20 May 2024 NIICE Commentary 9141
Aman Bora & Akhilesh Dwivedi
The unprecedented accident involving the Iranian leader resulting in his death has sparked concerns among geopolitical analysts regarding the already disturbed region’s future and stability. Officials have confirmed that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi passed away on 20 May 2024, in a helicopter accident close to the Azerbaijan-Iran border. Raisi, aged 63, was on a journey with Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, the governor of Iran’s East Azerbaijan region, and other officials and bodyguards. The purpose of their visit was to officially open a shared dam project. The construction of the dam was undertaken as a means to enhance the relations between Iran and Azerbaijan, which had been tense due to Azerbaijan’s strong alliance with Israel. The incident was attributed to adverse weather conditions, which also hindered rescue attempts lasting more than 12 hours.
Who’s the Next Leader?
According to the Iranian Constitution, in the event of the death of a president while in office, the first vice president assumes the position of power. Nevertheless, he would want an affirmation from the paramount authority. In Iran, there exists a dual political system in which the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has the authority to make decisions regarding all significant matters. Furthermore, the upcoming presidential elections must take place within a timeframe of 50 days. A tripartite council including the first vice president, the speaker of parliament and the head of the judiciary is tasked with conducting these elections.
Political Implications for Iran
Following the Iranian Revolution of 1979, Raisi has served diligently as a loyal member of the Islamic Republic and a notable disciple of Khamenei, the supreme leader who possesses absolute authority in the Islamic Republic. Raisi acquired the moniker “Butcher of Tehran” due to his actions. As a prosecutor, he served on the commission responsible for sentencing a large number of political detainees to death after the Iran-Iraq War in 1988.
His election as president in 2021 was also under controversy. Widespread social disorder and a crisis of legitimacy have defined Raisi’s administration. The implementation of his conservative initiatives, such as revitalising the morality police and enforcing religious limitations, resulted in extensive demonstrations and government suppression. Back in 2022, Mahsa Amini’s murder under police detention led to the Women, Life, Freedom rallies. The morality police, reviving religious limitations, resulted in the most extensive and enduring demonstrations in the Islamic Republic’s history, resulting in the deaths of nearly 500 demonstrators and hundreds more injuries.
The demise of Raisi might potentially intensify internal conflicts and contribute to the further destabilisation of the administration. Raisi’s policy programme could face disruption. A change in leadership could result in a changing set of priorities, which would in turn impact the direction of policies. The public’s response to Raisi’s passing will be significant. Public mourning and protests have the potential to impact the government’s decision-making process. The degree of cooperation or conflict among political factions will influence the policy responses. The sudden death would result in a power vacuum, which may potentially trigger internal conflicts within the Iranian administration if foreign powers attempt to interfere.
The supreme leader in Iran, Khamenei, is currently 85 years old, and the succession process is characterized by political rivalry and a lack of transparency. Raisi, a leading candidate, was supported by the hard-line faction and Ayatollah Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba. The demise of Raisi allows the younger Khamenei to inherit his father’s position, highlighting the urgency of the succession in Iran.
Regional Implications
The absence of Raisi’s foreign policy orientation will be lamented. The position he takes on local matters, discussions regarding nuclear weapons and interactions with nearby nations may undergo alterations with the appointment of a fresh leader. The demise of a notable leader could potentially influence regional dynamics, hence impacting relations with neighbouring nations and worldwide allies. Raisi, while not having direct responsibility for foreign policy, has played a crucial role in supporting the Iranian regime’s efforts to remove itself from the established international order and form partnerships with countries that are also hostile towards the West.
Since the commencement of the conflict in Gaza on 7 October 2023, Iran, led by Khamenei and Raisi, has skillfully managed to support its regional allies in countering Israel and the United States, while carefully avoiding direct confrontation with both nations. In recent months, Iran and Israel have engaged in an unprecedented exchange of direct attacks. On April 1, Israel conducted an airstrike targeting an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus, the capital of Syria. The attack resulted in the deaths of 18 individuals, including eight members of Iran’s prestigious Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran responded 12 days later by launching over 300 missiles and drones against Israel as an act of retaliation.
During Raisi’s administration, Iran has consistently acted as a supporter and financier of conflicts that oppose the interests of the United States and the Western world. This includes supplying combat drones to Russia for deployment in Ukraine and arming several regional proxies in the Middle East. During Raisi’s tenure, Iran heightened tensions with Western nations through the process of uranium enrichment and the provision of weaponry to armed factions throughout the area. His nonattendance could affect these activities.
To conclude, the demise of Raisi would have a detrimental effect on Iran’s conservative leadership, but the overall consequences are unpredictable and dependent on the decisions of the supreme leader.
The World Leader’s Reaction to Raisi’s Death
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shared on Twitter, “Deeply saddened and shocked by the tragic demise of Dr. Seyed Ebrahim Raisi, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran. His contribution to strengthening the India-Iran bilateral relationship will always be remembered. My heartfelt condolences to his family and the people of Iran. India stands with Iran in this time of sorrow.” Similarly, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif posted, “I along with the government and people of Pakistan extend our deepest condolences and sympathies to the Iranian nation on this terrible loss. May the martyr’s souls rest in heavenly peace. The great Iranian nation will overcome this tragedy with customary courage.” He added, “Pakistan will observe a day of mourning and the flag will fly at half mast as a mark of respect for President Raisi and his companions and in solidarity with brotherly Iran.”
The statement conveyed Hamas’ “deepest condolences and solidarity” to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Iranian government, and the Iranian people for “this immense loss.” It praised the deceased Iranian leaders for supporting the Palestinian cause and resistance against Israel and expressed confidence that Iran’s “deep-rooted institutions” will enable it to overcome “the repercussions of this great loss.” Similarly, the Prime Minister of Iraq Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said in a statement, “With profound sadness and deep sorrow, we received the tragic news of the passing of the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ibrahim Raisi, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, and their companions, due to the unfortunate plane crash incident in northern Iran. We extend our heartfelt condolences and sympathies to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, and to the nation of Iran, its government and people. We express our solidarity with the brotherly Iranian people and the officials of the Islamic Republic during this painful tragedy.”
The Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamin bin Hamad al-Thani remarked, “Sincere condolences to the government and people of the Islamic Republic of Iran on the death of President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdullahian, and the accompanying officials in the painful helicopter accident, asking God Almighty for mercy and forgiveness for them and for their families with patience and solace. We belong to Allah and to Him we shall return.”
Aman Bora is currently a Ph.D. Candidate and Junior Research Fellow (JRF) in the Department of Political Science of Soban Singh Jeena University, Uttarakhand (India). Akhilesh Dwivedi is pursuing a Ph.D. in Defence & Strategic Studies from the Chhatrapati Sahu Ji Maharaj University, Kanpur, UP,India.
