as well and people-to-people ties relations with Afghanistan.
Palash Sharma is a Research Intern at NIICE, and he is currently pursuing his M.A. in Defence and Strategic Studies from the Central University of Gujarat, India.
