5 April 2021, NIICE Commentary 6951
Dr. Gadde Omprasad
On 12th March 2021, first ever summit took place between Australia, India, Japan and the United States, marking a historic beginning of a new chapter in the geo-strategic relations of international system. A joint statement was issued soon after the meeting, which focused largely on developing close cooperation among these countries referred as Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (in short Quad) in addressing the threats in Indo-Pacific region both in maritime and health security aspects. All these four countries are represented by democratically elected governments and are also advocates of democracy. Yet the joint statement did not accommodate any concern towards the democracy restoration movement that has been taking place ever since military coup took place in Myanmar in the first week of February. Individually, all these four countries have adopted different levels of tones towards the military coup and have reacted cautiously. Though Quad has provided an opportunity for the four-member countries to work together, their stakes in Myanmar are different from each other.
This approach of Quad not only reflects the significance of Myanmar but also underlines the preset scenario in the international system in which the centre of power struggle has been shifted to Indo-Pacific region from Atlantic region of cold war period. Within the Indo-Pacific region, the Indian Ocean Region, where Myanmar is located is the centre of power struggle between China and India. The strategic significance of IOR region is based on the fact that it provides maritime routes through which a large chunk of world trade happens and hegemony over the region means controlling the economic interests of the countries who are dependent on these trade routes.
Scholars who closely watch India’s foreign policy observes glaring shifts from Nehruvian idealism to ‘state interest’ centric realism. It is more prominently visible in India-Myanmar relations. India’s reaction to the military coup in Myanmar is reflected by the national interests of the country which could be broadly categorised into two groups, economic and security.
For India, Myanmar provides vital connectivity to its Northeastern region to both sea and to South East Asian countries. The primary objective of Act East Policy launched in 2014 was to improve this connectivity along with strengthening economic and socio-cultural ties between these two regions. India and Myanmar shares about 1600 km of land border through Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh states on Indian side and Kachin, Sagiang and Chin states in Myanmar. Both sides of this region are relatively backward and needs close cooperation between the two countries. Infrastructure projects like 250 km long Indo-Myanmar Friendship road, 3500 km India-Myanmar-Thailand Friendship highway and Kaladan Multi model Transit routes are extremely important for both the countries to develop backward regions as well as to increase physical connectivity between South Asian and South East Asian regions. These projects also have the potential to bring economic opportunities and market access between India’s Northeast and ASEAN and envisaged to reduce levels of poverty, increase employment opportunities and remove the regional isolation.
Though the North East region comprises 7.9 percent share in India’s geographical mass and about 3.76 percent of total population, since 1998, the Government of India has been allocating about 10 percent of the Annual Plan Budget of 52 Ministries for development projects. During the NDA rule in 2004, a separate ministry for the Development of North Eastern Region was formed to create adequate infrastructure, capacity building of local populace and for suggesting measures to improve international cooperation, particularly with neighborhood. Ever since the ministry was formed, projects amounting to about Rs 220 billion have been taken up in which projects upto the tune of about Rs 110 billion have been completed and remaining projects are at different levels of completion. In 2018, an MOU was signed in the BIMSTEC conference for establishing a regional electric grid among member countries and in February 2020, 3000 km long power grid connectivity between India, Myanmar and Thailand was announced. This will facilitate uninterrupted power supply to the backward and remote regions in both India and Myanmar and would attract private investments in manufacturing sector. Given the potential of the region, Japan in 2019, decided to invest about Rs 130 billion in road network improvement and other projects and also offered technical cooperation in agricultural and irrigation sectors.
The future plans economic development in Northeast is heavily relied on India’s relations with Myanmar. The integrated economic corridor, which will encompass different modes of transport, like roads, railways, airways and inland waterways, has the potential to connect all the economic nodes in the region. These projects are expected to contribute majorly to border trade. Though at the moment the land border trade between the two countries is significantly low, because of the various infrastructural, bureaucratic and policy constraints, there is a huge scope for drastic improvements in the situation. The Northeastern states have huge hydropower potential estimated at nearly 80,000 MW, natural gas reserves of 190 billion cubic metres, coal reserves of over 900 million tonnes and oil reserves of over 500 million tonnes. These reserves can alone solve many basic energy needs of the local and neighbouring countries. Food security related issues can be addressed with the available varieties of agricultural produce on both sides. Since the region’s population is a mixture of very high literacy rate (over 70 percent), there is a scope for next level of information technology revolution and subsequent emergence of another Silicon Valley in the region. The manufacturing sector of ASEAN countries can also access the market of not only the region but also the neighbouring Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal.
India and Myanmar also share about 725 km of maritime boundary in Bay of Bengal. For security reasons having good relations with Myanmar are extremely important for India as the country is connected to India and China at its northwest and northeastern borders respectively. China with CPEC projects has already reached Arabian sea through Pakistan and India would not like to see any similar situation where China enters into Bay of Bengal through Myanmar. That situation would jeopardize India’s security interests both in its inland and maritime territories. Myanmar is also a crucial partner to India in dealing with insurgency in Northeast. It is important for India to have good relations with Myanmar, whether it is under military junta’s rule or under a democratic form of government.
