Expectations from Fumio Kishida: The Challenges for the Upcoming Prime Minister of Japan

23 October 2021, NIICE Commentary 7492
Gaurav Raja Dahal

After defeating Kono, who was seen as a popular contender for the post and who also led the first round of the election, with the support from the major faction of the LDP, Fumio Kishida became victorious in the LDP’s leadership election held back in September. He was PM Abe’s former policy chief between 2017-2020 and foreign minister between 2012 to 2017. With this surprising victory, he became the successor of PM Suga whose single-year tenure was marred with ineffective pandemic response resulting in unpopularity among the Japanese public according to the polls. With this, Kishida’s tenure as the 100th Prime minister of Japan was scheduled from October 4, 2021, in a parliamentary session.

With the recently held general election on Sunday, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured a comfortable win with an outright majority in the lower house of parliament holding 276 of the 465 seats. This victory is seen as the mandate of the voters to Kishida’s leadership as the prime minister despite the inadequate pandemic response by his predecessors in the past years.

With this victory, PM Kishida is soon expected to call a special parliamentary session to reelect himself as the prime minister. Subsequently, Prime minister Kishida is expected to keep most of the ministers on his post-election cabinet, and with the control gained over parliamentary committees from this stability, he is expected to start drafting the pledged stimulus packages and take necessary pragmatic steps and policies to downsize the prevailing adversities of the pandemic on the economy.

COVID-19 Recovery Response

As the new prime minister of Japan, Kishida’s immediate responsibility will be to provide the nation with a proper recovery response to the ongoing global pandemic that his predecessor handled ineffectively. Inadequate border enforcement measures like the extended quarantine period and selected suspension of entrance permits have been some of the challenges that have emerged regarding the foreign labor market and business community. It’s clear that Japan now requires leadership with specific skills and knowledge to recognize and address these issues.

A joint statement issued by The American Chamber of Commerce in Japan (ACCJ), the European Business Council (EBC), the Australian & New Zealand Chamber of Commerce in Japan (ANZCCJ), and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce in Japan (CCCJ) on May, stated that the Japanese government has not been able to achieve the anticipated success compared to other countries and condemned its decision to ban the entry of just non-Japanese nationals as both discriminatory and ineffective public health policy. These inadequate recovery responses and measures have resulted in dire consequences impeding the Japanese economy and social recovery. With this, the whole country is looking out for the pledges Kishida has previously made during his campaigns to ingest hefty sums to stimulate the battered economy and protect the vulnerable with a new health crisis agency.

Japan’s Stand on the Free and Open Indo Pacific Strategy

As the longest-serving post-war former foreign minister for Abe’s administration, Kishida has the insights and understanding of Japan’s foreign relations especially with its immediate neighbors and longtime security partner; the US, whether it be on economic, military, or political issues. It is also well conversed that the controversial visit of the Japanese Prime minister to the Yasukuni shrine dedicated to the war dead has been continuously condemned by its immediate neighbors China, South Korea and seen as support to Japan’s imperialist past. Despite this, Kishida’s statement to consider visiting the shrine can reap no fruitful relationship with its neighbors especially now, when the relationship with them is in a dire state.

Kishida has also expressed his deep concerns regarding the increasingly assertive Chinese behavior on diplomatic and economic fronts stating that dealing with the assertive behavior of China is one of his top priorities as the upcoming Japanese Prime minister. Before the election, the LDP had laid out the policy manifesto to double Japan’s defense spending i.e., almost 2% of the GDP abandoning the earlier commitment of Japan to hold its military spending to 1% of the GDP as its postwar pacifist policy. We can anticipate that, like his predecessors, Prime Minister Kishida’s policy regarding Japan’s security will also be focused on taking small steps for bolstering Japan’s military might to deter assertive China in the disputed territories, especially towards Taiwan. With this, we can expect that he will continue to support the formation of the QUAD as an ambitious joint partnership for showing commitment to democratic values and on the issue of the free and open Indo Pacific region.

As such, the international community, especially Japan’s close security allies will closely be watching Kishida’s forthcoming steps as the Japanese PM, with the absolute majority, to alter the Japanese pacifist policy and amend “Article 9” of the constitution to form belligerent defense policies as attempted by his predecessor, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Gaurav Raja Dahal is Intern with NIICE.