28 September 2020, NIICE Commentary 6052
Dr. Nuzhat Nazneen
Presently, international politics is in a phase of continuous evolution and fluctuating political calculations. After the disintegration of the USSR, the balance of power was skewed towards the US. However, in the absence of one power commanding authority today, regularly changing politically-induced power equations place us in a situation to be unsure who the Great power is and who is the one challenging it. The paper attempts to enquire about the meaning and location of great power today. Political Islam, ideologically challenges western hegemony but there is no effective Muslim bloc to induce that challenge. However, China with its growing relationship with Pakistan is playing a significant role either in giving birth to a new Muslim bloc or provide assistance in stabilising the existing one. With recent developments between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan and their political brouhaha, it seems that there awaits a shift in power in the Middle-East and with it, lies a chance for the proliferation of Chinese domination with the support of the reviving Muslim lobby- primarily comprising of Turkey, Malaysia and Pakistan. In this analysis, Iran with its political influence provides an interesting angle because on one hand, it is enjoying the place of the kingmaker and on the other hand, is also a weak link of both the rivals – Israel-supported by US and China, backing Muslim bloc.
Ideological Arrangements
Geostrategic history of the modern world bears witness to the ideological clash between the capitalist US and communist Russia, continuing the legacy of the erstwhile USSR. However, now the hegemonic and imperialistic power of the US is being challenged by another aggressive expansionist state- China. The weakening position of the US in its global leadership under the Trump administration, coinciding with the Chinese economic and diplomatic augmentation in its region and beyond leaves open the political battlefield to claim world leadership. Europe has reached the stabilising heights of their political statements on vital issues hence, are strengthening their status quo. Asia and Middle-East are emerging as active regions which are to play a role in defining power politics. This shift in the base of power struggle is expected to impact also the definition of power. China envisages world leadership via its regional supremacy in the Asia-Pacific.
The humungous take-over of Chine of the region through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), China Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), airport-construction tender in Sylhet, Bangladesh or Pokhara, Nepal and assisting land-locked Nepalese trade economy with an alternative route – as an alternative to the existing Indian routes; this take over is a structural move to reinforcing its ties with the nations with economic instabilities.  Similarly, the Russia factor is equally important in this context. Communist ideology provides additional support to keep the two giants – Russia and China together. Their common dismissal of the US-led world order leads to their strategic partnership in growing energy trade, weapon sales of Russia to China and diplomatic cooperation over some levels of their common concerns in the Middle-East despite their simultaneous disagreements over energy, weapon sales and the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. Moreover, the regional sanction to its political supremacy is showing no sign of putting China at halt.
Here comes the role of reviving ideological bloc endorsing Muslim unity. American interests in the Middle-East have successfully kept the Muslim alliances under control via the upper current of the bilateral ties between the US and Saudi Arabia. Subsequently, Imran Khan – the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mahathir bin Mohamad – statesman and ex-Prime Minister of Malaysia and Recep Tayyip Erdogan – the President of Turkey have been contemplating to establish a Muslim organisation to provide an alternative narrative to pro-American Saudi Arabian leadership in the Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC). This posse finds in China a legitimate ally, who is equally critical of the Western ideological control. Through this alliance China seeks to penetrate into the politically shattered and economically devastated but strategically crucial region of West Asia and the Middle East. Iranian foreign policy has been a difficult puzzle to crack as far as its political inclinations are considered. It has offered potential partnerships to both the US and China, and India and Pakistan.
However, recently after the US imposed sanctions on Iran, it left Iran with no other option but to revive its 2016 deal with China – despite its fear of compromising sovereignty in return for economic stability. The US, in its political stubbornness and for the equation with Saudi Arabia failed to exploit Iran as a viable tool to enhance an American influence in the region. US sanctions against Iran and its simultaneous move to China has impacted the Indo-Iranian relationship as well, which is expected to grow bleaker under intensifying Chinese influence on Iran. These changes in the geopolitical circumstances improve the chance of Iran joining the yet-to-develop Muslim assemblage. Moreover, the decision of the US to vacate Afghanistan after the combined peace efforts between US-Pakistan on one hand, and Taliban on the other, put India – the present-day US ally in the region, in a vulnerable position. Under these circumstances, Washington needs to formulate foreign policies considering the complex matrix in the Asia Pacific, where backtracking of the US seems inevitable.
Conclusion
In the discourse on great power rivalry, China and the US emerge as the key arch-rivals contending global supremacy. However, post-pandemic economic dealings and diplomatic strategies of China through its ‘mask diplomacy’ and ‘soft power’ engagement, it has gained an upper hand in the equation. Political calculations indicate that in the near future the US is to face intensified difficulties in maintaining the leading role and influence of China is expected to spread across Europe. Nonetheless, in faraway future ideological differences between China and the emerging or reviving Muslim bloc might start to create problems. Also, Russia is compromising with Chinese increasing influence at the cost of its overshadowing regional status because their contemporary politics is against a common enemy -the US. What future holds for these two countries, once this common enemy is neutralised is unsure.
Despite all these uncertainties, political analysts are not to ignore the fact that Chinese growing hegemony is primarily through economic ties where its own stakes are high. Therefore, these stakes are expected to translate into ideological equilibrium to be reached through mutual tolerance and politics of silence and indifference in the conflicting matters. However, in this growing regional shrink, India provides an interesting perspective when it continues with its committed ties with the capitalist US. On one hand, despite the available precedents where the US has always weighed its national interests even at the cost of its allies, India – while trusting the assurances from the US, is risking its regional acceptance and economic benefits by not exploring the opportunities of economic connectivity with China. On the other hand, China is neglecting the significance of India risking regional peace and security. As per the undertaken discussion, multiple power centres with their organisational alliances, are to lead in international politics. The future is expected not to be the winning story of a state but of that state that is leading or smoothening the workings throughout distinctive blocs.
