28 July 2020, NIICE Commentary 5703
Sutirtha Mazumdar & Avilash Nayak
When Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China spoke of the “Chinese global dream and national glory” in 2012, many did not understand the intensity of his statement. But the Doklam standoff of 2017 stood as the embodiment of a new Chinese policy aimed economic, strategic and territorial expansionism. General Secretary Xi promised to transform China into a prosperous state by 2020 and a fully-developed superpower by 2049 as part of his “Two Centennial Goals.” This article reflects on the explicit tendencies of Chinese aggression in the context of the brewing Cold War, which are pronounced in its foreign policy and the various political and economic routes it has taken for the same.
China’s Aggressive Foreign Policy and Hegemonistic Behaviour
Historically speaking, China has displayed aggressive and expansionist tendencies in attacking the American forces in North Korea as well as in Vietnam. At this juncture, China’s strategically and geographically significant Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has triggered scuffles with other aspiring powerhouses like India. The Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s use of the term ‘expansionist’ in an indirect reference to China during his surprise visit to Ladakh early in July 2020, caught considerable international attention.
According to the Times of India, China has territorial disputes with over 20 countries. Currently, China is on difficult terms with neighbours like India, Bhutan, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam. It has been transforming man-made islands in the disputed South China Sea into fortified military and naval installations, posing a formidable challenge to the United States while conducting military drills in the area which is being reciprocated by the American deployment of its aircraft carriers and warships in the strategically important region.
Chinese ambitions in the western pacific have been described as tendencies of a regional hegemon due to its attempts to rupture America’s alliances in the region by pushing US military forces farther away from China’s shores.
But as long as the United States maintains a strong military position in the region, countries such as Vietnam, Taiwan and Japan would continue to contest Chinese supremacy. According to the Global Times, “South-East Asian countries have a clear sense of US’ strategic intention in the region as most of them understand that US’ involvement in the region is limited and once they have conflict with China, assistance offered by the US will be far from sufficient.” China has invested heavily in submarines, advanced air defences and anti-ship missiles and is thus making every effort to increase its military presence in the region around the South China Sea and East China Sea.
China’s latest intrusion in Galwan Valley, Gogra, Pangong Tso and Ladakh is apparently to fortify Aksai Chin, reinforce its heavy military as well as to further its economic interests in the region. The increasing closeness between Prime Minister Modi and the US President Trump works towards Washington’s scheme of things in order to play a bigger role in the Indo-Pacific region; and hence has enraged the Chinese leadership.
Economic Stratagems
The American investments in Israel have made the latter into one of its biggest military and strategic allies in the Middle East. According to the Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies, US firms comprise two-thirds of the 300 foreign-invested research and development centres in Israel. In a report published by Jeremy M. Sharp, stated that since 1985, the United States has been providing Israel an annual aid of nearly USD 3 billion. Israel was the largest recipient of American aid and from 1976 to 2004, it received a cumulative aid of USD 142.3 billion. China however takes another route and provides vulnerable developing countries with loans rather than aids. As per a New York Times report, “In order to erase out roughly USD 1 billion Chinese debt, the Sri Lankan government struck a deal with the Chinese, whereby it handed over the Hambantota port and 15,000 acres of land around it for 99 years.” Even after striking the deal, Sri Lanka is more in debt to China than ever before as other loans have continued and rates are higher than other international lenders. This clearly shows a smart economic ploy on the lines of ‘debt-trap diplomacy’ in which debt is carried out in bilateral relations with an occasional negative intent. That seems like the Chinese tactic at the moment. These generous loans are also seen as instruments to win the country’s all important United Nations General Assembly vote in favour of Chinese interests. According to Inter Press Service New Agency, “In the last three decades China has displaced the US as Africa’s largest trading partner and has financed more than 3,000 large, critical infrastructure projects. When the United National General Assembly met in 2007 to vote on North Korea’s (Chinese ally) human rights record, only 10 of the 56 African countries voted with the US-led western coalition.” As stated by Ranjit Bhushan, a journalist in The Moneycontrol, “It is generally believed that China has blatantly misused its UNSC membership with its overriding agenda of territorial expansionism under the garb and camouflage of ‘economic expansionism’.”
With the adoption of a market-based system and the best practices of foreign partners, China has emerged as a global power with accelerated global integration. Beijing’s economic model equipped with a huge labour force, thriving market and an export-centric approach necessitates it to explore obsequious markets to generate huge debts and inject investments to ensure soaring growth rates. The Forbes in a report in 2019, pointed out that China has been making investments in the sectors pertaining to technology, utilities, telecommunications in the developing and underdeveloped countries. For instance, Africa’s huge mobile phone market is mainly dominated by Chinese telecom providers. Chinese corporations have undertaken the building of dams and hydroelectric power plants in the Amazon and Pantagonia, and in this way China plays the role of a significant creditor in these regions.
Future of the Crisis
China has been subjected to backlashing with regard to its handling of the Coronavirus pandemic. Experts believe that China has been trying to steer away the world’s attention from ascertaining the origin of the Coronavirus by flaring up the various territorial disputes. In the face of China’s latest incursions into the Ladakh region Lt Gen Vinod Bhatia, India’s former Director-General of Military Operations (DGMO) stated, “Globally, China is losing its leverage as it is believed to have caused the pandemic. Industries are looking to move out of China. This is causing China to divert attention from the COVID-19 situation.”
The US and its allies have resorted to economic arm twisting by waging a trade war against China due to its expansionist policies, unfair trade practices like currency manipulation, dumping of goods and infringement on intellectual property. Media backlash has been witnessed from news outlets like Fox News thoroughly criticising China for its policies.
With the possibility of a modern day cold war being waged, experts believe that an alliance similar to that of a Quad comprising the United States, Japan, India and Australia can come to task and counter the Chinese threat. The upcoming US Presidential election is likely to play a huge role in ascertaining the path forward. Russia, once an arch enemy during the Obama administration, has found a new sympathiser in the form of US President Donald Trump. As highlighted in The American Interest, President Trump had indicated to reward Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia with a G-7 membership and a visit to Washington. In his recent comment President Trump said, “Russia and us have developed a very good relationship. As you know we worked on the oil problem together.” With a change in the administration and the Democratic Party coming to power, renewed hostilities with Russia will come up and a certain can be expected between the US and China.
The Trump administration has been against China for quite some time now. Mike Pompeo, the Secretary of State, speaking at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library in California in July, used references from the Cold War to lambaste China and had called for an end to ‘blind engagement’ with China.
President Trump waged a 20 months long trade war with China to predominately counter the threats to the dollar’s status as the reserve currency and to maintain the near monopoly in digital and Hi-Tech space. China and the US signed phase 1 of the Trade Deal on 13 December 2019, according to which the US agreed to provide tariff relief to Chinese goods in return for China’s promise of increasing purchase of American goods and addressing concerns pertaining to intellectual property, currency manipulation and agriculture.
The current hostilities might be an American strategy to bring the Chinese back to the negotiation table and it is in China’s interest to devise a smart strategy to forge economic alliances with the US. China, being the world’s second largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity has the economic might to engage with the United States unlike India, which might find itself in an unfavourable spot if and when a China-United States trade deal is signed, perhaps putting the claims of the Indian rise in a box.
