5 August 2022, NIICE Commentary 8177
Somali Chowdhuri
Japan had been following a “pacifist foreign policy” which had been established via the Americans into the Japanese constitution through the infamous ‘Article 9’ after World War II had ended. This provision restricts Japan to settle disputes with military might and provides for a ‘no war’ clause making Japan militarily weak. Shinzo Abe, who belonged to the liberal democratic party of Japan, always envisioned that its high time Japan must regain its lost glory and should be a “normal power” like other nations. Japan must have allies as well as ties and engagements and bilateral and multilateral collaborations for the growth of the nation.
Shinzo Abe’s second term as a Prime minister saw the rise in nascent nationalism. There was a rise in the military power of the country and also in the budget. He also believed that Japan had mourned long for the havoc the Japanese imperialist force caused on the whole world. He stated that the coming generations mustn’t be penalized for the heinous World war crimes in the post war era, for no fault of their own.
The Apparent ‘Thaw’
The foreign policy of Japan saw a drastic change in its course while Shinzo Abe was the prime minister of the country. Since the year 2012, there have been quite a lot of developments in the relations of Japan and China. China and the Japanese relations haven’t been that smooth. This dates back to world war damages as well as the postwar strategies. However, Shinzo Abe was one of the few leaders in Japan who worked towards amending the Sino-Japanese relations.
Shinzo Abe has visited China several times hoping to normalize diplomatic ties. Soon after becoming the Prime minister in the year 2006, he went to China, which was his first foreign diplomatic visit. Chinese President Xi Jinping had visited Japan during the Apec Economic Leaders meeting and laid the foundation of peaceful relations between both the countries. There was a discussion on the bone of contention between the relations of the two neighbors. In the year 2018, Shinzo Abe visited China, and the world perceived it as a thaw to the long-standing cold relations of both the nations. Shinzo Abe was very optimistic about the One Belt and Road Initiative that was launched by the Chinese and he also saw it as an opportunistic endeavor to traverse new markets. He had sent his private secretary to the first summit of BRI in 2017. The China-Japan-South Korea cooperation also noticed a boost under the Jinping, Moon-Jae, and Abe leadership. This resulted in great social exchanges between the people of the nations. Although Japan under Abe decided not to be a part of the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank but it agreed to be a part of the BRI initiative and fund China.
Abe’s ‘Mixed Foreign Policy’ towards China
Chinese and Japanese relations however had a lot of bottleneck disputes amidst all the efforts and the high -level engagements. After the World war the Japanese had a huge military power and it surpassed China. Nevertheless, after the Post-war era, China’s economy is double the size of Japan’s and China is the largest market for Japanese exports. Even after being the third largest economy in the world, Japan lags behind in defense strength to China. In the year 2012, Abe had taken a much-contested move to nationalize the Diaoyu islands (known as the Senkaku islands in Japan). This caused a lot of resentment in Beijing. Abe has been portrayed as a nationalist leader in China which threatens their interests. The next set of opposition evolved after Abe visited the Yasukuni Shrine paying tribute to the World War II deceased Japanese nationals as well as the war criminals. This triggered instant hatred for the leader amongst the Chinese citizens. Japan also paced up its defense deals and strengthened its military bases, especially in the south-west of Japan.
Shinzo Abe’s aims at normalization of his country and using U.S ties to counter Chinese pressures was not accepted by the Chinese leadership. He is regarded as the chief architect of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue known as QUAD. Quad’s recent summit held in Tokyo clearly states the strategic plan to counter the aggressive military actions of China in East Asia. Through QUAD Abe wanted to establish the “Indo -Pacific legacy”. Abe was well aware that China cannot be contained. During his term, Japan saw an increasing engagement with the U.S, India and Australia amidst the growing rivalry of the Chinese with the Americans and the Indians regarding trade and border disputes respectively. There was also a proactive engagement with the ASEAN states. The 12-party free trade Trans-Pacific Partnership was signed by Japan along with Australia. When Donald Trump stepped out from the TPP, Abe partnered with Australia to save the agreement. Abe also signed the Japan and U.S free trade agreement.
Shinzo Abe’s stand regarding the South China Sea and the Taiwan issue was also critical to Sino-Japanese relations. Japan along with India raised the issue of the South China Sea countering the Chinese ‘OBOR’ by the UNCLOS conventions of the UN. In 2017, Japan and New Zealand had a meeting where they passed a statement that China should adhere to the 2016 ruling which stated about the ‘nine-dash line’. This case was petitioned by the Philippines, however this was rejected by the Chinese leadership stating that the ‘nine-dash lines’ do not come under the jurisdiction of international law. However, during the same year, both Modi and Abe toned down the controversial South China Sea dispute even though they were the strongest opponent of the BRI.
With Shinzo Abe’s term as the PM there was a considerable amount of change in the relationship between Taiwan and Japan. Abe openly expressed his concerns for Taiwan’s security and called Taiwan as Japan’s “important partner” and “precious friend”. Japan established stronger bilateral ties with Taiwan signing the fishing rights agreement in the East China Sea in 2013. Even after stepping down from the post of prime minister, he played a key role in carving the Japanese ties with Taiwan. His successors emphasized on the Japanese Taiwan cooperation and diplomatic ties. In a controversial statement, he emphasized the “Taiwan emergency”. He stated that any emergency on Taiwan would mean an emergency on Japan and U.S alliance. This was highly criticized by the Chinese leadership. Abe was actively vocal about the Taiwanese cause and often posted on his social media handles showcasing his solidarity with Taiwan. He even went on to comment in a U.S news op-ed that China’s moves towards Taiwan creates an environment of instability in the Indo-Pacific region. His stand for Taiwan was more like a counter defensive mechanism against China’s aggressive foreign policy.
Future of the ‘Complex Relations’ after Abe Era
The sudden assassination of Shinzo Abe on the 8th July 2022, had brought the whole world into a state of shock. Condolences have been poured from all over the world. China too has sent their condolences. However, Abe’s nationalist ideas along with the pro Taiwanese moves and declarations have caused a sentiment of dissent among the Chinese population. The Chinese president Xi Jinping, stated that Abe was a respected leader who ‘tried’ to develop the relations between the two neighbours. This has been seen in a negative light in the Japanese leadership, as there is no mention of how much the bilateral ties have improved.
The present prime minister of Japan, Fumio Kishida must be very diplomatically careful and alert when dealing with the Chinese. Since then, now the leadership of Shinzo Abe has perished and the party is left without any Godfather. The stances regarding bilateral ties with China as well as the multilateral ties with other nations and ASEAN states must be calculated and improvised before any crucial move needs to be taken. The assassination of Shinzo Abe can be a golden opportunity for China to force their aggressive militarism in the South China Sea and around the Senkaku islands which are of huge geo-strategic value to Japan. In this case, India lost one of its friendly state’s most reliable leaders, thus causing a gap in the development of the QUAD as well, if only Kishida is successful in holding onto the ‘Abe legacy’ in the foreign policy of Japan.
Shinzo Abe’s contribution to his nation is immemorial. He saved the nation when its economy was at its lowest stage. An earthquake had hit the country destroying the country. Shinzo Abe through his leadership qualities and marvellous economic and social strategies namely ‘Abenomics’ and ‘Womenomics’ was able to restore the lost glory of Japan. His nationalistic ideas though a much contested arena made the country militarily strong and regained its world power image in the international front. His only dream of the amendment of the pacifist constitution of Japan stays undone. Many believe that very soon his wish to break the constraints of the constitution and be militarily strong shall be a unanimous Japanese desire as well.
Somali Chowdhuri is Research Intern at NIICE.
