11 Novemeber 2020, NIICE Commentary 6436
Kimberley Anne Nazareth
The historic 2020 US election has finally come to an end and the actual work of the nation begins. It had the largest voter turnout in the history of the US elections and the most votes ever won by a candidate – Joe Biden won 74 million votes. Kamala Harris, will be the first woman, and the first women of colour, with South Asia descent to be the Vice President of the USA. But in addition to the historicity of the election, what does it mean for the rest of the world? Joe Biden (if he holds onto his lead in Arizona and Georgia) will twin the same number of electoral votes that Donald Trump won in 2016 – 306. The election was a partial referendum, it was a referendum on Donald Trump and not on the Republican Party as a whole. This was seen especially when many House Democrats lost their seat to Republicans and the GOP (Grand Old Party) continue to be in control of the Senate (for the time being as Georgia is set to have a run-up election in January).
As of now, Trump has not congratulated the incoming president, and there are no expectations that he will. However, world leaders have already called the President-elect and congratulated him on his victory as well as pledged their support. Biden was careful not to entertain calls from world leaders while still on the campaign trail in effort to avoid a 2016 scenario. However, in the aftermath of his win, Biden as President elect took calls from world leaders
The world is very different from the one that was inherited by Barack Obama in 2008, Biden has pledged to renew American leadership at home and abroad. There are three main endeavors that are a top priority for the incoming administration in the matter of foreign policy – renewing American leadership abroad, Climate Accord, Iran deal, and others.
According to a survey by PEW about world leaders, Trump’s ratings are considerably lower than the previous administration. Trump has also been seen more negatively than the previous president. The international community also viewed the US dealing with the Coronavirus negatively with only 15 percent saying that the US has done a good job in dealing with the outbreak while on the other hand, nearly all 13 countries rate the World Health Organization and European Union favorably on their Coronavirus response.
President Biden is fielding calls from world leaders; among them were Trudeau, who discussed the US-Canada relationship. In Europe, the PM of Ireland was among the first to congratulate the new President, given Biden’s Irish descent. The Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison acknowledged “American leadership is indispensable to meeting these challenges and upholding the rules, norms and standards of our international community,” London mayor Sadiq Khan said Biden and Harris’s win meant it was “time to get back to building bridges, not walls”. Netanyahu said he and Biden have had a “long and warm” personal relationship for almost 40 years and sees him as “a great friend of Israel”. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas also offered his congratulations to the winners of the US Presidential election.
There is no doubt that domestic politics will play a greater role in the early months of the Biden administration. The president as reported will be rolling back a number of Trump’s actions through executive order which includes the Climate Accord and the ‘Muslim ban’ to name a few. However, foreign policy will play an important role in the administration given the interconnectedness of the globalized international community. For instance, dealing with COVID-19, cooperation is necessity. Trump had downplayed to a large extent the impact of COVID-19 on the US. However, Biden’s victory signals a change in the attitude of the American. The Biden administration has set up a task force in an effort to address the ongoing crisis. Biden has also embraced international engagement, including prioritizing sustained funding for global health security.
Biden has always been a fervent supporter of the liberal international order, one that Trump has condemned. Therefore, the Biden administration will have to play ‘Re-Assurer-in-Chief’ in an effort to make up for the trust deficit. This is especially geared towards allies like NATO and other regional allies as well as adversarial nations like Iran, Russia and China.
Biden has supported military interventions abroad, advocated for the use of force, has expressed skepticism over US ability to reshape foreign societies. Biden is also skeptical of unilateralism and favours multilateralism. Trump’s withdrawal from treaties and denigration of alliances has “bankrupted America’s word in the world.”
On the Iranian front, Biden is looking to re-engage with Tehran and work towards a re-entry into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The interplay of domestic politics in foreign policy will definitely create a conundrum for the incoming president. The Republicans are adversely against any kind of deal that would allow Iran to maintain its nuclear program. On the other hand, Iran is unlikely to negotiate with the US given the trust deficit.
In addition to dealing with Russia and China, the Biden administration will tread carefully in its policies towards Moscow. This is especially as the New START is set for renewal in February 2021, a treaty supported by Biden. On the other hand in dealing with China, the relations are off to a murky strat with Beijing, still not having congratulated Biden on his victory. However, relations are expected to be at the lowest point, given that Trump has launched a trade war against China and has blamed them for COVID-19. China could very well be waiting for the lawsuits issued by Trump to play out in an effort to avoid worsening the ties between the countries. There is uncertainty in dealing with China, but there is hope that relations will improve. Once again, it will also involve the domestic debates in Congress regarding the relations.
The Climate Accord is another endeavor that the Biden administration has pledged re-entry and support. The Biden Plan calls for an USD 1.7 trillion investment in clean energy and green jobs, an end to fossil fuel subsidies and a ban on new oil and gas permits on public lands. If Biden is looking for the US to be a leader, this is where he can make a mark. There will definitely be a Republican backlash. However, Democrats and Republicans support to phase down hydrofluorocarbons (HFC). There is a great deal of apprehension among allies given the uncertainty at home. The climate change deniers in the US could very well make it difficult for the administration to pass any meaningful resolution.
Therefore, it is not difficult to state that with a divided government, Biden will have limited political capital. This is also true as many GOP members refuse to acknowledge his victory. Getting the Democrats and Republicans to work on any foreign policy issue or even domestic will be an uphill battle.
