30 October 2021, NIICE Commentary 8371
Nikhil Guvvadi
The Bay of Bengal, a part of the larger Indian Ocean is one of the most geostrategic and geoeconomic regions in Asia. The bay is represented in the form of the regional organisation, Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). The seven-member association has identified for themselves fourteen sub-sectors in seven different sectors of Trade, Investment & Development; Environment & Climate Change; Security; Agriculture & Food Security; People to People Contact; Science, Technology & Innovation and Connectivity. Though the founding of BIMSTEC and its continuity reflects a desire for cooperation and integration among its member countries it could not really fulfill its full potential. The negotiations on a Free Trade Agreement have not materialised even after two decades of it being thought after, owing to the fears of India becoming the dominant partner of Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Out of the seven constituent agreements, just two of them; one on the agreement of dispute settlement procedures and mechanisms, the other one on the protocol to amend the framework agreement are ready and the rest on trade investment cooperation have not been yet fully negotiated and agreed upon which generally is given for a regional economic organisation. It took the same amount of time for BIMSTEC to even adopt a charter which was done during its fifth summit on 30th March 2022 in Colombo but, which should have been done at the very beginning that would have laid out the working principles to achieve its objectives efficiently and give them a direction. Nonetheless, it has been achieved now. The challenges faced by BIMSTEC are just like that of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and the growing sphere of influence of China, both in South Asia and the Bay of Bengal is adding to India’s concerns that will potentially further affect any kind of cooperation. Like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Myanmar and Thailand are part of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) both of which are instruments of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Nevertheless, in the interest of multilateralism BIMSTEC still does continue to be relevant and the regional organisation has even brought in institutional reforms that are promising during its fourth summit of August 2018 in Kathmandu where they have pledged to work ‘Towards a Peaceful, Prosperous and Sustainable Bay of Bengal Region’. At the same summit, they also agreed to establish an Inter-governmental Expert Group to develop an action plan on the blue economy emphasising the importance of cooperation in the sustainable development of the region, in the sectors that have been recognised for cooperation during the BIMSTEC Leader’s Retreat on 16th October 2016 in Goa namely aquaculture, hydrography, mineral exploration, coastal shipping, eco-tourism, and renewable energy.
Blue Economy
The human population continues to increase from 7.8 billion in 2020 to 9.9 billion by 2050, especially in the coastal regions where one-fourth of the world population and major cities are located. Land-based resources which are already under stress will continue to be put under even more substantial pressure and states will be turning to the oceans as a source of protein, energy as well as other goods and services because it has even become easier to extract resources from the oceans through advancing technology. But the oceans have even more vulnerable ecosystems than on land and they are already facing a lot of environmental issues such as climate change and sea level rise due to global warming, overfishing and plastic pollution, etc. This is where the concept of a blue economy kicks in. Blue economy is an idea that conceives policies to bring in line economic growth with sustainable development. The oceans generate the largest amount of oxygen and absorb greenhouse gases in turn contributing substantially to the mitigation of climate change. Preserving such a significant asset in countering climate change while trying to meet the world’s growing needs is the idea. Therefore, the only way to ensure a prosperous blue economy is by promoting a sustainable development of it. Many industries have institutional and structural interests in keeping things the way they always were but the blue economy which has not been internalised yet has scope for sustainable development from the very beginning. The blue economy perspective of every country is one that varies from each other owing to their own socio-political needs but, the ocean does not know borders just like climate change and this is also where challenges to a coordinated sustainable development arise.
The very identity of BIMSTEC, which is one of the few regional organisations in the world that bases its association on a water body is most suitable to further the agenda of the blue economy. The BIMSTEC probably realises it too, towards which they have taken steps as mentioned above but even in the Bay of Bengal the blue economy perspectives of all littoral states vary from one another. The geopolitics of the region have also come at loggerheads with the venturing of China into the bay, especially in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Whereas, it had always had its sway on Myanmar. Realpolitik deems it harder to cooperate in such situations as Bangladesh being one of the first countries to see effects of climate change, they are acting rapidly on both the sustainable and economic fronts establishing an Oceanographic Research Institute in the Maritime University and a National Adaptation Program of Action. It also has an SDGs Implementation Strategy and Climate Change Resilience Action Plan. Whereas Thailand sees it from more of a sustainable point of view to further conservation and sustainable development of fisheries and aquaculture. India on the other hand pursues a blue economy as an opportunity for growth though there has been an emphasis on sustainability through establishing institutions that aid sustainable development. Pursuing extensive port building through the Sagarmala initiative, a deep ocean mission to explore the mineral wealth and a ‘blue revolution’ in the fisheries industry. All this while there is less emphasis on regulation that achieves sustainability in an industry that faces enormous regulatory challenges in enforcing the rules at sea with rampant piracy and illegal activities in all prospects of the blue economy.
Way Forward
The concerned parties need to overcome their prejudices and put all their effort into trying and cooperate and integrate the region. This can only happen when all the littoral countries adhere to multilateralism in a region where an India vs China narrative is increasingly being pushed. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka need to rethink their relations with China in that sense. Bangladesh can take the lead role in furthering the BIMSTEC agenda and India being the bigger power need to give its neighbours a greater space and opportunities. BIMSTEC should try and incorporate both Indonesia and Malaysia or even Singapore into the fold considering their huge potential in contributing to the region and the Strait of Malacca being from where most of the energy needs of Asia go through. It should also synchronise working with the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) by developing a regime that can cater to the urgent need of the ecology which will in turn contribute to the connectivity issues that have long been overdue in the Bay of Bengal and the larger Indian Ocean.
Nikhil Guvvadi is a Research Intern at NIICE.
