27 July 2020, NIICE Commentary 5685
Dr. Shubhra Chaturvedi
The tension building up in the international relations post COVID-19, has given rise to new sources of threats and expectations in the world. During the newly found quest of finding a replacement for the failing United States’ leadership, the nuclear status emerges as an important quality. Nuclear weapons have a unique quality of making a state relevant mere by possession. After their advent itself, the original guardians, the US and Russia had started looking for ways to avoid horizontal proliferation, however, the lack of trust between them resulted in incentivisation of nuclear weapons on the contrary.
There have been new actors in the nuclear club over the years, and each has shown a different facet of nuclear possession. The pandemic that spread from Wuhan, China resulted in economic and political insecurities over the world. In times when countries are struggling for survival, talks between the US and Russia were held on 22 June 2020 to negotiate the future of nuclear disarmament. They did not offer anything consequential. With the expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) due in February 2021, the negotiations were of major relevance. However, the failure of a concrete result indicates lack of urgency among the states to pursue that immediately, though a step towards nuclear disarmament by the superpower could have been a source of confidence for the world at the moment.
China figures as an important actor at the moment for the American decision to avoid appearing ‘soft’. The concern for the US is due to the speculations regarding China’s rise against the crumbling image of the US. In this scenario, India emerges as a prospective ally for the US with an image of being a responsible nuclear power and a benevolent one too. This article argues the Indian case for rise as a global power in the post COVID-19 era in context of nuclear dynamics.
India and the Fragile Nuclear Norms Order
The current state of nuclear norms is rickety. This has been the case since the advent of nuclear weapons. Whether it is the Baruch Plan of 1940s, or the recent US withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty, or the recent public release of the Russian Defence policy paper emphasising the relevance of deterrence; the mutual lack of trust between the custodians has always been visible. In fact, there were reports of a low yield nuclear test conducted by China. Even, the US administration hinted that a nuclear test was under consideration after a gap of 28 years. All these indicate a casual approach towards the nuclear norms in place.
In this scenario, India surfaces as a norm protector. The two yardsticks that can be used to evaluate the leadership qualities of a nuclear power are – deterrence capability and responsible tendency.
A closer look at the Indian nuclear behaviour proves its capabilities to emerge as a responsible stake holder. India has an impeccable record of non-proliferation, has a voluntary moratorium on nuclear testing since 1998. It has a “No First Use” (NFU) policy enshrined in its nuclear doctrine and nuclear minimalism appears to be its philosophy. Despite the difference in capabilities with respect to China, India is working on its Arihant class naval fleet, the Agni V Inter-continental Ballistic Missile and the Indigenous Aircraft carrier INS Vikrant is up for trial. That handles the deterrent aspect of its nuclear weapons programme.
The next step is the nuclear responsibility. India has practiced nuclear restraint in times like the Kargil War of 1998 and the Bombay attacks of 2008. India put a strong leg forward with the Balakot strike of 2019 followed by an official statement by the Indian government. That altered the ‘soft power’ image that India has had after following restraint in response to the attacks of its territory. It has stayed away from any in correct nuclear signaling in times of crisis and handled the border standoff with China in May 2020 too with caution. Its benevolence was seen through its health diplomacy to countries such as Maldives, Kuwait and Sri Lanka.
Since the announcement made by the World Health Organisation announcing the spread of COVID-19 from Wuhan, China; there has been a lot of international blame games. Alliances like the Quad Plus (US, Japan, Australia, India, New Zealand, South Korea, Vietnam), Democratic 10 (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, US, the European Union) are all working towards ‘containing’ the Chinese rise. India figures as an important actor in both (it is an observer for the D-10). Indian Prime Minister Modi was seen trying to rekindle the spirit of the Non-Aligned Movement, he has pitched for an emergency fund to be set up for SAARC countries and likewise been vocal about the need for regional cooperation to fight the pandemic.
Challenges for India
Despite the factors favouring India, there are some foundational concerns about the country.
Itty Abraham opined in The Wire that India has some serious challenges before it can appear on the global map that include poverty, gender violence, economic insecurity and religious conflicts. In addition to that, India in not on cordial terms with its nuclear neighbours. In fact China was the reason behind India going ahead with its first set of nuclear tests in 1974. India has watched over Pakistan’s nuclear status, weapons development and relations with the other powers closely. In fact South Asia is a constant subject of speculations about a nuclear war by experts all over the world.
The Indian NFU policy has been criticised for being a mere tool for hypocrisy and a calculative strategy for dual behaviour. Moreover, the Indian Defence Minister in 2019 suggested that the future of the policy depended on the circumstances. That indicated possibility of doing away with the commitment too. This caused quite a stir.
The nuclear deal with the United States and the less intrusive additional protocol that the International Atomic Energy Agency agreed to give India are also strong evidences of the exceptionalism that the country has seen. This has often led to hue and cries by developing countries addressing their concerns about the nuclear norms being discriminatory.
Verdict
The current scenario with the American leadership being questioned translated to the US reaching out to allies and India is a strong contender amongst them. If the “neighbourhood first” policy is worked upon with long term strategic goals in mind, the support will work in India’s favour. India being a democracy works towards an additional advantage.
In a shift towards multilateralism, India has a nuclear capability, an ability to align with the western powers and yet preserve its sovereignty, experience of traversing a journey from being an outsider, to an important participant in the nuclear debates and an unintentional geographical placement next to China. In a tussle between nuclear responsibility and capability, the former will triumph and that will work in India’s favour.
