Endemic of Coup d’état in the African Continent

Where the whole world has been fighting COVID-19 pandemic, the African subcontinent is suffering from the endemic of coup-d’états.  Military coups have been a regular occurrence in Africa in the decades that followed their independence and its frequent reoccurrence is the matter of great concern. The world is merely two months into this year and have already witnessed two coups in the continent- one failed coup in Guinea Bissau and a successful military takeover in Burkina Faso.

Roch Marc Christian Kaboré served as the President of Burkina Faso from 2015 until he was deposed in 2022 by the military putsch. Kaboré already lost confidence among the citizens against his failed attempt at checking jihadist insurgency. Under his leadership, the once stable country was turning into a hotbed of crisis, corruption and a brutal stage for killing of civilians by the armed groups resulting in the displacement of over 1 million people. Had the military takeover been a movie script, then Burkina Faso isn’t the original one, considering its closest neighbours, Mali and Guinea who had been ruled by the military within the last 18 months. Between 1960 and 2000, the overall number of coups and coup attempts were at an average of 4 per year. However, the call for democratisation and constitutionalism grew within the century halving the number of military coups to two per year until 2019. 2021 has witnessed a higher number of coups (higher than average) in the continent than in the previous years with 6 coups or attempted coups recorded. There were successful takeovers in Mali, Chad, Guinea and Sudan and failed attempts at Niger and Sudan. In September 2021, the UN Secretary-General António Guterres voiced concern that “military coups are back”. Are military coups back at the stage of African subcontinent? On a continent that was being lauded and complimented for its democratic advancement, this backsliding is dangerously suggesting the frequent coups to be back in vogue.

Decoding the Pattern of Coups

“If the people are crushed by their elites, it is up to the army to give the people their freedom,” said Guinea’s new leader, Col. Doumbouya.

Military coups in Africa have been a common tool wielded by the military officials to change the political order. Any takeover which lasts beyond 7 days is termed as a coup d’état. The study identifies 200 such attempts in Africa since 1950s. Coups are harbinger of more coups but the claim to be ruled by superior forces come with challenges. The coup in Chad last year marks the sixth coup or coup attempt since 1975, the coup in Guinea marks the third coup since its independence and astonishingly, Mali has witnessed second coup in 2021 in less than a year. It’s quite evident that the military putschists who attempt to overthrow government with force suffer from legitimacy crisis. This dilemma prompts them to justify their actions to smoothen their roadway further and to stall being overthrown by some other coup. Hence, most soldiers portray and feign themselves as the ‘saviours’ and ‘Good Samaritans’ of their respective countries. For example, Doumbouya claimed himself to be the protector of Guinea from its debased and corrupt regime. In Mali, Goïta mimicked from the same script saying, “We had to choose between disorder and cohesion within the defense and security forces, and we have chosen cohesion…because it is in the nation’s best interest.” He justified his actions as an intervention to fulfil the people’s wish for the change. Military takeovers are often accompanied by the statements from the putschists that the coups are ‘temporary’ and their presence is necessary for the safety and security of the region before the restoration of an efficient elected government. In most of the cases, military councils are established to oversee swift transition to democracy, some of which are intended to avoid wrath and sanctions from international organisations. Burkina Faso shows a recent example of this process at work. The military government restored the constitution a week after the military takeover and appointed the coup’s leader as head of the state for transitional period. This move came only after African Union suspended its membership. Developments in Mali were along the same line when Col. Goïta was installed as the transitional Vice President until the presidential and parliamentary elections were to be held within 18 months.

Drivers of the Coup

The upward trend of the militarisation of politics is influenced by the blend of many external factors, including the nonchalance of the international institutions, and internal factors such as pervasive public discontentment against the corruption, perfidy and malfeasance. The militarisation only occurs when the legitimacy of the ruling elites is in question; for instance, when leaders like Alpha Conde pervert the constitutional course and play with the election and electoral process, there is a widespread holler by the people expecting someone to halt the ambitions of such leaders. The military thus assumes the role of a saviour and use civic discontentment to hold on to the ground and prove their illegal and unconstitutional actions to be legitimate for the ‘welfare’ of the people. African countries have a fertile ground for such military takeovers. Therefore, all the African coup leaders state the same reason for the takeovers- corruption, mismanagement, poverty, insecurity, poor governance, etc and economic underperformance is mostly cited predictor of coups. The leader of Guinea’s coup, Col. Doumbouya cited these similar justifications as a reason for overthrowing President Alpha Condé. Likewise, the Sudanese, Malian and Zimbabwean generals echo the same reasons for toppling the respective leaders in their countries. Beyond this, the lack of trust and faith of Africans in their leaders have catalysed the success of the militarisation of politics. According to the survey conducted in 19 African countries in 2019-20, 4 out of 10 respondents (42 percent) believe that elections work well to ensure that MPs reflect the voters’ views. In other words, such survey shows that the voters have lost their trust in the constitutional means of electing government required to maintain representativeness and accountability, key ingredients in making a functional democracy. Hence, deplorable economic conditions and restricted state capacity comes out to give the most plausible explanations to the comeback of coups in Africa.

UN Secretary General António Guterres has displayed his concern for the comeback of coups and blamed international and regional organisations adopting lenient approach enabling the coup leaders to make minimal concessions while holding the reigns of power for a longer time. The regional organisations like African Union have been rightly condemning the coups in the continent but has turned deaf and dumb to the constitutional abuses by the elected leaders. These double standards of the organisations and perceived elite conspiracies encourage young leaders to come to the ground for saving the day. The Economic Community of West African States or ECOWAS has also come under the question for reacting quick to the military coups but staying quiet during constitutional mockery by the leaders. Such organizations have to remain steadfast on maintaining the constitutional sanctity and the rule of law in the region to limit the instances of military takeovers. The coups proliferate in the regions with history of instability, so there’s an alarming need for such organisations to transform their outlook towards such states in the region in order to establish considerable stability.

Frequent coups have led to the relocation of the foreign investments and companies from the region due to inconducive and unpredictable environment for the business, thus deteriorating the economic development of the region. The effects of such coups are not only restricted to the continent but has global impacts, targeting the celebrated political ideology of democracy. China has a policy of non-interference in the internal matters of the African countries, as long as they do not sever economic ties. This policy is widely appreciated across the continent, with many African leaders wooed by the economic juggernaut, convincing these leaders to forsake the West’s ingredients of good governance. Both Russia and China have been prioritising economic ties overlooking the weakening of democracy in the continent. The whole situation is a reflection of the Cold War era where the putschists were indifferent from the loss of support from the West because the Soviet Union was ever ready to forge ties with them. The failure of democracy in delivering public goods and security has swayed the citizens towards embracing the coup, a rekindled hope.

A commonly known fact by historians and academicians is that “the men on horseback are not easily or quickly persuaded to return to the barracks.” We might need to brace ourselves for the eventualities of more coups in Africa in the foreseeable future. But instead of being silent spectators to the derailing situation in the African continent, the international and regional organisations should consolidate all their efforts in reviving the citizens’ faith for democracy, simultaneously. The democratically elected leaders should resuscitate the democratic and constitutional means of running the government and hold a beacon of hope for Africans.